Voters Support Deficit Spending When Tied to Material Benefits
By Ethan Winter and Isa Alomran
If Joe Biden wins the presidency, he, along with Democrats in Congress, should add to the national debt. The economics of this couldn’t be sounder. With interest rates as low as they are, there’s not much of a reason not to—nevermind the exigencies of the coronavirus pandemic, economic contraction, and climate change that all demand a massive fiscal stimulus.
The political messaging around this, however, isn’t necessarily a slam dunk. Voters can be apprehensive about deficit spending, though we should be specific about the mechanics. It isn’t that voters possess well articulated opinions about the proper debt to GDP ratio, indeed, far from it. Rather, data scientist David Shor explains, voters want to do things that are good for “business.” So when Democrats take power and want to add the debt to fund generally quite popular social programs, the rich—often working through the Republican Party—will strive to cast this in unfavorable terms.
What this means is that messaging around the politics of deficit-spending becomes important. As part an October survey, Data for Progress sought to test different messaging strategies around the national debt. In addition, we sought to gauge how the coronavirus pandemic may affect attitudes around the deficit.
The “anti-deficit” message we used is as followed:
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
We did this because we’ve found that this message is one politicians frequently deploy and has proven historically effective in thwarting spending.
In our October survey, we used the following “pro-deficit” message:
The government should spend money to help people, by making healthcare more affordable, fixing our crumbling infrastructure, investing in schools. It’s okay if this increases the debt.
Tested against one another, we find that, among all likely voters, 53 percent are persuaded by the pro-deficit messaging. Likely voters that self-identify as Democrats overwhelmingly agree with the pro-deficit message, at 72 percent. Likely voters that self-identify as Republicans were in opposition by a margin of seven percent, with 50 percent preferring the anti-deficit message and 43 percent supporting the pro-deficit message.
It’s worth pausing to consider why this pro-deficit message works. It centers around material benefits. Through deficit spending, we can generally help people, make healthcare cheaper, fix infrastructure, and increase funding for schools. These are all fairly concrete concepts and broadly popular with likely voters.
It’s worth also looking at a “pro-deficit” message that failed, and to do this, we turn to our August survey. We used the same anti-deficit message and, this time, tested against the following message:
The national debt isn't a large problem compared to the other threats we face. Leaving a national debt to our children is far better than leaving them with a warming planet. We need to invest in our future even if it means more debt.
Here, we find that only 26 percent of likely voters prefer the pro-deficit message, that is, that the national debt isn’t a large problem compared to the other threats we face, such as a warming planet. The anti-deficit message, meanwhile, is preferred by 60 percent of likely voters.
This message, first, tells likely voters not to worry about something, rather than validating concern. In addition, it promises to do something they’ve been led to think is bad—deficit spending—without delivering benefits to them specifically but, rather, their hypothetical children.
The coronavirus pandemic adds urgency to conversation around the national debt. The deficit itself has also increased.
As a result, we tested a pro-deficit message that foregrounds the coronavirus pandemic. Specifically, that:
Coronavirus cases are rising and Americans are losing their jobs. We need to get aid to people now, even if it means increasing the debt.
We find that among all likely voters, 58 percent say that this message, which ties a response to the coronavirus to increasing the debt, comes closer to their view. This message outperforms by five-percentage-points the non-coronavirus pro-deficit message from the October survey. While there’s still some partisan sorting, Republicans find the messaging that relates the coronavirus to a need for deficit spending much more persuasive with a one-percentage-point plurality, 49 percent to 48 percent, saying the pro-deficit message comes closer to their view than the anti-deficit message. A majority (71 percent) of Democrats, again, report that the pro-deficit message comes closer to their view.
When the coronavirus and economic downturn it created are counterposed against the national debt, likely voters report by an overwhelming margin to be more concerned about the former than they are about the latter. Among all likely voters, 73 percent say they are more concerned about the pandemic than the national debt. Eighty-three percent of Democrats and 67 percent of Republicans say they’re more concerned about coronavirus and the economy than the national debt.
These surveys outline effective messaging that can be used to justify deficit spending. By highlighting the near-term material benefits adding to the debt can deliver to the voters, it becomes more popular. In addition, emphasizing that responding to the coronavirus pandemic may demand deficit spending is a line that likely voters find persuasive. In general, likely voters are far more concerned with the pandemic than the deficit.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org
Isa Alomran is an intern at Data for Progress.
From October 17 through October 18, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,195 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Question Wording
What comes closer to your view?
The government should spend money to help people, by making healthcare more affordable, fixing our crumbling infrastructure, investing in schools. It's okay if this increases the debt.
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
Don't know
Which comes closer to your view?
The national debt isn't a large problem compared to the other threats we face. Leaving a national debt to our children is far better than leaving them with a warming planet. We need to invest in our future even if it means more debt.
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
Don’t know
What comes closer to your view?
Coronavirus cases are rising and Americans are losing their jobs. We need to get aid to people now, even if it means increasing the debt.
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
Don't know
In general, what are you more concerned about?
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic downturn it created
The rising national debt
Don’t know