Biden Emerges From the First Presidential Debate a Clear Winner
Biden also notched strong performances with Christians and non-college whites
By Ethan Winter, Danielle Deiseroth, and Marcela Mulholland
Last night, roughly 73 million Americans watched as President Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden faced off in the first presidential debate of this election cycle. The debate came after a turbulent series of months marked by mass death, climate chaos, and economic hardship. Both candidates covered a series of issues that highlighted some stark differences in temperament and policy between them. The stakes of this election could not be higher, and this debate could potentially sway undecided voters in key swing states.
Right after the debate’s conclusion, Data for Progress fielded a series of questions to gauge voters’ reactions to it. This survey of 1,544 debate viewers was then weighted to be representative of the universe of national likely voters to account for the Democratic skew of the debate audience. More plainly, viewers of presidential debates are disproportionately left-leaning college graduates. By weighting the results the way we have, we can work to account for this difference between the debate audience and the likely voter population.
We find that Biden emerged as the clear-cut winner among voters. By a 13-percentage-point margin, viewers report that Biden “won” (52 percent Biden, 39 percent Trump). While attitudes were, unsurprisingly, sharply correlated with partisan self-identification, independents broke for Biden by a 12-point margin (47 percent Biden, 35 percent Trump).
We also asked who viewers thought was more presidential. We find that by a 20-point margin, voters think that Biden appeared more presidential than Trump (53 percent Biden, 33 percent Trump). Attitudes are, again, correlated with partisanship, with Independent and third party voters selecting Biden as the more presidential of the pair by a wide margin.
We also asked voters if based on what they saw in the debate whether they think Biden or Trump will do a better job handling a range of topical issues. A majority of voters think Biden will do a better job than Trump handling race relations (54 percent Biden, 34 percent Trump) and the Covid-19 pandemic (51 percent Biden, 39 percent Trump). Likewise, a plurality of voters think Biden will do a better job than Trump handling the integrity of our elections (49 percent Biden, 36 percent Trump) and the Supreme Court (48 percent Biden, 40 percent Trump). However, voters think Trump will do a better job handling the economy than Biden by a narrow three-point margin (46 percent Trump, 43 percent Biden).
A leading driver of support for Biden was how he presented and handled himself during the debate. By a 17-point margin compared to Trump, viewers say Biden’s style and ability to communicate make them more likely to support him in the election. Similarly, by a 12-point margin, voters say that the candidates’ tone and attitudes towards one another made viewers more likely to back Biden. Presentation is an important part of politics: Biden appeared relatively calm and collected,while Trump did not, and these results indicate voters may reward Biden for his debate performance.
On policy substance, viewers also report by a 15-point margin that the candidates’ responses to questions about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic make them more likely to support Biden. Likewise, by a 10-point margin, voters say the candidates’ responses to questions about policing and race make them more likely to support Biden. Even on the economy--which voters trust Trump slightly more to handle than Trump--voters think the candidates’ responses on the topic make them more likely to vote for Biden.
Voters also think the debate’s moderator, Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, was unbiased and did not favor either candidate. A majority of voters (62 percent) say Wallace treated both candidates fairly, including a majority of Democrats (73 percent) and independents (61 percent) and a plurality of Republicans (50 percent). That said, over a quarter of Republicans (29 percent) think Wallace was biased towards Joe Biden.
As part of this poll, we also sought to home in on the attitudes of two key groups: Christians and non-college educated whites. To identify Christians, we used a standard GSS question in which viewers are asked whether they think the Bible is: (1) The Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word, (2) The Bible is the inspired word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word, or (3) The Bible is an ancient book of fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by men. We defined “Christians” as those who selected either the first or second response options. Non-college whites are identified through a simple self-identification.
In 2016, Christian viewers of the debate broke for Trump by a seven-point margin over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s nominee (28 percent Clinton, 35 percent Trump). Looking now at their reactions to the debate, we find that Christian viewers report that Biden beat Trump by a two-point margin (38 percent Biden, 36 percent Trump). When they’re asked who they felt was more presidential, they break for Biden by an eight-point margin (46 percent Biden, 38 percent Trump).
Responses among non-college whites who viewed the debate tell a similar story. In 2016, they went for Trump by a 21-point margin (27 percent Clinton, 48 percent Trump). Non-college whites also felt that Trump won the debate, though the margin here is much narrower, sitting at only four-points (34 percent Biden, 38 percent Trump). Lastly, when asked who was more presidential, non-college whites were evenly divided at 43 percent.
These results that focus on Christians and non-college whites show a clear story. The Trump coalition is shrinking while Biden is growing his.
Our polling shows that overall last night was favorable for Biden. Viewers looked favorably upon Biden’s handling of the coronavirus, race and election integrity. A notable exception is the economy, where most voters and debate watchers view the President more favorably. Stepping back to think about the horserace more generally, whether this debate will “hurt” Trump isn’t quite the right question to ask. The president is in a hole and trailing Biden badly. To win, Trump needs things to help him. His debate performance didn’t do this. Viewers simply think that Biden won.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress.You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org
Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Climate Data Analyst for Data for Progress.
Marcela Mulholland (@x3Marcela_) is Deputy Director for Climate for Data for Progress.