Likely Voters Support the American Jobs Plan
The AJP is preferred to the GOP counterproposal in a head-to-head
By Ethan Winter, Evangel Penmaka, and Morgan Sperry
As part of an April, 2021 survey of likely voters nationally, Invest in America and Data for Progress tested support for the American Jobs Plan (AJP) using two different pay-for schemes: 1) raising the corporate tax rate and 2) a small corporate tax increase combined with deficit financing. In addition, we tested the American Jobs Plan in a head-to-head against the current Senate Republican counterproposal. Last, we looked at attitudes towards two alternate funding schemes — the gas tax and levying user fees like higher tolls and a mile-per-traveled tax — to finance new infrastructure spending.
Regardless of how it is paid for, the AJP is popular with likely voters. Paying for it exclusively through a corporate tax hike is supported by a 45-percentage-point margin. Meanwhile, paying for the plan by a mix of hiking the corporate tax rate and adding to the national debt is backed by a margin of 42-points. Likely voters that self-identify as Democrats and Republicans narrowly prefer the blended financing approach. Likely voters that self-identify as independents slightly prefer paying for the AJP solely through hiking the corporate tax rate. This suggests that both of these AJP financing paths offer substantial bipartisan support from likely voters.
Next, we tested the AJP in a head-to-head against a proposal similar to the GOP counteroffer that has been floated, specifically, a package roughly $600 - $800 billion in size with a narrower focus on physical infrastructure, and funded through reallocating unspent money from pandemic relief bills and user fees — such as a miles-per traveled tax, functionally a hike to the gas tax. Likely voters were told the AJP would be funded exclusively by increasing taxes on large corporations.
We find that, by a margin of 26-points, likely voters prefer the AJP to the GOP plan. Democrats and independents prefer the AJP by margins of 52-points and 33 points, respectively. Republicans, meanwhile, are split: thirty-seven percent prefer the AJP and 43 percent prefer the GOP counter offer — while 20 percent remain undecided.
We also polled two funding sources that some lawmakers have proposed be used to pay for new infrastructure spending. First is the gas tax. We find that likely voters oppose raising the gas tax to pay for new infrastructure spending by 24-point margin. Opposition to the use of this tax extends across partisan lines: Democrats, independents, and Republicans oppose it by margins of two-points, 39-points, and 41-points, respectively.
We then asked about the user fees like tolls and a miles-per-traveled tax for cars. This yielded a similar result to the gas tax question. Overall, by 20 points, likely voters oppose the use of user fees to fund investment infrastructures. This support, again, extends across partisan lines: Democrats oppose it by a two-point margin, independents by a 28-point margin, and Republicans by a 30-point margin.
Regardless of how the AJP is funded, the plan is popular. Likely voters are supportive of both the use of a corporate tax hike, exclusively, as well as a blended approach that combines a smaller corporate tax rate increase with some deficit financing. Moreover, A robust majority prefers the AJP to a plan that resembles the GOP counterproposal. Last, the use of the gas tax and user fees to pay for new infrastructure spending is unpopular. Democratic lawmakers should understand that these payfors are potential poison pill provisions that could seriously undercut support for AJP. Corporate tax hikes and deficit financing are popular funding mechanisms and, from a polling standpoint, there is no reason to diverge from this course of action.
Toplines can be found here.
Methodology
From April 23 to 25, 2021, Data for Progress and Invest in America conducted a survey of 1,189 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
Authorship
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org
Evangel Penumaka (@evangelpenumaka) is an analyst at Data for Progress.
Morgan Sperry (@MorganRSperry) is an analyst at Data for Progress.
Question Wording
The American Jobs Plan is a proposal to spend $2.25 trillion on infrastructure investments over eight years. The plan includes funding for the following:
Lowering the cost of and improving the quality of healthcare for seniors and people with disabilities
Repairing roads, bridges, and schools
Repairing drinking water systems
Investing in American manufacturing
Expanding and improving internet service
Modernizing America's electrical grid
Creating millions of good-paying jobs in a modern American energy sector
Funding the cleanup of mines and abandoned gas wells
This proposal would be paid for by raising taxes on large corporations.
Do you support or oppose the American Jobs Plan?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
The American Jobs Plan is a proposal to spend $2.25 trillion on infrastructure investments over eight years. The plan includes funding for the following:
Lowering the cost of and improving the quality of healthcare for seniors and people with disabilities
Repairing roads, bridges, and schools
Repairing drinking water systems
Investing in American manufacturing
Expanding and improving internet service
Modernizing America's electrical grid
Creating millions of good-paying jobs in a modern American energy sector
Funding the cleanup of mines and abandoned gas wells
This proposal would be paid for by a mix of adding to the national debt and raising taxes on large corporations.
Do you support or oppose the American Jobs Plan?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Lawmakers in Congress are currently proposing two infrastructure plans.
The first is a $2.25 trillion plan that includes funding to lower the cost of and improve the quality of healthcare for seniors and people with disabilities, upgrade hospitals that treat veterans, repair roads, bridges, drinking water systems and the electric grid, expand broadband internet services, as well as invest in zero-pollution energy and technology. This plan would be paid for through raising taxes on large corporations.
The second plan costs between $600 - $800 billion and focuses only on transportation infrastructure like roads and bridges, upgrading water infrastructure, and expanding broadband services. This plan would be paid for through a mix of raising the gas tax, user fees like tolls, and reallocating money from pandemic relief bills.
Which plan would you prefer?
The $2.25 trillion plan paid for by raising taxes on large corporations
The $600 - $800 billion plan paid for through a mix of raising the gas tax, user fees, and reallocating pandemic relief money
Don’t know
To fund an investment in America's infrastructure, would you support or oppose raising the gas tax?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
To fund an investment in America's infrastructure, would you support or oppose using a mix of user fees such as tolls and a miles-per-traveled tax for cars?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know