Voters Think it Is Time to End the Filibuster
Democrats have won a trifecta. They should be able to govern.
By Ethan Winter
In a new national poll, Data for Progress finds that a plurality of national voters support ending the filibuster. Overall, 55 percent of likely voters expressed a willingness to change Senate rules to expedite the passage of a large coronavirus relief bill.
As part of an October survey, Data for Progress measured knowledge among likely voters about the United States’ system of government, general opinions towards the legislative process, and support or opposition towards the ending of a filibuster, a Senate rule that places a 60-vote threshold on ending debate and allowing a bill to come up for a final vote.
We find that, in general, likely voters are under the impression that the United States is more small-d democratic than it really is. We also find that voters want Congress to do more and actually are open to the idea of a more activist and energetic state. Likely voters are supportive of changing Senate rules to allow for the quick passage of bills and become even more excited about this prospect when this is connected to a coronavirus relief package.
Voters think the Senate is more small-D democratic than it really is
Our aim was to establish baseline attitudes among likely voters, with a particular focus on how they think the Senate does (or does not) operate.
In general, we find that likely voters think that the United States political system — and the Senate in particular — are more small-d democratic than they really are. When we asked likely voters how many senators are needed to pass a bill, we find that 65 percent think only 51 are. Only 22 percent answered that 60 are, the number currently required to invoke cloture, thereby ending debate and allowing for a full vote to take place. Responses to this question were consistent across party lines.
Similarly, we asked likely voters whether they think it’s likely that if the president, along with a majority of senators and U.S. representatives, supports a policy then it will become a law. We find among all likely voters, 56 percent think this policy would become a law. Our poll did not find significant partisan variation in responses to this question.
Voters actually want the government to work
Our poll then switched tactics to ask questions about values in an effort to understand how likely voters would like to see the government work. In addition, we tested language that politicians often use to talk about the Senate and government more broadly, and whether likely voters want the government to do more or less in general.
Data for Progress finds that, in general, likely voters want Congress to pass more laws, to change existing procedures to fix gridlock, and to move quicker.
First, we asked likely voters whether they want Congress to pass more laws and move fast or whether they think Congress needs to slow down and do less. We find that a majority (62 percent) of likely voters want Congress to do more and move faster. This was the majority position for voters from each partisan affiliation we tested, with 75 percent support from voters that self-identify as Democrats, 56 percent support from Independent / Third Party voters, and 50 percent support from Republicans.
We also find that voters are receptive to Senate rule changes framed around fixing gridlock. Sixty percent of likely voters want to make it easier to fix gridlock in Washington, D.C. This is also the position of 69 percent, 54 percent, and 54 percent of Democrats, Independent / Third Party voters, and Republicans, respectively.
We then asked a split, where half of the sample of likely voters was shown one question while the other half was shown a different question, to compare the effect of different messages.
On one side of the split, we asked likely voters a general question about whether or not they would want Senate procedure modified to make it easier to pass large bills more quickly. We find that a plurality (48 percent) of all likely voters support this. There is some variation depending on partisanship. A majority (62 percent) of Democrats and plurality (44 percent) of Independent / Third Party likely voters want Senate rules changed to make it easier to pass large bills more quickly. Republicans, however, are more split: 43 percent want the rules left as-is while 33 percent want the rules modified.
The other half of the split was shown a message that connected changing Senate rules to passing a coronavirus relief bill both large enough to meet the country’s needs and that could be implemented quickly. We find that when voters are asked in this way, support for changing Senate rules increases by seven percentage points, becoming the majority position among likely voters at 55 percent. We see a similar effect among Democrats, Independent / Third Party voters, and Republicans, with all three groups moving towards preferring Senate rules be changed by 11 points, four points, and 11 points, respectively. Among Republicans, support for changing Senate rules becomes the plurality position at 42 percent.
Voters are prepared to end the filibuster
We then asked voters specifically about the filibuster, again employing a split. While likely voters are open to ending the filibuster, they become much more supportive of the idea when it’s connected to passing a large coronavirus-relief bill through the Senate as fast as possible.
When likely voters were simply asked about ending the filibuster, Data for Progress finds a plurality of likely voters support ending this measure, with 45 percent in support of ending the filibuster and 40 percent wanting to keep the rule. A majority of Democrats (52 percent) and a plurality of Independent / Third Party voters (41 percent) support replacing the filibuster with a simple majority vote, while Republicans want to keep the filibuster put in place by a five-point margin.
When coronavirus relief is tethered to the filibuster, however, support for ending it rises by five-points, becoming the position of 50 percent of all likely voters. The sharpest increase is for Democratic voters, whose support for ending the filibuster rises by 12 points to 64 percent. Under this frame, support for ending the filibuster among Independent / Third Party voters ticks down slightly but remains the plurality position: 35 percent want to end the filibuster and 32 percent want the rule left in place. Republicans are six points more supportive of ending the filibuster, with ending the rule becoming the plurality position at 46 percent.
The future of the filibuster
With a tight 50-50 majority in the Senate and a narrow House majority, hesitating to end the Senate filibuster will only further tie the hands of Democrats in their ability to pass popular progressive policies and reforms. Our polling makes it clear that voters across partisan lines favor scrapping the filibuster in order to pass an ambitious coronavirus relief bill. Eliminating the filibuster would allow Democrats to pass popular legislation that will provide tangible benefits for voters and help them win future elections.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org.
From October 28 to October 29, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1253 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.