Voters—Including Republicans—Think Climate Change is Making Weather More Extreme
By Danielle Deiseroth, Marcela Mulholland, and Julian Brave NoiseCat
Executive Summary
A majority of voters agree that the weather where they live is different than it was ten years ago
A majority of voters agree that weather-related disasters are becoming more extreme, with a growing share of voters who “strongly agree”
A growing majority of voters agree that weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme because of climate change
In the wake of Hurricane Laura and at the onset of the California Wildfires, Data for Progress started asking voters three questions about extreme weather events and climate change in our weekly national surveys of likely voters. Since we started asking these questions, the wildfires have caused unprecedented devastation along the West Coast, and several more hurricanes have taken shape in the Atlantic Ocean. The public opinion impacts of these natural disasters are reflected in the early results of this tracking poll.
First, we asked voters to choose from several statements about how different the weather is where they live now compared to the weather ten years ago. In Week 1, 33 percent of voters said the weather is “a little different”, 33 percent said the weather is “much different”, 27 percent said they “have not noticed any changes”, and seven percent said they “don’t know”. In Week 2, there was statistically insignificant variation in the responses. However, in Week 3, the percentage of voters who said they “have not noticed any changes” dropped sharply from 25 percent to 19 percent. This decline increased the gap between the majority of voters who agree that the weather where they live has changed over the past 10 years, which held steady week over week, and the minority of voters who have not noticed any changes in the weather.
Next, we asked voters if they agree or disagree that weather-related disasters, like hurricanes and wildfires, are becoming more extreme. In Week 1, voters agreed that weather-related disasters are becoming more extreme by a 57-point margin (75 percent agree, 18 percent disagree). This margin remained relatively unchanged over the next two weeks, at 59 points in Week 2 (76 percent agree, 17 percent disagree) and 58 points in Week 3 (74 percent agree, 16 percent disagree). However, among voters who agree that weather-related disasters are growing more extreme, the share of voters who “strongly agree” grew six points between Weeks 2 and 3 (42 percent to 48 percent).
Lastly, we asked voters if they think weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme because of climate change, or because of natural year-over-year variations in the weather. In Week 1, a majority of voters (51 percent) agreed that weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme because of climate change, while a minority (39 percent) agreed that natural year-over-year variations are the cause. Over the following two weeks, agreement that climate change is the cause of extreme weather and natural disasters grew two points, from 51 to 53 percent, while agreement that natural year-over-year variations is the cause of more extreme weather fell six points, from 39 percent to 33 percent.
Notably, agreement that weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme because of climate change grew five points among voters who self-identify as Republicans between Week 1 and Week 3, from 31 percent to 36 percent. Meanwhile, the percentage of voters who agree weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme because of climate change remained relatively unchanged among voters who self-identify as Democrats and independents.
While these results represent only three weeks’ worth of data, several key trends are emerging. First, a clear majority of voters agree that the weather is different where they live compared to the weather a decade ago, with a growing gap between voters who observe differences in the weather and those that have not observed any changes. Next, a majority of voters agree that weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme, with a growing share of voters who “strongly agree” compared to those that “somewhat agree”. Notably, the sharp increase in the percentage of voters who “strongly agree” that weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme occurred after widespread images of San Francisco’s orange sky due to wildfire smoke made national headline news. Lastly, there is a growing majority of voters who agree that weather and natural disasters are becoming more extreme because of climate change.
All of these trends are indicative of the growing pervasiveness of the climate crisis and increased awareness among the public about changes in the climate. We can expect such trends to continue as the climate crisis worsens and its impacts become harder and harder to ignore. The apocalyptic reality we are spiraling towards is only coming closer-—in many ways is already here—and voters are taking notice.
Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Climate Data Analyst for Data for Progress
Marcela Mulholland (@x3Marcela_) is Deputy Director for Climate for Data for Progress
Julian Brave NoiseCat (@jnoisecat) is Vice President of Policy & Strategy for Data for Progress
Survey Methodology
Week 1: From August 28 to August 30, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,743 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.3 percentage points
Week 2: From September 4 to September 5, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,231 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points
Week 3: From September 11 to September 14, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,212 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points
Question Wording
Which statement comes closer to your view?
The weather where I live is much different than it was 10 years ago
The weather where I live is a little different than it was 10 years ago
I have not noticed any changes in the weather where I live over the past 10 years
Don’t know
Do you agree or disagree that weather-related disasters, like hurricanes and wildfires, are becoming more extreme?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know
Which statement comes closer to your view?
Weather and natural disasters, like hurricanes and wildfires, are becoming more extreme because of climate change
Weather and natural disasters, like hurricanes and wildfires, are becoming more extreme because of natural year over year variations in the weather
Don’t know