Poll: Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema Set to Be Unseated by Possible Challenger Ruben Gallego in 2024 Primary Landslide
By Ryan O’Donnell, David Guirgis, and Brian Burton
In October 2021, Data for Progress published poll findings that captured the extent of Arizona Democratic primary voters’ dissatisfaction with Senator Kyrsten Sinema: She had the highest unfavorability rating of any elected Democrat tested in the state, and she was poised to lose her 2024 primary by a wide margin.
Since then, speculation has mounted that progressive Representative Ruben Gallego, a Harvard-educated Iraq War veteran, is seriously considering a bid. Meanwhile, Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party this week for her defense of the filibuster, which came at the expense of passing popular voting rights legislation.
Data for Progress’ initial polling found Gallego to be in the best position to beat Sinema in 2024. New Data for Progress polling finds that, since October, Sinema’s favorability has dipped even further — and that Gallego’s potential to secure a primary victory has increased.
Kyrsten Sinema Is Even More Unpopular With Democratic Primary Voters Across Arizona
Around 80 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona hold favorable views of President Biden and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. Among self-identified Democrats, both officials hold nearly 90 percent favorability, while among self-identified moderates, both officials hold 72 percent support. In contrast, Sinema holds -57 points net favorability overall.
Similar to our first round of polling, Sinema is underwater with every demographic polled. Only 19 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, including 16 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of moderates, hold favorable views of her. In October, she held -44 points net favorability among women and -43 points net favorability among Latino/a voters. Now, she holds -58 points net favorability with women, while among Latino/a voters, she holds -50 points of net favorability. This represents a plunge of 14 points and 7 points, respectively, from our initial round of polling.
In terms of job approval, the same trend holds. While 80 percent of likely primary voters approve of President Biden’s performance and 83 percent approve of Sen. Kelly’s performance, 76 percent of voters disapprove of the job Sen. Sinema is doing — including 70 percent of Independents, 76 percent of women, 71 percent of Latino/a voters, and 64 percent of self-identified moderates. Voters’ disapproval of Sinema has risen six points.
Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego Maintains High Favorability Across All Demographics
In contrast, a +49-point margin of voters hold favorable views of Rep. Ruben Gallego, while Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, whom we also polled as a possible contender in our last poll, holds +19 points net approval. This represents a 7-point boost for Gallego from our October 2021 poll. A third of voters haven’t heard enough about Gallego to make a decision, while almost two-thirds of voters haven’t heard enough about Romero. It should be noted that Gallego’s 7-point increase in support comes with a 7-point decrease in the “unknown” margin from the last time we polled him, indicating that he has already made progress toward boosting his name recognition and favorability.
Among women, Gallego holds +47 points net favorability, while among Latino/a voters, he carries +53 points. Among self-described moderates, Gallego — who is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus — holds +37 points net favorability. In fact, across all demographics, he holds at least +22 points net favorability, and even this number is a bit of an outlier; it comes from voters under age 45, of whom almost half haven’t heard enough about Gallego to make a decision.
Rep. Gallego Would Beat Sen. Sinema in a Head-to-Head Matchup
In a head-to-head matchup, we find Gallego is poised to beat Sinema 74-16 — a 12-point increase in Gallego’s share of support from October. Romero – despite her lack of statewide name recognition – also enjoys an 11-point increase from October in a head-to-head matchup. Sinema’s numbers have dropped against both.
It is clear that these trends are a direct result of Sinema’s continued obstructionism within the Senate. A +47-point margin of voters state they would be more likely to vote for Sinema if she voted to allow a simple majority in the Senate to pass voting rights legislation – but that ship has sailed. In addition, 79 percent of likely Democratic primary voters state that, were Sinema to continue preserving the filibuster, they would vote for a candidate in 2024 who would vote to remove it. That same percentage also states that it is more important that their senator support structural reforms to enact the president’s agenda than hold out for bipartisan support.
Takeaways
Just three months ago, Data for Progress warned that Sen. Sinema’s obstruction of the Biden agenda had led to alienation among Arizona primary voters. In the wake of her recent vote to preserve the filibuster and kill voting rights legislation — and after months of her repeated obstruction of the president’s Build Back Better agenda — it’s clear that Sinema’s continued obstruction has only served to lower her support. And it may well be to the benefit of Rep. Gallego, who has been courting calls to run for Senate for months, that Arizona Democratic primary voters are so prepared to unseat her.
Methodology
From January 21 to 24, 2022, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 673 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona using SMS and web panel respondents. Because Arizona allows voters unaffiliated with either party to vote in the primary of their choice, the sample includes self-identified Independents as well as Democrats. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.