Trump's Approval Rating Dropping Among Independents, Republicans

By Isa Alomran and Ethan Winter

As part of a January national survey of likely voters, Data for Progress finds that a majority of voters support efforts to impeach the president following a deadly insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th. On the 12th of January, House Democrats officially introduced articles of impeachment against the president for his role in inciting the deadly attack, and a vote on impeachment is expected next week. As part of the same survey, we also measured the president's job approval ratings among likely voters. We find that disapproval of the president has grown, with many Republicans and Trump 2020 voters now signaling that they disapprove of the job he’s doing. 

Tracking the Drop in Trump’s Approval

  • Among Democrats: December 30: - 71 → January 9 - 10: - 80

  • Among Independents / Third Party: December 30: - 7 → January 9 - 10:  - 27

  • Among Republicans: December 30: + 74 → January 9 - 10: + 60

  • Among Trump 2020 voters: December 30: + 84 → January 9 - 10: + 62

  • Among Biden 2020 voters: December 30: - 84  → January 9 - 10: - 85

In a survey fielded from the 9th to the 10th of this month, we find that the president’s job approval rating sits at minus 16-points (42 percent approve, 58 percent disapprove). A majority of likely voters who self-identify as Democrats (89 percent) and as Independent / Third Party (63 percent) disapprove of Trump. Meanwhile, among likely voters who self-identify as Republicans, meanwhile, 80 percent approve of the job Trump is doing. We can also observe a close correlation between attitudes among partisans and 2020 voters. Eighty-one percent of self-reported Trump 2020 voters approve of the job he’s doing — just one point different than his approval number among Republicans — and 92 percent of self-reported Biden 2020 voters disapprove — two points different than his disapproval among Democrats.   

 
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What is likely driving this drop in Trump’s approval rating is his handling of the events of January 6th, in which he helped incite a riot which culminated in the storming of the U.S. capitol by his supporters, disrupting the certification of the results of the presidential election and threatening the lives of lawmakers. The president has, subsequently, been banned from most social media and many elected officials, including Republicans, are calling for his impeachment and removal from office. 

To understand this, it is worth looking at where the president’s job approval rating was at the end of 2020. In a survey conducted on December 30, 2020 of likely voters nationally, the president’s approval rating was minus three points. Among Democrats and Biden voters, the president has been consistently unpopular and while his position among Democrats has eroded slightly, his numbers haven’t really moved among Biden 2020 voters. It’s among Independents and Republicans that the president’s positions have really taken a hit. Among Independents, the president’s approval has fallen 20 points with this group. With Trump 2020 voters, the president’s approval eroded 22 points.     

 
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Trump’s decline in popularity is connected to burgeoning support for impeachment. Among all likely voters, we find that 53 percent of likely voters support the impeachment of President Trump (42 percent oppose it). This mirrors a recently published Vox and Data for Progress poll that finds 51 percent of likely voters think that Trump should be impeached. Both findings are directly in line with 538’s average of 13 polls that found that 52 percent of likely voters support impeachment and 42 percent oppose it. 

 
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When we look at responses broken out by partisanship, we see that a majority of voters who self-identify as Democrats (83 percent) and Independent / Third Party (54 percent) both support impeaching Trump. In contrast, 79 percent of self-identified Republicans oppose impeachment.

The findings of this latest Data for Progress survey show that voters recognize the significant role President Trump played in inciting the deadly riot at the Capitol. In addition, congressional Democrats' effort to impeach the president has majority support within the electorate.

Isa Alomran is an intern at Data for Progress. 

Ethan Winter is an analyst at Data for Progress. 

Methodology

From January 9 to January 10, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,129 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points. 

On December 30, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,166 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points. 

Question Wording

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Trump is doing as President?

  • Strongly approve

  • Somewhat approve

  • Somewhat disapprove

  • Strongly disapprove

  • Not sure

Some lawmakers in Congress are calling for President Trump to be impeached for his role in attempting to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election and inciting riots that lead to the storming of the capital building and disruption of vote certifying the electoral college votes. 

Do you support or oppose this effort to impeach Trump?

  • Strongly support

  • Somewhat support

  • Somewhat oppose

  • Strongly oppose

  • Don't know

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