Build Back Better Can Build Back Biden's Job Approval
By Bill Scher
Joe Biden’s job approval – according to both the Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight averages – has been in steady decline since late May, with a sharp downward acceleration in early August seemingly sparked by the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal. Biden sank underwater – with job disapproval greater than approval – in late August. Even after Afghanistan faded from the headlines, Biden continued to be buffeted by one negative development after another: September’s Haitian migrant border crisis, two failed attempts to pass the infrastructure bill, rising inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and, of course, a relentless pandemic.
However, when you look at the job-approval charts from the last half of the year, you can see a brief window in which Biden’s average began to recover, between mid-November and mid-December.
In the Real Clear Politics average, from November 18 to December 18, Biden’s average approval rose 3.1 percentage points, from 41.3 percent to 44.4 percent. During the same period in the FiveThirtyEight average, the rise was a milder but still perceptible 1.4 points, from 42.5 percent to 43.9 percent. But in the final two weeks of the year, the recovery fizzled: Biden slipped 1.3 points in RCP, and 0.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s.
What happened near those two dates? On November 19, the House passed the Build Back Better bill. The vote was the culmination of an agreement between House moderate and progressive factions which allowed the bipartisan infrastructure bill to be signed by Biden four days prior. The president, poised to enact the centerpiece of his legislative agenda, once again appeared in command of Washington. And his numbers ticked up.
Then on December 19, Joe Manchin announced he would not give Build Back Better the 50th vote necessary for passage in the Senate. The perception of command dissipated, and the president’s numbers reversed course.
Granted, something else happened in mid-December: The omicron variant ran rampant and the number of coronavirus cases in America exploded. We can’t separate the impacts from the Manchin factor and the omicron factor when assessing the reasons behind the late-December reversal in Biden’s momentum. But both factors work in concert, feeding the perception of an ineffective, impotent president.
We can’t know what Biden’s numbers would have looked like at the end of 2021 if only one of those two factors was present. But we do know that through most of September and October, Covid-19 cases were on the decline, yet Biden’s numbers did not improve. Not until November, when Biden notched big House votes, did perceptions begin to reset.
Of course Biden would like to wave a magic wand, eradicate the coronavirus pandemic, and quash inflation overnight. That would probably help his numbers more than Build Back Better could. The pandemic and rising prices are acutely felt today, whereas the benefits of Build Back Better would largely take time to be enjoyed. But Biden is not a magician.
At best, he’s a tactician. He more readily has the capacity to negotiate a revamped version of Build Back Better that would win over Manchin and retain the support of the rest of the Democratic caucus. Such a deal has more potential to quickly juice Biden’s poll numbers than anything else on the horizon within his control.
While Build Back Better has the potential to be a political game-changer, there is a wild-card element: what a final deal looks like. Manchin gave Biden an offer in December which included 10 years of universal preschool funding, more than $500 billion in spending to combat climate change, and a continuation of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies first enacted in the American Rescue Plan — but that offer would not extend the expansion of the child tax credit, which has provided immediate relief to tens of millions of voters. That may not be exactly what a final deal looks like. But presumably, earning Manchin’s support will require cutting back or removing parts of the current bill.
We know that the individual elements of Build Back Better have consistently polled well. But we don’t know if leaving out any parts of the proposal would deflate support for the overall bill.
Pulling out the wrong Jenga piece from the multifaceted bill is a risk. “Normie” voters, who don’t obsessively follow the daily machinations of Congress, may care less about a bill that doesn’t restart the monthly child tax credit checks to which they’ve grown accustomed. Progressive activists may openly grouse about any further cutbacks to their prized goals, robbing Biden of a clean victory lap in the media and dampening any poll bounce. A narrower bill presents risk, yet it would be a risk worth taking. Without passage of some form of Build Back Better, a fast turnaround in Biden’s numbers is hard to envision.
And a turnaround is critical to avoid a midterm election wipeout. According to a model by political scientist Seth Masket based on past midterm performance, Democrats may need Biden’s job approval over 60 percent — as well as fantastic growth in real per capita disposable income — in order to lose no more than four House seats and retain control of the lower chamber come November. While hitting those marks looks unrealistic, Masket also notes that if the pandemic is better contained by November, that’s a novel factor which could further boost Democratic prospects.
Building back Biden’s job-approval rating should appeal not just to average Democrats, but to the party’s most conservative Democrat: Joe Manchin. Sure, opposing the Democratic leadership helps Manchin impress his home-state, Trump-friendly electorate. But the West Virginian currently possesses the most power to shape legislation he has ever held. The minute Democrats lose control of Congress and Republicans dictate the legislative agenda, Manchin’s power vanishes.
In other words, progressive Democrats and Manchin both have incentive to reach a final compromise, however strained their relationship has been.
Bill Scher (@billscher) is a political writer for the Washington Monthly, a contributing editor for Politico Magazine and a contributor for Real Clear Politics.