Michigan Polling Results

By Collin McDonough, Senior Adviser - Data for Progress

On Tuesday, March 10th, voters will head to the ballot box for Michigan’s presidential primary election. There are 125 delegates up for grabs, and both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have spent the days preceding the election trying to earn the support of Michigan’s Democratic voters.

In preparation for this, Data for Progress has conducted a survey of 320 likely Michigan voters from March 7th to March 9th conducted via text-to-web. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.5 points. Our results show Joe Biden with a 21-point lead over Bernie Sanders; two percent of voters support Tulsi Gabbard.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is coming off a strong showing on Super Tuesday after shoring up the endorsements of once-candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. He has since been endorsed by former candidates Kamala Harris, Michael Bloomberg, and Cory Booker. Notably, Biden also received endorsements from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. 

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders picked up steam during the first three national contests but has seen his momentum slow down in the following weeks. With the only other progressive in the race, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, dropping out last week, Michigan will be a barometer for how her supporters disseminate. 

Sanders has campaigned hard in Michigan since Friday--holding rallies in four cities across the state--along progressive champions like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Democratic presidential candidate Jesse Jackson. In 2016, Sanders faced Secretary Hillary Clinton in a Michigan race that had her favored by 21 points. Sanders won the primary. 

When asked their opinion on Biden, voters favored him by 39 points (68 percent favorable versus 29 percent unfavorable). Fifty-three percent of those who identify as Black or African American gave him a very favorable rating. While his support among those who consider themselves very liberal was under water (-5), he had a strong showing with those who are somewhat liberal or moderate (+41 and +67, respectively).

Sanders’s favorability was +24 (60 percent favorable versus 36 percent unfavorable). As usual, he performed well with younger voters and those who consider themselves liberal. Those under 45 had a +46 favorability rating of him, and those who consider themselves very liberal or somewhat liberal favored him by margins of +64 and +65, respectively. 

Michigan underwent several pro-voting right changes in Proposal 2 of 2018--including no-reason absentee voting and same-day voter registration--and it’s unclear how these changes will impact overall turnout. College towns like Ann Arbor and East Lansing have seen a “flooding” of students at their city clerk’s offices requesting absentee ballots and same-day registration the day before the election. 

In order to secure the Democratic nomination on the first ballot, 1,991 delegates are needed. Biden currently leads the delegate race 670-574. Michigan is the largest delegate count of the six states voting on Tuesday, and it will bring needed momentum to whichever candidate wins.

Data for Progress conducted a poll of 320 likely MI voters from 03/07/2020 to 03/09/2020. Likely voters were identified from the voter file and weighted to a likely electorate. The survey was conducted via text-to-web. The margin of error is +/- 5.5