Elizabeth Warren Leads the Vice Presidential Choice
Swing voters do not have a clear preference. Democratic voters are most excited to volunteer or donate for a campaign with Warren on the ticket
By Sean McElwee and John Ray
Perhaps the biggest question currently facing the Presidential campaign of Joe Biden is who will be the Vice Presidential nominee. The campaign has repeatedly pledged to nominate a woman. Here, we discuss recent polling on how voters feel about Biden’s likely pool of nominees.
Executive summary
Senator Elizabeth Warren remains the frontrunner among Democratic voters for Vice Presidential nominee, including among undecided voters, young Democratic voters, and young Democratic voters of color
About two-thirds of swing voters are unsure who Joe Biden should nominate
Elizabeth Warren is the preferred candidate of Democratic voters who have donated money to political campaigns recently
Warren has a slight advantage among middle class voters, while Harris has a clear advantage among higher-income voters
Data for Progress asked voters about the Vice Presidential race from three different angles. We asked voters which Vice Presidential nominee they would prefer, which nominee would make them most excited to donate to the campaign, and which nominee would make them most excited to volunteer for the campaign. We asked,
Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden is considering several candidates for Vice President. Which possible Vice President would you most prefer Joe Biden choose as his running mate?
<1> Kamala Harris
<2> Elizabeth Warren
<3> Amy Klobuchar
<4> Stacey Abrams
<5> Val Demings
<6> Keisha Lance Bottoms
<7> Susan Rice
<8> Gretchen Whitmer
<9> Tammy Duckworth
<10> Another candidate
<11> Don't know
Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden is considering several candidates for Vice President. Which possible Vice President would make you most excited to donate to the Democratic Presidential campaign? [same options]
Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden is considering several candidates for Vice President. Which possible Vice President would make you most excited to volunteer for the Democratic Presidential campaign? [same options]
Elizabeth Warren is currently the favorite among voters who reported they would vote for Joe Biden. About 25 percent of Biden voters report they prefer Elizabeth Warren, along with 23 percent who prefer Kamala Harris, 20 percent who are unsure, and 13 percent who report they would prefer Georgia Gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.
Elsewhere in the survey, we also asked voters if they had engaged in various forms of political activism such as donating to a political cause. This represents a small subset of voters, totaling about 35 percent of Biden voters who had given money to a cause recently (180 respondents). As such, we caution against overinterpation Among this population, the approximate preference order is the same as among Democratic voters overall. Elizabeth Warren is the most preferred nominee among Democratic voters who had given to a cause recently, with Harris in second place.
Of the voters who reported they were still unsure who they would vote for, about 65 percent reported they were unsure who Biden should pick. Our data suggests undecided voters do not have a make-or-break shortlist of their own for a Biden co-nominee. The overwhelming majority of undecided voters are unsure who Biden should pick.
Additionally, we find that Warren is the preferred Vice Presidential choice for voters under the age of forty-five. Fully 34 percent of Democratic voters under the age of forty-five prefer Warren as the Vice Presidential choice. This is true among non-white Democratic voters under the age of forty-five as well. About 34 percent of these voters reported Warren as their first choice, though 21 percent also were unsure who Biden should pick.
We caution that this ordering of candidates closely tracks the levels of name recognition they enjoyed in the Democratic presidential primary. Our evidence does not suggest that voters’ preferences are set in stone on the question of who the nominee should be. Even among Democratic activists who had donated to political causes recently, about 16 percent did not have a preference for who Biden chose. That said, unlike other candidates, Warren’s name recognition and overall favorabilities have generally persisted well beyond the primary, at least partially helping to explain her strong numbers here. Warren also leads among key demographics such as undecided voters and young non-white voters.
We observe a similar ordering of candidates when we ask voters which nominee would make voters most excited to donate to the campaign. Here, fully 29 percent of Democratic voters are unsure who would make them most excited to donate, but 24 percent who prefer Warren. Elizabeth Warren remains the frontrunner among the relatively small number of undecided voters who have an opinion, and is the outright preference among Democratic voters who have given money to a political cause recently.
On this item, undecided voters are overwhelmingly unsure who they would be most excited to see as Vice Presidential nominee. But among the few undecided voters who have an opinion, however, Warren clearly leads with 12 percent.
Young Democratic voters prefer Warren outright as well, with 32 percent selecting her and no other candidate breaking 20 percent. Here, we find that young non-white Democratic voters are split between Elizabeth Warren and Georgia voting rights leader and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, with Warren narrowly leading. About 32 percent of young non-white Democratic voters prefer Warren, and 28 percent prefer Abrams. Fully 22 percent remain undecided on this question.
Similarly, Democratic voters who had an opinion overall report they would be most excited to volunteer for a campaign with Warren on the ticket. But fully 35 percent of Democratic voters did not report a preferred candidate. Generally, the difference in preferences among these candidates is statistically and substantively small. That said, Warren maintains a persistent lead on most every one of these questions. Warren leads among young non-white voters who reported they had a preferred candidate with respect to those they would be most excited to volunteer for.
Sean McElwee @SeanMcElwee is a co-founder and the Executive Director of Data for Progress.
John Ray @johnlray is a senior political analyst at YouGov Blue.
From June 5 to June 7, YouGov Blue fielded a survey of 1,085 US voters on YouGov’s online panel. The sample was weighted to be representative of the population of US voters by age, sex, race, ethnicity, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice. The weights range from 0.1 to 6 with a standard deviation of 0.6.