Voters Support Extending The Expanded Unemployment Benefits
By Ethan Winter and Danielle Deiseroth
The expiration of the expanded unemployment benefits passed as part of “The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act” (the CARES Act) is imminent. The Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program provided those eligible with an extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits, money in addition to state benefits which typically replace 30 to 40 percent of people’s wages. The refusal of Republicans in Congress to extend the weekly $600 benefits will mean that some 25 million people will see their incomes slashed in the midst of a global pandemic and economic downturn. In material terms, the effect of this, coupled with the imminent expiration of the federal eviction moratorium, will be devastating.
As part of two July surveys, Data for Progress tested voters’ attitudes towards this program and how they would reconcile the fact that some on unemployment are making more than essential workers who are currently employed. On the three questions we tested here, we found high levels of support for extending the expanded benefit, that voters are more likely to back a candidate that supports extending it, and that voters want to see wages of essential workers increased, not unemployment benefits cut.
Support for extending this $600 is enormously popular, however. We asked voters if they’d support extending the benefit in full or if the benefit should be cut. We found that, overall, voters support extending the benefits in full by a 21-percentage-point margin. Voters who self-identify as Democrats overwhelmingly favor extending the benefits in full, preferring this to cutting the benefit by a 53-point margin. Voters who self-identify as Republicans, meanwhile, are split on the issue, with 43 percent supporting extending the benefit in full and 43 percent favoring cutting the benefit -- the remaining 14 percent weren’t sure.
Next, we asked voters if they’d be more or less likely to vote for a congressional candidate that would vote to extend the weekly $600 unemployment benefits. Overall, 35 percent of voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate that supports extending unemployment benefits. This proposal is most popular among Democrats, as nearly half (49 percent) of Democrats would be more likely to vote for a candidate that supports extending unemployment benefits. The extension of the benefit engenders support across party lines: Among Republicans, 34 percent would be more likely to vote for candidates that support extending unemployment benefits, compared to only 22 percent who said they would be less likely to vote for those candidates.
We then asked voters if essential workers should see their pay increased so they make as much as those on extended unemployment, or if those on unemployment should see their benefits decrease so they make less than an essential worker. Overall, voters support increasing the wages of essential workers rather than cutting unemployment benefits by a considerable 23-point margin. Raising wages for essential workers also enjoys bipartisan support. A majority of Democrats (63 percent) and nearly half of voters of Republicans (46 percent) support raising essential worker wages rather than decreasing unemployment benefits.
The failure to extend this program will be disastrous. The CARES Act Bot, a project of Data for Progress, has been tweeting out responses to two open end questions asked by voters. The first is how they’ve been helped by the $1,200 payments issued as part of the CARES Act and the expanded unemployment benefits. The second question asked voters what would happen to them if they lost the aid they received or didn’t receive more aid. Responses to the first question demonstrate unequivocally the efficacy of direct-transfers as welfare policy and underscore that this expanded benefit represents one of the greatest victories for the left in a generation. Responses to the second question underscore the consequences of letting this benefit lapse.
What this polling shows is that extending this unemployment benefit is popular with voters, this extension is an electoral winner, and that the electorate doesn’t want more austerity. Given a choice, most voters want to take care of everyone.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org.
Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Climate Data Analyst for Data for Progress.
From July 15 through July 16, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,235 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.
On July 17, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,225 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Question Wording
Which comes closer to your view?
We should keep existing unemployment benefits in place as we shouldn’t cut people’s income in the midst of a pandemic because they need this money for essentials like groceries and rent.
We should cut the size of people’s unemployment benefits as a way to encourage them to get back to work and because we must control a growing deficit.
Don’t know
Thinking about how you plan to vote in the 2020 congressional election, would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who voted to extend the $600 per week unemployment insurance benefit, which is set to expire at the end of July?
Much more likely
Much less likely
This will probably not affect my vote
Don’t know
As part of a coronavirus relief bill, the CARES Act, those who qualified for unemployment received an additional $600 per week in benefits for four months such that the average worker would see 100 percent of their wages replaced during the pandemic. Some have pointed out that this means that some on unemployment are now making more than essential workers, like grocery store workers, nurses, or first responders. When thinking about how to address this, what comes closer to your view?
Essential workers like grocery store workers, nurses, and first responders should see their pay increased so they make as much money as those on unemployment.
Those on unemployment should see their benefits decreased so that no one on unemployment makes more than an essential worker.
Don’t know