Survey of Young Peoples’ Political Attitudes in New Hampshire
By Anika Dandekar, David Guirgis, Lew Blank, Brian Burton, and Devi Ruia
In 2016, then-Governor Maggie Hassan won election to the Senate by 1,017 votes — one of the narrowest margins in recent memory. New Hampshire continues to be a critical battleground state, as voters regularly split the ticket; incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu is a Republican seeking re-election, but both of New Hampshire’s senators are Democrats who have also served as governor.
New Data for Progress polling of young New Hampshire residents aged 18-36, conducted in partnership with NextGen America, measures the levels of support for incumbent officeholders, the Democratic and Republican parties, voter enthusiasm in advance of the 2022 midterms, and the top issues young residents face.
Young New Hampshire Residents Are Enthusiastic About Voting in 2022
In our survey, we find that a strong number of young New Hampshire residents are as enthusiastic or more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, an off-cycle year, compared to 2020 — 67 percent overall. However, looking exclusively at residents who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, Republicans hold a 23-point advantage over Democrats. Registered residents, as well as residents aged 25-36, outpace their unregistered or younger counterparts in voter enthusiasm.
Young NH Residents Largely Approve of Their Statewide Representatives, but Republicans Hold Advantage
Overall, young New Hampshire residents approve of their statewide elected officials — but the Republican governor holds a double-digit lead over both Democratic senators. Gov. Sununu holds +19 points net support, while Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Sen. Hassan hold +5 and +2 points, respectively. This can be largely attributed to the senators’ high negative favorability among residents aged 18-24. While Sununu holds a +22-point margin of support among this demographic, Sens. Hassan and Shaheen have -14 and -13 points net favorability, respectively. Meanwhile, among residents aged 25-36, both senators have +9 points net favorability, but Gov. Sununu holds double the margin.
Among registered young New Hampshire residents, Gov. Sununu has a net approval rating of +18 points, while Sens. Shaheen and Hassan are underwater by -3 points and -1 point, respectively. But among unregistered residents, both senators hold high positive favorability; Sen. Shaheen holds +20 points net support, while Sen. Hassan holds +13 points. About a third of unregistered residents don’t know enough about either Democratic senator to form an opinion. This is a high enough margin that voter registration, education, and mobilization, coupled with the positive trends among unregistered residents toward both Democratic senators, may close the current gap of support.
Both Parties Are Widely Disliked by Young NH Residents
Overall, both the Democratic and Republican parties suffer from wide unfavorability among young New Hampshire residents. However, Democrats have a steeper climb than Republicans in overcoming those numbers. Overall, Republicans hold -22 points of net favorability, but Democrats lag 2 points behind them. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, the gap is much wider; Republicans hold -30 points net favorability, but Democrats lag 7 points behind them. While the gap is much narrower among people ages 25-36 (-19 points for Republicans and -22 points for Democrats), across the board, Democrats are underperforming among younger residents.
Among registered residents, the same trend holds; Republicans are widely disliked, holding -27 points net favorability, but Democrats lag 4 points behind. Among unregistered residents, however, over a third of respondents don’t know enough about either party to make a decision, and residents are slightly more uncertain about Democrats than they are about Republicans. That being said, Democrats lag 6 points behind Republicans in favorability among unregistered residents.
Economy, Climate Change, Student Loan Debt Are Top Issues for Young NH Residents
When asked about the top five most important issues for young people in New Hampshire, strengthening the economy was ranked first by 65 percent of respondents, followed by addressing climate change at 51 percent.
When asked to select the top issue for young people, strengthening the economy and addressing climate change are again top priorities for young New Hampshire residents; 31 percent and 13 percent of respondents selected these as their top issues, respectively. Cancelling student loan debt is the third most-selected top priority among young New Hampshire residents, suggesting a high degree of salience for this issue.
In fact, addressing the student loan crisis proves to be a unifying point for young New Hampshire residents across the political spectrum and regardless of registration status. Overall, 66 percent of respondents widely support the Biden Administration’s extended moratorium on student loan payments, including 63 percent of Independents. In fact, the only demographic where less than 60 percent of residents support the extended moratorium is self-identified Republicans, 41 percent of whom support the policy.
Similarly, the policy proposal to cancel all federal student loan debt proves popular with every demographic except for Republicans. Sixty percent of residents overall support the policy, including 61 percent of self-identified Independents, 59 percent of registered residents, and 63 percent of unregistered residents. The proposal holds similar margins of support across residents aged 18-24 and residents aged 25-36.
Takeaways
Democrats operate at a disadvantage across enthusiasm and favorability in New Hampshire, but both parties are widely disliked by young New Hampshire residents. Among unregistered residents, there is a large margin of uncertainty regarding both parties. Voter education and targeting among this demographic will be key to closing the gap.
Economic issues are top-of-mind for young New Hampshire residents, with the cancellation of student loan debt providing a critical opportunity to consolidate the vote. The current moratorium on student loan debt is popular across all parties regardless of voter registration status, and the proposal to cancel all federal student loan debt proves similarly popular.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
Anika Dandekar (@AnikaDandekar) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a senior writer at Data for Progress.
Devi Ruia (@DeviRuia) is a press assistant at Data for Progress.