Survey of Young Peoples’ Political Attitudes in Pennsylvania
By Lew Blank, David Guirgis, Anika Dandekar, and Brian Burton
Pennsylvania is poised to be a crucial swing state in the 2022 midterm elections, where there is an open governor’s seat and incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey has announced his intention to retire at the end of his term. Young voters will play a major role in determining which party is victorious in these critical races. New Data for Progress polling of Pennsylvania residents aged 18 to 36, conducted in partnership with NextGen America, gauges the favorability and levels of support for the Democratic and Republican parties and current officeholders. Data for Progress also tested young Pennsylvanians’ general enthusiasm to vote and the issues that matter the most to them.
Young Pennsylvanians Support Gov. Wolf and Sen. Casey, Disapprove of Sen. Toomey
First, we found that Democratic Governor Tom Wolf has positive net favorability among residents aged 18 to 36, with an overall +11-point margin of support. His favorability is stronger among registered residents (+21 points) and weaker among unregistered residents (-11 points). Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is also popular with Pennsylvania residents, with a +10-point margin of approval which extends across registered (+12) and unregistered (+5) residents. However, the same does not hold true for Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. Among young residents, Toomey is disapproved by a -5-point margin, with a -8-point margin of favorability among registered young residents and a +2-point margin among unregistered young residents.
We also examined favorability for these officeholders across age groups. Residents aged 18-24 approve of Casey (+6) and disapprove of Wolf (-3) and Toomey (-12). Those aged 25-36 show notably stronger preference for their Democratic officeholders, favoring Casey (+14) and Wolf (+23) while disapproving of Toomey (-1).
Young Pennsylvanians Find Democrats Favorable and Republicans Unfavorable
In addition, we found that Democrats hold a significant advantage over the Republican Party in terms of overall favorability with young residents. At present, Democrats hold a +11-point margin of support across voter registration; registered young residents support Democrats by +16 points, while unregistered young residents’ support for Democrats is even (+0). Meanwhile, Republicans are -37 points underwater among registered young residents and -14 points underwater among unregistered young residents.
Notably, this trend carries over across age groups. We find that Democrats have a +2 margin of support among people aged 18-24. Republicans, on the other hand, have -12 points of net favorability within that group. This trend is consistent with residents aged 25-36, who overwhelmingly prefer the Democratic Party (+19-point margin) to the Republican Party (-45-point margin). This makes clear that overall, across Gen-Z and Millennial residents in Pennsylvania, Democrats hold a significant advantage in favorability.
Young Pennsylvanians Are Very Enthusiastic to Vote in 2022
We found that younger residents are as enthusiastic as usual or more enthusiastic than usual to vote in 2022. Seventeen percent of residents aged 18-24 indicate that they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, with an additional 42 percent saying they were as enthusiastic. Among residents aged 25 to 36, 34 percent say they are more excited to vote in 2022, with an additional 37 percent saying they were as excited. Seventy-four percent of registered young residents are as enthusiastic or more enthusiastic about voting next year, compared with 43 percent of unregistered young residents.
Young Pennsylvanians Believe Economic Issues Are Most Important
We also asked young Pennsylvanians for their top priority leading into the midterm elections. We found that pluralities of young residents believe increasing the minimum wage to $15 (21 percent) and strengthening the economy (21 percent) are the most important issues facing them right now. An additional 15 percent say that addressing climate change and building a clean energy economy is their top priority, followed by canceling student debt (14 percent).
We then asked young people to list the top five issues that they are facing in Pennsylvania and found that strengthening the economy most frequently appear on their list of concerns (59 percent). Beyond this, they most often cite the following progressive issues:
Increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour (48 percent)
Canceling student debt (48 percent)
Reforming the criminal justice system (42 percent)
Addressing climate change and transitioning to clean energy (41 percent)
From these results, we can see a clear and consistent suite of issues that matter to younger residents in Pennsylvania, both registered and unregistered. They want an economy that works for them, a livable wage, to be student debt-free, and to address the threats of climate change by transitioning to clean energy.
Taken together, Data for Progress findings suggest that Pennsylvania Democrats hold a notable advantage in favorability and support among young residents, including those who are unregistered to vote. This holds true for both the party’s favorability overall and for residents’ preferences for Gov. Wolf and Sen. Casey Jr. over Sen. Toomey. Crucially, the candidates at the top of the ticket should support the policies young people believe are most important, in order to further fuel voter enthusiasm.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a senior writer at Data for Progress.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.
Anika Dandekar is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From October 23 to November 3, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 361 registered and unregistered voters in Pennsylvania between the ages of 18 and 36 using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of the voting age population using age, gender, education, race and registration status. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.