Voters Want the Senate to Prioritize Coronavirus Relief Over a Supreme Court Nomination
By Ethan Winter and Danielle Deiseroth
After months of a stalemate, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi began negotiations earlier this week for a new federal coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package. This came to a screeching halt on Tuesday afternoon, however, when President Trump tweeted that he was instructing congressional Republicans to cease talks on a relief bill and instead focus on confirming Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. This abrupt end to coronavirus relief negotiations came hours after the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called for the government to provide more economic stimulus in anticipation of a possible second wave of the pandemic. (In a somewhat odd twist, Trump then “quote tweeted” an article that reported on Powell’s comments adding only “True!” What Trump meant by this really isn’t clear.)
In three states, North Carolina, Texas, and Montana -- all of which traditionally lean Republican -- we asked voters a similar question as to what the Senate should prioritize: Passing new coronavirus relief legislation, or confirming a new Supreme Court Justice. We find that voters in these states want the Senate to prioritize additional coronavirus economic relief. In North Carolina and Texas, this is the position of nearly two thirds of voters -- 67 percent and 66 percent, respectively. In both states, only about a quarter of voters want a judicial confirmation to be the Senate’s priority (25 percent in North Carolina and 26 percent in Texas). Lastly, in Montana, 56 percent of voters want to prioritize coronavirus relief while only 38 percent want to focus on a confirmation fight.
Though President Trump tweeted that negotiations would end on further economic stimulus until after Election Day, the words were Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s. As Eric Levitz points out, “Most Senate Republicans face no great risk of losing their seats to a Democrat this year or any other. For them, the main threat to their power is a primary challenge.” This absence of real small-d democratic accountability means that, Levitz contends, McConnell is largely free to make his power play, aided by the roughly seven-point Republican lean of the Senate.
Nonetheless, McConnell has now committed himself and his party to a course at odds with the preferences of many of their voters. How high the bill for this becomes remains to be seen but as the Senate map continues to expand the cost will only rise.
Late Tuesday evening, in an erratic series of Tweets, Trump called for Congress to pass a standalone bill for a new round of $1,200 stimulus checks. Nevermind that the Democratic Party in May passed a bill that would have, among things, done exactly this. While the President is treating the relief negotiations like an episode of his reality show staged from the comfort of the White House, millions of Americans are suffering. His posts and a reactionary Supreme Court Justice can’t pay people’s rents or make up for lost income. However, as our polling indicates, the President and Senate Republicans may have boxed themselves in. Come Election Day, they will face real consequences for their skewed priorities.
Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Climate Data Analyst for Data for Progress. You can email her at danielle@dataforprogress.org.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org.
Survey Methodology:
From September 30 to October 5, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 737 likely voters in Montana using-web panel and SMS respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.
From September 30 to October 5, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,285 likely voters in North Carolina using-web panel and SMS respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.
From September 30 to October 5, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1949 likely voters in Texas using web-panel and SMS respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points.
Question Wording:
Which of these should the Senate prioritize?
Passing new legislation to deal with the economic and health impacts of the coronavirus pandemic
Confirming a justice to fill the vacant seat on the Supreme Court
Don’t know