Voters Support Aid To Cities And States, Oppose Ending Social Distancing
By Ilya Sheyman, Coronavirus Response Hub, Charlotte Swasey, VP Data and Polling, Data for Progress, Ethan Winter, Analyst, Data for Progress
Executive Summary
Voters support increased aid to cities and states rather than forcing them into bankruptcy
Voters overwhelmingly do not believe it is yet time to end social distancing
A majority of voters believe reopening states now would be dangerous and not worth it
The shutdowns necessary to enact social distancing and slow the spread of the coronavirus have had widespread economic impacts. They’ve forced businesses to shut down, laying off workers and disrupting supply lines, and brought many nonessential services to a halt. In addition to the personal impact on workers and business owners, this shutdown meant a loss of tax revenue, straining the budgets of already-struggling states and cities. Some municipalities have said that they would need to declare bankruptcy or make dramatic cuts to their services in order to survive this crisis.
As part of an April survey, Data for Progress sought to test support for additional federal aid to hardpressed states and cities while also testing support among voters for the continuation of social distancing measures and business closures.
We asked voters, specifically:
Would you support or oppose the federal government providing more aid to cities and states which are struggling with budget deficits and possible bankruptcy due to coronavirus? This might include money for education, elections, transit, and healthcare like Medicaid, and would prevent states from having to declare bankruptcy or make drastic budget cuts.
For response options, voters were provided a five-point scale ranging from “strongly support” to “strongly oppose.”
We found high levels of support for this proposal. Voters back the federal government providing more aid to cities and states by a 47-percentage-point margin (60 percent support, 13 percent oppose). Voters with college degrees are particularly supportive of this proposal, backing it by a 56-percentage-point margin (67 percent support, 11 percent oppose). Support for the proposal is also bipartisan: self-identifying Democrats back it by a 64-percentage-point margin (72 percent support, eight percent oppose) while self-identifying Republicans do so by a 36-percentage-point margin (54 percent support, 18 percent oppose).
In response to the economic crunch brought by the shutdowns, governors across the country are now beginning to release and even start to enact plans to “reopen” their states, ending social distancing and opening nonessential businesses. Recently a series of small protests advocating for reopening received wide news coverage, featuring protestors flouting social distancing guidelines and obstructing medical workers. While experts have warned that this would likely lead to a new wave of infections, reopening proponents argue that the economic impact caused by the closures is worse than the health impact of reopening.
We asked voters the following question:
Do you think states should end social distancing and reopen nonessential businesses right now?
We found that, overwhelmingly, voters want social distancing guidelines to remain in place and nonessential businesses to remain shuttered, with 63 percent opposing ending social distancing. This is even more unpopular among older voters, with seventy-one percent of voters over forty-five solidly opposed to the relaxing of social distancing guidelines. We also observe a slight sorting of attitudes along partisan lines with 77 percent of Democrats responding “no” while only 51 percent of Republicans felt the same.
In this last question, we asked voters to explicitly weigh the relative risks of reopening states along with potential benefits to the economy. Specifically, we posed voters the following question:
Some people have argued that governors who "reopen" their states by ending social distancing and reopening nonessential businesses are irresponsible and going to create more virus transmission and deaths. Other people say that governors should reopen their states so the economy can restart and economic impact be reduced. Which of the following comes closest to your view?
Voters were then offered the five following response options:
Reopening states would be very dangerous and the economic benefits are not worth it
Reopening states would be very dangerous but the economic benefits are worth it
Reopening states would be only a little dangerous and the economic benefits are worth it
Reopening states would be only a little dangerous but the economic benefits are not worth it
Reopening states would not be dangerous
We found that 50 percent of voters think that, at present, reopening states is both dangerous and not worth it. An added five percent, meanwhile, think that reopening states is a little dangerous and not worth it. This means that, in total, 55 percent of voters oppose the reopening of the economy, even when forced to confront an economic cost, the vast majority of whom consider reopening to be very dangerous.
Looking at those who support reopening, nineteen percent of voters think that reopening states is dangerous yet worth it and 21 percent of voters think reopening states is a little dangerous and worth it. This is a roughly even split in perceptions of danger among those who support reopening. Only 5 percent think reopening would not be dangerous. We find that even those who support ending social distancing and reopening business acknowledge the danger inherent in doing so.
Under this frame, where the potential risk of reopening states is counterposed against potential (and likely non-existent) economic benefit, we see a great deal of partisan sorting. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats think that the reopening states are currently not worth it while only 41 percent of Republicans do. Indeed, a majority of Republicans (53 percent) think that even when the risks of reopening states are taken into account, the economic benefits supersede any danger. This is a fairly compelling example of how partisan cues can shape attitudes. In a blog post published just over a month ago on March 26, we found that by a 25-percentage-point margin Republicans supported coronavirus response plan that would “sharply curtail[] public life and entails the shutting down of this country's economy.” Now, after Trump has cast doubts on the efficacy of state shut down, suggesting that the cure shouldn’t be worse than the disease, we’ve seen opinions among Republicans reverse. Among Democrats, meanwhile, attitudes are largely stable: about a month 65 percent of Democrats said they would support a plan that would entail the shutting down of the economy and now 68 percent of Democrats still think that the potential risk of reopening states outweighs any economic benefits.