Black Athletes are Striking and Voters Support Them
By Julian Brave NoiseCat and Ethan Winter
On Wednesday, before game five of the first round NBA playoff series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic, Bucks players decided not to take the court in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Blake, a Black man, was shot seven times in the back by Kenosha Police Officer Rusten Sheskey. Blake remains in critical condition and, in a statement reported by the Associated Press, his family’s attorney said that it would “take a miracle” for him to walk again. The police shooting of yet another Black person–the 123rd time a cop has shot and killed a Black person in the United States this year according to the Washington Post’s database–has fomented days of protest and unrest, becoming the latest flashpoint for the Black Lives Matter movement. Occurring just ten weeks before the November 3 election and against the backdrop of the Republican National Convention, the shooting and its aftermath in both protest and backlash has become national news with immense ramifications for politics, racial justice and the direction of the country.
While the Bucks players were on the phone with Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, Data for Progress put a survey into the field to test support for the wildcat strike. This rapid turnaround meant we were unable to include reference to what happened not long after, as the Magic and all NBA players joined in solidarity. Professional athletes in the WNBA, MLB, MLS and NHL also joined the action, largely bringing professional sports to a halt.
Our initial poll–which tested support for the Bucks’ work stoppage and not for subsequent and much broader actions–found that voters support the players’ strike for Black lives and racial justice, even as more people learn about these events through the news and as more players, teams and leagues take action.
In our survey, we tested attitudes about the Bucks’ strike with something called a split, where half the sample is shown one question and the other half is shown another, allowing us to measure changes based upon framing, question wording and, in this case, the details of the story. In this instance, we aimed to test whether the phrase “an unarmed Black man”–which was highlighted in many stories and on social media–impacts public opinion. Half of our sample was asked: “Yesterday, the Milwaukee Bucks decided not to play their NBA playoff game against the Orlando Magic, in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake – an unarmed black man. Do you support or oppose their decision?” The other half was asked the same question but without the phrase “an unarmed Black man.” For both questions, we found statistically equivalent levels of support.
When voters were asked if they support or oppose the strike, with mention that Jacob Blake was an unarmed Black man, voters report they support the action by a 10-percentage-point margin (48 percent support, 38 percent oppose). Attitudes were sharply correlated with partisanship. Voters who self identify as Democrats overwhelmingly back the players, supporting their strike by a 56-point margin (74 percent support, 16 percent oppose). Voters who self-identify as Republican, meanwhile, oppose it by a 40-point margin (25 percent support, 65 percent oppose).
When we asked voters if they support or oppose this strike without mention of Blake’s race or whether or not he was “armed,” levels of support were effectively the same. On net, voters support the strike by a nine-point margin (48 percent support, 39 percent oppose). Attitudes were again divided along party lines. Democrats supported the strike by a 54-point margin (73 percent support, 19 percent oppose). Republicans, meanwhile, opposed the strike by a 40-point margin (29 support, 63 oppose). While including the phrasing “an unarmed Black man” did appear to have a small effect on public opinion, these findings were within the margin of error.
These findings emphasize just how stark partisan divides over Black Lives Matter, racial justice and the protests of Black athletes have become. While a large majority of Democrats and a plurality of voters support the Bucks players’ strike, a majority of Republicans oppose it. NBA players, Black athletes and people of conscience will, undoubtedly, continue to speak out about the gross inhumanities, injustices and indecencies faced by Black people in the United States. “FUCK THIS MAN!!!! WE DEMAND CHANGE.” Los Angeles Lakers superstar Lebron James tweeted an hour into the strike, in a statement that spoke for many. “SICK OF IT”
But, as this poll and so many others make clear, whether righteous outrage and organizing will have any influence on the powers that be depends largely on what happens in November. None of the striking players needed to read this poll or any other to know what some of their most consequential and powerful next steps might be: organize, educate and vote.
Julian Brave NoiseCat (@jnoisecat) is Vice President of Policy & Strategy for Data for Progress.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org.
On August 26, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,239 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points.