Democrats Are Poised To Take The Virginia State Senate
Sean McElwee, co-founder - Data for Progress
Colin McAuliffe, co-founder - Data for Progress
Ryan O’Donnell, Senior Adviser - Data for Progress
Henry Hoglund, Senior Polling Adviser - Data for Progress
Democrats are favored to take a majority in the State Senate tomorrow. Our polling suggests a pick-up of three Senate seats for the Democratic Party, which, combined with a likely win in the House of Delegates, would give the Democratic Party a trifecta in the Old Dominion for the first time since 1993. We also found that a progressive agenda remains popular in the Senate battleground districts.
Our polling shows majority support throughout the Senate battleground for a progressive agenda, including drug price negotiation, a Green New Deal, Medicaid expansion and free insulin. In many districts, support for these policies outrun the support for the Democratic candidate in the district. This suggests candidates can win even in the battleground running on an agenda Beltway pundits consider “too liberal,” which includes Medicaid expansion, the Green New Deal, and Medicare drug pricing.
Support for free insulin commands majorities in every district polled. Across the full set of swing districts, support for free insulin was 79 percent, while opposition was just 10 percent. Similarly, support for Medicare drug pricing negotiation was 73 percent, as opposed to 13 percent opposed. We asked the questions: “Would you support or oppose allowing the government to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies about the prices of all prescription drugs” and “Would you support or oppose an executive order ending the patents on ten high cost drugs such as insulin, allowing for generic versions of the drugs to be produced?”
We see similar results for a progressive agenda on a clean energy transition as laid out in the Green New Deal. Across the full set of swing districts, support for a clean energy transition was 62 percent, with 29 percent of respondents opposed. We asked the question: “Would you support or oppose transitioning to 100% clean energy in Virginia by 2050?” Fully 60 percent of respondents or more in each senate swing district expressed support for a clean energy transition, again outpacing support for the majority of Senate nominees.
We also tested a Green New Deal with a tax hike. We told voters that, “The Green New Deal is a plan to create millions of jobs by transitioning to 100 percent clean energy and investing in public infrastructure, paid for by increasing income taxes on individuals earning more than $200,000 a year. Do you support or oppose the Green New Deal?” Even with explicit tax hikes, the Green New Deal was above water in nearly every swing district and was often more popular than the Democratic candidate on the ballot.
Finally, Medicaid expansion, which was expanded in 2018 in Virginia and went into effect January 1, 2019, shows positive support throughout the battleground. This validates longstanding efforts in 2017 and 2018 to elect a Democratic majority to enact expansion and to fight for it in the ensuing legislative session. Medicaid Expansion holds above 60 percent support in the battleground districts polled here and is a strong indication that successfully enacted progressive politics are a winner for Democrats at the ballot box.
Methodology:
Between October 24th and October 27th, 2019, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,294 registered voters matched to the voter file in swing State Senate districts in Virginia using a text-to-web survey from respondents from a commercial voter file. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, urbanicity, marital status, race, income, voting history using multilevel regression and poststratification. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ± 2.4.
Questionnaire:
Would you support or oppose allowing the government to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies about the prices of all prescription drugs?
Strongly support
Support
Oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Would you support or oppose an executive order ending the patents on ten high cost drugs such as insulin, allowing for generic versions of the drugs to be produced?
Strongly support
Support
Oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Recently, Virginia expanded its Medicaid program to give health care coverage to more people. This increased the number of people getting insurance from Medicaid by 400,000 people. To pay for the expansion, the state pays 10 percent of the cost and the federal government pays the rest. Do you support or oppose the state’s decision to expand its Medicaid program?
Strongly support
Support
Oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
The Green New Deal is a plan to create millions of jobs by transitioning to 100 percent clean energy and investing in public infrastructure, paid for by increasing income taxes on individuals earning more than $200,000 a year. Do you support or oppose the Green New Deal?
Strongly support
Support
Opposes
Strongly oppose
Don’t Know
"Would you support or oppose transitioning to 100% clean energy in Virginia by the year 2050?"
Strongly support
Support
Opposes
Strongly oppose
Don’t Know