Representative Lucy McBath Leads by 9 Points in the Democratic Primary in Georgia’s New 7th Congressional District

By Ryan O’Donnell, Electoral Director, and Kirby Phares, Analyst

A new survey from Data for Progress paid for by Protect Our Future finds that among likely Democratic primary voters in Georgia’s new 7th Congressional District, Representative Lucy McBath currently leads Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux by a +9-percentage-point margin. Donna McLeod, a Georgia state representative, sits at 6 percent. Twenty-two percent of likely Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Bourdeaux has historically been the representative of the bulk of the voters in this new district, or about 53 percent of its voters. McBath, in contrast, has represented only around 12 to 15 percent of the voters in the new 6th congressional district. That McBath holds the lead that she does in light of the distribution of voters, she is now in a fairly commanding position early in the primary.  

A plurality of both men (36 percent) and women (43 percent) back McBath. There is some polarization in vote preference by race. Forty-seven percent of Black voters prefer McBath while 48 percent of white voters prefer Bourdeaux. McBath has a +14-point advantage with Democratic primary voters who self-identify as liberal, while McBath has a +5-point edge with self-identifying moderates.

Both McBath and Bourdeaux are viewed favorably by Democratic primary voters in the district. On net, McBath has a +54-point favorable rating and Bourdeaux has a +51-point favorable rating. Currently, 31 percent of those likely voters say they haven’t heard enough to rate Bourdeaux, and 36 percent haven’t heard enough to rate McBath. That McBath is less well known but still leads Bourdeaux speaks to how McBath may be better positioned at this stage in the primary. McLeod is largely unknown, with 78 percent of likely Democratic primary voters saying they haven’t heard enough to rate her.

Likely Democratic primary voters in Georgia’s 7th congressional district generally have favorable views of all Democrats surveyed. Senators Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff have favorable ratings of +89 points and +85 points, respectively. President Biden has a +74-point favorable rating, while the Democratic Party has a +73-point rating. Meanwhile, Stacey Abrams, who ran for governor in 2018 and is running again in 2022, has a +86-point favorable rating.  

Democrats are popular with likely Democratic primary voters in the new district. Building off this, Democratic primary voters also want a representative who shares similar values with the president. This is the majority position of both men and women, Black and white voters, and liberals and moderates. In addition, Democratic primary voters are generally more open to a candidate who is more liberal than Biden, rather than more conservative than Biden. The sole exception to this is self-identifying moderates, who are split almost evenly, with 10 percent saying they’d rather have a more liberal representative and 12 percent saying they’d prefer a more conservative representative.

A plurality (33 percent) of likely Democratic primary voters in the new district see the coronavirus pandemic as the most important issue facing the country. An agenda that responds to the pandemic and the threat of pandemics more generally will likely be crucial for a successful candidate. While the pandemic is rated as the most important issue by all groups, it is of especial importance to Black voters (41 percent) and men (39 percent). Civil rights are also identified as a top issue and are of particular importance to Black voters (29 percent).

Toplines for this polling can be found here.