Democratic Voters Prefer Progressive Policies, Not Centrist Policies
By Sean McElwee, Jack Nicol, and John Ray
On Friday, Upshot / Siena polling suggested that Democratic voters want a candidate who would “promise to find common ground with Republicans,” “be more moderate than most Dems” and “promise to bring politics in Washington back to normal.” Many pundits used this to suggest that “online” progressives don’t represent the party more broadly, and that voters seek a moderate nominee. Polling from Data for Progress and YouGov Blue tell a different story. We find that when voters are given the choice between a progressive and a more centrist policy, they overwhelmingly prefer the more progressive options. A previous Data for Progress and YouGov Blue conjoint experiment showed similar results, with Democratic voters supporting an outsider candidate over an establishment candidate and ambitious climate policy over a more centrist options.
In a recent survey, we asked respondents to choose between two different policies and were given the option to say they were not sure between the two policies. The different policies in each question were randomized so that some respondents saw Policy A first and some saw Policy B first. The charts included below summarize the results for Democrats in our sample. These results come from two surveys, the first of which had 500 respondents who were either Democrats or Independents who leaned toward the Democrats, the second of which had 551 Democrats or Independents who leaned toward the Democrats. We based our wording as best we could on actually existing policies from centrist and progressive organizations.
Below, we summarize the results: Progressive policies are overwhelmingly preferred by Democrats to more centrist alternatives. Across the board, Democrats are prepared to help expand healthcare, fight inequality, and protect the environment.
One of our first items included policies designed to combat climate change. For climate change, respondents were asked:
Even if it’s not exactly right, which policy would you prefer to address climate change?
<1> We should tax carbon and then reduce sales taxes so that market mechanisms can determine the most effective ways to reduce emissions without hurting consumers
<2> We should guarantee every American who wants one a job in the clean energy economy, so that people previously employed in fossil fuel sectors still have jobs
<3> Not sure
There, we see that fully half of Democrats preferred a clean energy jobs guarantee, with the rest being split between the carbon tax and being unsure how they felt. By a clear and statistically discernible margin, Democrats prefer a clean energy jobs guarantee.
Next, we asked respondents about what to do about elderly poverty in the United States. Currently, there is some debate about how to complete the mission begun by Social Security, whether it involve creating new jobs for the elderly to help contribute to the community
Even if it’s not exactly right, which policy would you prefer to reduce elderly poverty?
<1> Creating a Retiree Corps, providing part-time jobs at an untaxed salary for elderly in fields like childcare and early child education
<2> Raising the amount of Social Security benefits retirees receive, paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy
<3> Not sure
By an even larger margin, about two-thirds of Democratic voters simply want to raise Social Security benefits. While it may seem intuitive to think Democrats would simply prefer to raise benefits than to create a new program, this is actually not the case in some other domains, where there is a clear appetite for new government programs that provide jobs. Here, Democrats agree that raising benefits is the most effective means of helping alleviate elderly poverty.
We then asked voters how they felt about future reforms to the credit services industry. With several Presidential candidates having proposed ideas for such reforms, as well as legislation pending in the House, we tested two versions of credit services reform against one another. We asked voters,
Even if it’s not exactly right, which policy would you prefer to address consumer financial protection?
<1> We should require credit companies to disclose any and all fees consumers would face when using their products
<2> We should cap credit card interest rates at 10 percent and ban additional fees and charges
<3> Not sure
While about 1 in 3 Democrats prefer requiring credit providers to disclose the fees consumers face, over half side with a new interest rate cap on credit cards. As some credit products can include interest rates that top out at over one hundred percent, this is perhaps not surprising. Capping interest rates removes the onus on consumers to pore over fine print in credit services contracts, and instead sets expectations that credit products will have reasonable interest rates.
Perhaps of most direct importance to the current debate within Democratic circles, that survey also included an item directly pitting several potential reforms to the healthcare system against one another. Each of the major candidates and most of the minor candidates have put forward a concrete reform plan of some kind. Here, as asked voters,
Even if it’s not exactly right, which of the following comes closest to your view?
<1> We should have a single-payer health insurance system in which the government system covers all Americans and there are no private insurers
<2> We should have a public option where people can choose between a government option and a private insurance option
<3> We should have a system where the government regulates private insurance options and provides a government option only to Americans over 65 or who are low-income
<4> Not sure
While in other projects we have found clear evidence voters want the government to establish new programs for the manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical drugs, and for other reforms to healthcare, here we show that Democrats favor a single-payer system over a private system that includes a public option.
