Voters Support Deficit Spending and Trust the Democratic Party More On Questions of the Debt
By Ethan Winter and Isa Alomran
This blog builds upon the findings of a previous post on likely voters’ attitudes towards the national debt and deficit-financed spending. In that first post, we discussed results from two surveys -- one conducted in October and the other in August -- that found that when deficit-spending is anchored to a promise of immediate, material benefits, voters become receptive to the idea. We also found that likely voters think the coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn are more important than the growing national debt.
As part of a second October survey, we sought to deepen our understanding of likely voters’ attitudes towards deficit spending. We again find that, under certain frames, likely voters are supportive of deficit spending. In addition, likely voters trust the Democratic Party on the question of the national debt more than the Republican Party.
In this October survey, we used the same “anti-deficit” message we employed previously:
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
This is both a strong message and one that politicians frequently use.
The first “pro-deficit” message we tested emphasizes that short-term deficit spending can generate long-term economic growth and that, eventually, these investments in the economy will pay for themselves. Specifically, likely voters were told:
To put our financial house in order, we need to invest money in the American people. In the short term, this may mean increasing the debt but in the long term these investments will pay for themselves by growing the economy and creating jobs.
We find that, among all likely voters, 54 percent are persuaded by the pro-deficit messaging. A majority (68 percent) of likely voters that self-identify as Democrats prefer the pro-deficit message. A plurality (49 percent) of likely voters that self-identify as Republicans also prefer the pro-deficit message.
We then tested another anti-deficit message, this time one which stressed the hypocrisy of those concerned about the national debt:
Concern about the national debt is hypocritical. Whenever politicians need money for a war or a tax break for the rich, there’s money to be had. We should use deficit spending to help the working and middle class instead.
We find that here, only 41 percent of likely voters prefer the pro-deficit message, compared to 48 percent that oppose it. We also find attitudes divided according to partisanship. A majority (55 percent) of Democrats were receptive to this pro-deficit message. A majority (67 percent) of Republicans, however, preferred the anti-deficit message.
We also asked likely voters if they would support deficit-financed aid to state and local governments. This supposed “blue state bailout” financed through deficit-spending is likely one of the major reasons Senate Republicans killed an additional round of fiscal stimulus.
States are required to have balanced budgets, which can create conditions that automate austerity. As revenue falls and expenses rise, cities and states would be forced to either hike taxes or cut spending, which often works only to deepen the recessionary spiral. These same conditions don’t, however, constrain the federal government.
We find that by a six-percentage-point margin, likely voters support aid to cities and states, even if it means increasing the national debt (49 percent support aid to cities and states, 39 percent oppose it). Attitudes are correlated with partisanship. Democrats back deficit-financed aid to states by a 52-point margin (71 percent support, 19 percent oppose). Republicans oppose it by a 43-point margin (25 percent support, 68 percent oppose).
During the Trump presidency, many in the “business community” (broadly defined) supported increasing the national debt, so long as this money was used for regressive tax hikes. A concern is that, if Biden were to win and the prospect that deficit-spending may be used to improve the material condition of lower- and middle-income United States residents rises, that these rich business owners will reverse their attitudes. They’ll then use their “disproportionate cultural influence” to discourage deficit-spending and Democrats will shrink from, for example, going big on fiscal stimulus.
To test whether this may work, we employed a pro- and con- framing. Typically, these questions position the Democratic and Republican views against one another. This time, however, we posed Democratic candidate for president Joe Biden against the business community. We said the former supports deficit-financed coronavirus relief while the latter says it’s time for belt tightening and that if the national debt grows too large it will be a drag on the economy, hurting everyone.
We find that by a 24-point margin, likely voters support Biden’s call for deficit-financed coronavirus relief, overruling the objections of the business community (57 percent support deficit spending, 33 want to tighten the belt). Attitudes generally are divided along partisan lines. Democrats backed the call for deficit-financed relief by a 53-point margin. While Republicans prefer belt tightening by a 23-point margin, 35 percent say that it’s actually alright to increase the national debt in the short term.
One way to think about how likely voters will respond to the increase in the salience of an issue is to ask them what party they trust more on the topic. We did this for the national debt and found that likely voters trust the Democratic Party more by a 14-point margin. Opinions are, unsurprisingly, split according to partisanship.
If Democrats win a trifecta, they should increase the national debt. Historically, concerns about the deficit among likely voters have been a drag on the popularity of Democratic priorities. These results offer further evidence that the effectiveness of these attacks may be ebbing. With messaging that connected increases in the national debt to economic growth, likely voters become open to the idea. Likely voters also support deficit-financed initiatives to state and local governments. Lastly, likely voters trust the Democratic Party on the debt more than they do the Republicans, suggesting that raising the salience of the topic may actually help rather than hurt Democrats.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org
Isa Alomran is an intern at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From October 23 to October 24, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1031 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points.
Question Wording
What comes closer to your view?
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
To put our financial house in order, we need to invest money in the American people. In the short term, this may mean increasing the debt but in the long term these investments will pay for themselves by growing the economy and creating jobs.
Don't know
What comes closer to your view?
Concern about the national debt is hypocritical. Whenever politicians need money for a war or a tax break for the rich, there’s money to be had. We should use deficit spending to help the working and middle class instead.
The government needs to balance its books the way a household would. If our national debt gets too large we all leave an unaffordable burden of debt to our children.
Don't know
In general, what are you more concerned about?
The coronavirus pandemic and the economic downturn it created
The rising national debt
Don't know
Many state governments are facing a decline in revenue and an increase in costs. When thinking about this, what comes closer to your view?
State and local governments should tighten their belts and either raise taxes or cut spending. The federal government shouldn’t increase the debt to bail them out.
The federal government should provide aid to state and local governments even if it means increasing the national debt.
Don't know
Some in the business community say that the national debt is growing out of control and that it’s time for the federal government to tighten its belt and get this problem under control. A large debt is bad for businesses and will slow economic growth, hurting everyone. Democratic candidate for President Joe Biden, meanwhile, argues that in the short term it’s okay to increase the national debt to get people relief who are hurting because of the coronavirus pandemic, reduce the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs for Americans, and tackle big problems like climate change. When thinking about this, what comes closer to your view?
The national debt has grown out of control. The time to tighten our belts is now
To help Americans in need it’s okay if we increase the national debt in the short term
Don't know
When it comes to the national debt, what party do you trust more?
The Democrats
The Republicans
Don't know