The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Made Voters More Supportive of the Green New Deal
By Sean McElwee, Julian NoiseCat and John Ray
While the climate movement tries to reduce spills and cool the earth, pundits spill oceans of ink and expel clouds of hot air on how progressives should be marketing saving the earth. As Data for Progress has reported elsewhere, policies like the Green New Deal have remained popular despite years of sustained attacks by Republicans. It is overall popular in the most hotly contested battleground Congressional districts of the cycle. Climate is particularly important among young and disaffected voters, who feel previous generations have not done what is needed to protect the planet.
And during the coronavirus pandemic, support for climate action is even stronger. Back in July 2018, Data for Progress was among the first organization to directly test the question of a green jobs program. With YouGov Blue, we fielded a survey of 1,515 US voters[1] and asked about such a program. Specifically, we asked,
Would you [support or oppose] giving every American who wants one a job scaling up renewable energy, weatherizing homes and office buildings, developing mass transit projects, and maintaining green community spaces?
In July 2018, such a policy enjoyed considerable public support, with about 55 percent of voters supporting the policy, about 18 percent opposing it, and about 28 percent of voters being unsure how they felt. Unsurprisingly, support was driven by Democratic voters, with about 76 percent of Democrats supporting the policy, along with 47 percent of Independents and just 36 percent of Republicans.[2] We ran the same wording on a sample of 1,050 US voters. Each sample was weighted to the same frame. Support for the policy has since grown to about 69 percent support. This includes an overwhelming 88 percent of Democrats, a narrow majority of 53 percent of Independents, and about 48 percent of Republicans.
While that’s a pretty good chunk of Republican voters, we caution that the share of Republicans who are opposed to such a policy is overall unchanged. Rather, the share who are unsure how they felt has gone down. Indeed, this is the case for Democrats and Independents as well. In other words, increased polarization explains much of this movement, with those who were unsure having now chosen a side.
We all know another reason why this may be a particularly good time for a jobs program: The current unemployment rate has jumped into the double digits, with Data for Progress estimating that younger people are particularly hard-hit by Trump’s failure to respond to the pandemic. As all Americans are now living through the reality of conservatism, a failed philosophy which holds that the poor must die at work to provide momentary ease for the wealthy, it is not surprising to see support for a government jobs program increasing.
At the same time, other progressive policies have grown in popularity. In May of 2019, Data for Progress and YouGov Blue polled the Green New Deal on a national sample of US voters [3], asking,
As you may know, the Green New Deal is a proposal to: significantly reduce carbon pollution and create jobs by investing trillions of government dollars in infrastructure, wind, and solar energy, and in more efficient buildings and transportation systems. Based on what you know, do you [support or oppose] the Green New Deal?
Back in May of 2019, about 47 percent of voters supported the Green New Deal. That number has now grown past the majority threshold, to about 59 percent. This includes increases in support among Democrats and Republicans, but not among Independents. In May of 2019, about 43 percent of Independents reported supporting the Green New Deal, with about 35 percent opposing it. Since then, those numbers have flipped, with 38 percent of Independents now supporting the Green New Deal and 42 percent opposing it.
The Green New Deal involves significant new government investment in the economy, which Data for Progress has already found to be extremely popular in the time of coronavirus. As such, these results are in line with changes in Americans’ thinking across the policy landscape as we are forced to confront what happens when a failed Administration faces a crisis.
While more data is always needed, and we caution against drawing grand conclusions in the durability of political attitudes amidst a crisis, it is clear that progressive environmental policies have held their own against years of rightwing attacks. The efforts of progressive activists, legislators, and experts have not been in vain.
Sean McElwee is the founder of Data for Progress.
Julian NoiseCat is Vice President of Policy & Strategy of Data for Progress.
John Ray is a Senior Political Analyst at YouGov Blue.
[1] On behalf of Data for Progress, YouGov Blue conducted a survey of US registered voters using YouGov's online panel. The survey fielded from 2018-07-14 to 2018-07-17. The survey included 1,515 US registered voters and was weighted to be representative of the population by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 US Presidential vote choice. The mean of the weights is 1, and range from 0.5 to 3.5.
[2] On behalf of Data for Progress, as part of its 2020 Core tracker service, YouGov Blue fielded a survey including 1,046 US voters. The sample was weighted to be representative of the population of US voters by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice. The weights range from 0.2 to 6.1.
[3] On behalf of Data for Progress, YouGov Blue conducted a survey of US registered voters using YouGov's online panel. The survey fielded from 2019-05-13 to 2019-05-119. The survey included 1,083 US registered voters and was weighted to be representative of the population by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 US Presidential vote choice. The mean of the weights is 1, and range from 0.2 to 4.