About 42 percent of Democrats say they would prefer a single payer system, even when told that such a system would eliminate the option of having private insurance. About 37 percent prefer adding a public option to the existing healthcare system. Just 9 percent prefer a regulated market such as we have in the current system, which includes fewer voters than those who were unsure how they felt about what our healthcare system should have.
On another survey also of US voters, which fielded from August 15-17, 2019 and included 551 Democrats and Independents who leaned toward the Democrats, we asked voters to choose between some head-to-head comparisons of policies as with the previous survey. Some of these policy pairs -- for example, the pair that asked respondents to choose between expanding Medicaid and improving Obamacare -- compared two ideas both popular among Democrats and broadly describable as “center left” versus “left.” Other pairs -- for example, the one pitting “clean infrastructure jobs” against “tax cuts” as a means of dealing with a recession -- compared ideas from the left against ideas from the right.
The first item asked,
Even if it’s not exactly right, which policy would you prefer to increase access to healthcare?
<1> We should expand Medicaid such that it covers all individuals earning less than 125 percent of the poverty line
<2> We should create regulated private insurance markets where people can purchase health insurance and subsidize low-income people to ensure they can afford it
<3> Not sure
As with the other survey we report on here, voters said they preferred expanding Medicaid to cover low-income individuals rather than to focus solely on the current system provided by the Affordable Care Act. By a 64-23 margin, Democratic voters support expanding Medicaid.
We found Democratic voters overwhelmingly favor raising the minimum wage. Some wealth transfers of this kind enjoy support across the political spectrum and raising the minimum wage has been a component of the Democratic agenda for several years now.
Even if it’s not exactly right, which policy would you prefer to increase wages?
<1> We should provide a tax break to low-income workers to incentivize them to enter the workforce without increasing costs to employers
<2> We should raise the minimum wage above $15 per hour for all jobs and provide an annual cost of living adjustment to the minimum wage
<3 fixed> Not sure
By an overwhelming 72-16 margin, Democratic voters support raising the minimum wage over providing new tax breaks. While the earned income tax credit has been a staple of poverty relief for many years, Democratic voters have now shown a clear appetite to outright require new wages.
To once again drill down on the question of what to do about the future of Social Security, on this wave of the survey we asked voters how to deal with the long term solubility of America’s retirement insurance program. For each of the past few cycles, Republican presidential candidates have proposed policies that would involve either raising the retirement age, lowering benefits, making benefits conditional on other things like work status, or by switching out benefits through tax credits. To get at these options, we asked voters,
Even if it’s not exactly right, which policy would you prefer to ensure the long-term sustainability of Social Security?
<1> We should raise the retirement age to 69
<2> We should raise taxes on those earning in the top income tax bracket
<3 fixed> Not sure
As this item essentially pitted the mainstream Republican solution against the mainstream Democratic solution to the problem of long term Social Security sustainability, it is not surprising to see Democrats prefer raising taxes on the top earners. By fully an 83-5 percent margin, Democratic voters clearly prefer raising the retirement age.
Finally, we compared two plans to help deal with the issue of college affordability in the United States. We asked voters to compare two plans that would either make it easier for families to save for college, or would outright provide for free community and state college for all Americans. Specifically, we asked,
Even if it's not exactly right, which of the following would you prefer to increase access to a college education in the United States?
<1> Provide subsidies for families to start new college savings accounts that would help them save for the long term
<2> Provide free state and community college tuition for families earning less than $125,000 per year
<3> Not sure
Across a wide range of issues, when Democrats are offered a centrist and progressive option, they prefer a progressive option.
Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee) is a co-founder of Data for Progress.
Jack Nicol is a Political Analyst at YouGov Blue.
John Ray (@johnlray) is a Senior Political Analyst at YouGov Blue.
Data for Progress and YouGov Blue recently fielded two surveys of registered voters and posed a series of questions about support for several differing potential policies in healthcare, elderly care, financial protections, climate change, and other policies of importance and interest to Democratic and progressive voters. The first of those surveys fielded from September 9 through September 11, 2019, and the second fielded from August 15 through August 19, 2019. Each survey, within it's respective fielding window l, was weighted to be representative of the population of US voters by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice.