Voters Are Swayed by Messaging on Democrats' Pandemic Recovery Efforts
By: Brian Burton, Evangel Penumaka, Kirby Phares, and Lew Blank
Introduction
As part of a national survey fielded from late October to early November 2021, Data for Progress and Way to Win sought to examine 1) which issues are on voters’ minds, 2) which of the policies passed this year by President Biden’s administration are supported by voters, and 3) how to frame salient issues on the pandemic and economic recovery against Republican attacks.
Key findings:
Voters view the economy, pandemic recovery, job shortages and unemployment, healthcare accessibility, and care for the elderly as extremely important issues in the U.S. today.
Policies passed through the American Rescue Plan, from stimulus checks to relief for small businesses, continue to be overwhelmingly popular among voters.
Framing the pandemic around the challenges faced by Americans and the ways Democrats have worked to take action for our recovery resonates the most with voters against Republican messaging on protecting against government interference.
Issue Importance and Support for Pandemic-Related Legislation
We first asked voters to select how important or unimportant they viewed a range of issues facing the U.S. today, from the economy and climate change to income inequality and voting rights expansions. We find that protecting the economy is at the top of voters’ minds: 95 percent of voters view this issue as important today (70 percent very important, 25 percent somewhat important). Voters also view the coronavirus pandemic recovery as highly important by a +76-point margin, with 64 percent of voters viewing the issue as “very important.” We also find several other issues that voters view as important today: job shortages and unemployment, making healthcare more accessible, and increasing access to care for the elderly — all viewed as important by a +82-point margin.
When looking across subgroups, we find that the importance of recovery from the pandemic consistently remains high, from partisanship (+93 points among Democrats, +71 points among Independents, and +64 points among Republicans) to voters of color (+92 points among Asians, +84 points among Black voters, and +80 points among Latinos).
The importance of the pandemic among voters is also reflected in the second set of questions we polled. We presented voters with a range of policies passed by the Biden administration, from the Covid-19 Hate Crimes Act and rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, to various pandemic-related provisions passed through the American Rescue Plan. We find that voters overwhelmingly support pandemic-specific legislation: voters support pandemic relief for small businesses by a +78-point margin, the $1400 stimulus checks by a +55-point margin, pandemic relief for minority-owned businesses by a +49-point margin, pandemic unemployment benefits by a +41-point margin, and pandemic paid sick leave and family leave by a +47-point margin. We also find that voters support the expansion of the Child Tax Credit by a +37-point margin. In addition to the job and economic losses experienced during the pandemic, the rise in hate crimes towards Asian Americans also gained national attention. We find that voters support legislation passed to make it easier to report hate crimes by a +59-point margin. Lastly, while the policies not related to the pandemic — on rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement and directing federal agencies to promote competition among industries — receive slightly lower levels of support, we find that the majority of voters support both policies by a +31-point margin and a +37-point margin, respectively.
Looking at the most supported policy among voters, we find that support for pandemic relief is enthusiastically supported by voters across demographics. The policy holds bipartisan support, including a +83 margin of Democrats, a +74 margin of Republicans, and a +72 margin of Independents. Asian, Black, and Latino/a voters equally support the policy at 87 percent. We also find consistent support among different voter segments, from first-time voters in 2020 in support by a +75-point margin, voters who voted in both 2020 and 2018 by a +77-point margin, and 2020 non-voters by a +75-point margin.
We find similar patterns when looking at support for stimulus checks. While Democrats and Independents overwhelmingly support the stimulus checks at 88 percent and 73 percent, respectively, we also find that Republican voters are in support of this policy by a +28-point margin (62 percent support, 34 percent oppose). Additionally, voters of color, first-time voters, 2020 and 2018 voters, and 2020 non-voters support the pandemic $1400 payments by +49 points or higher.
Lastly, we examined voter attitudes more broadly on changes since President Biden was elected. We find by a +14-point margin, a majority of voters believe there has not been enough change since Biden took office. This includes a majority of Democrats by +59 points and a plurality of Independents by +13 points. Across race and ethnicity, a majority of Asian, Black, and Latino/a voters agree there hasn’t been enough change by +42 points, +55 points, and +29 points, respectively, in contrast to a plurality of white voters who also want to see more change. When looking at voter segments, we find that first-time voters show the strongest belief that there hasn’t been enough change by a +39-point margin (67 percent not enough change, 28 percent too much change). This is in contrast to a simple majority of voters who voted in both 2020 and 2018, and just half of 2020 non-voters who agree there hasn’t been enough change.
Messaging Results
Later in our survey, we tested multiple different messages relating to the coronavirus pandemic, our economic recovery, and women’s rights. The results can help guide Democrats on how to effectively frame these issues against Republican attacks.
Coronavirus Pandemic Recovery
We first examined voters’ views in regards to recovery efforts to fight against the coronavirus pandemic, such as vaccinations, vaccine mandates, and getting people back to work. Voters saw one of three Democratic messages against a generic message on Republicans protecting the freedom of voice against government interference:
Democratic Achievements: “Democrats are once again taking action to help people get jobs, getting our country back on its feet, while Republicans have only hurt our efforts to end the pandemic, opposing masks and life-saving vaccines. Democrats are getting Americans vaccinated and getting people back to school and work safely, so that we can recover and rebuild as quickly as possible.”
Saving Lives: “Democrats are taking the action needed to save and protect lives, while Republicans are making the pandemic worse. Right now, our hospitals are severely understaffed as doctors and nurses struggle to fight coronavirus, and people suffering from other illnesses like cancer can’t receive the care they need because rooms are overcrowded with people dying of the virus.”
Republican Anti-Science Beliefs: “Republicans have undermined all efforts to fight against the coronavirus. Their anti-science beliefs, disregard for common-sense safety measures, and anti-vaccination messages are costing thousands of lives and preventing us from being able to recover from the new virus variants as quickly as possible.”
While views between Democrats and Republicans are highly polarized across all three splits, we find that focusing on Democratic achievements to recover from the pandemic is an effective strategy to counter Republican attacks on government interference. Voters agree with the Democratic side in message A by a +8-point margin, and message B by a +10-point margin. These two messages are also effective among voter segments compared to message C. Non-voters in 2020, for example, agree with the Democratic side on the achievements Democrats have had on recovery efforts by a +22-point margin and message B on Democrats saving lives by a +7-point margin. In contrast, non-voters who saw message C on Republican anti-science beliefs remain split between agreeing with Democratic or Republican messaging.
Voters of color also largely align with Democrats on this issue. Black voters, for example, align with Democrats in message A by a +65-point margin, message B by a +54-point margin, and message C by a +43-point margin.
Before and after seeing messaging on recovery efforts, respondents were asked to assess their approval of how the coronavirus pandemic has been handled by Democratic and Republican lawmakers. Prior to seeing one of the three messages, voters were largely split on approving of Democratic job performance on the pandemic (46 percent approved, 47 percent disapproved). After messaging, we find voters shift in approving of Democrats by a +5-point margin. This includes a +5-point increase in approval among Democratic voters, from pre- to post-levels, and a +4-point increase in approval among Independent voters.
In contrast to Democratic coronavirus pandemic performance, the majority of voters disapproved of Republican lawmakers’ handling of the pandemic by a -14-point margin. After messaging, disapproval remains relatively steady at a -11-point margin. While disapproval remains consistent among Democrats and Independents pre- and post-messaging, we find that Republicans increase in their approval of Republican lawmakers’ job performance on the pandemic from a +46-point margin to a +58-point margin.
Pandemic Recovery and the Economy
We next tested views towards the more economically focused policies passed during the pandemic to support families and workers, such as stimulus checks and emergency relief for small businesses. Voters saw a generic Republican message framed around the government’s overreach of power and overspending before seeing one of the two following Democratic messages:
The government improved gaps today: “While the wealthy made more money during the pandemic, most Americans struggled with job losses, closed businesses, and health care costs. The government provided pandemic relief so we could start rebuilding as a stronger country.”
The government should build a stronger nation for the future: “The government’s pandemic relief has helped create millions of jobs in the last five months, while providing critical support to the most vulnerable, including children. We can create a government that works for Americans and build a stronger, more resilient nation of tomorrow.”
We find that focusing on examples of how Americans struggled during the pandemic counters messaging on government overreach, in contrast to achievements framed in broader terms — such as job creation and support for the most vulnerable — and its impacts on the future. Voters align with message A on government support for job losses, closed businesses, and health care costs by a +14-point margin, compared to message B where voters align with the Republican viewpoint by a -2-point margin. Message A is particularly effective among Independents by a +17-point margin, compared to message B where Independents agree with Republicans by a -5-point margin. We also find message A is more effective across voter segments. Non-voters in 2020 and 2018-2020 voters align with Democrats in message A compared to B by a difference of +8-points, and +5-points, respectively.
Support among Black voters stays consistent in favor of Democratic messaging across both splits. In contrast, we find that message A also does considerably better among Latino/a voters by a +31-point margin, compared to message B where Latinos align with Democratic messaging over the government overreach message by a +7-point margin.
Women’s Rights
We lastly examined the effectiveness of two types of framing on abortion and women’s rights. Voters were given a description of the types of laws passed by state Republican lawmakers restricting abortions, and read a generic message framed on Republicans doing what is best to defend the rights of unborn children, alongside one of the two following Democratic messages:
Republican overreach: “Republicans are showing they have no respect for the rights of women. These over-reaches of power are undoing all the rights that women have gained over their bodies and do nothing but harm women and their families.”
Realities faced by women: “These laws ignore the realities that any woman could face, like not being able to support the children they already have, or being too sick to go through a pregnancy. Everyone should have the freedom to choose if and when they start a family.”
Message B on a woman’s freedom to choose, given the different realities they could face, strongly resonates with a majority of voters by a +17-point margin, compared to a plurality of voters who agree with the Democratic side on Republicans overreaching their power by a smaller +9-point margin.
We find a similar pattern across race. While a majority of Black voters agree with message A on overreaches of power by +33-points compared to the Republican viewpoint, this increases to +57-points among Black voters who were shown message B. Similarly, white voters are split between the Democratic and Republican viewpoint when given message A and agree with Democrats when seeing message B by a +10-point margin. Among Latinos, we find contrasting results. A simple majority of Latinos agree with message B by +17-points. Emphasizing that Republicans are undoing the rights of women increases Latinos’ agreement with the Democratic viewpoint by a notable margin: we find a +32-point increase among Latinos who were presented with message A.
Conclusion
With pandemic restrictions still in place and as the costs of necessities such as food and gas increase, the economy and the U.S.’ pandemic recovery are at the top of voters’ minds. And while the majority of voters disapprove of how Republican lawmakers have handled the pandemic, prior to seeing messaging, voters are also split in their views in assessing Democrats’ performances. Our findings provide some guidance on how Democrats can strategize as we head into the 2022 midterms. Through our message testing, we find that an effective strategy to align voters with Democratic viewpoints is reminding voters not only of the challenges Americans have faced from the start of the pandemic, but that it is Democrats who have fought to save lives during the pandemic, get people back on their feet, and start recovering as quickly as possible — all in the face of Republican inaction. Democrats should take as much credit as possible for fighting to get stimulus checks to most Americans, relief to small business owners, and support for families through the Child Tax Credit expansions — all legislation that is overwhelmingly popular among voters. Our findings on the restrictive abortions laws passed by Republicans also suggest similar strategies can be effective in other issue areas, by framing the issue as one where Democrats are defending voters against Republican refusals to accept the real-life challenges and realities faced by Americans.