As the Midterms Approach, Voters Generally Affiliate Specific Issues With One Party
By Sabrina Jacobs and Lew Blank
Through campaigns, messaging, and policy decisions, different issues become associated with one party’s platform over the other.
In a recent survey, Data for Progress tested which issues are most associated with Democrats, Republicans, or neither party. We find that Democrats tend to be associated with expanding social programs and Republicans have become increasingly affiliated with restricting abortion access. Interestingly, members of a party will associate a bipartisan issue, such as increasing benefits to veterans, with their own party.
In the chart below, the left column displays the percentage of voters who associate the issue with Democrats minus the percentage of voters who associate the issue with Republicans. High, positive numbers indicate that voters strongly associate the issue with the Democratic Party. Negative numbers indicate that voters associate the issue with the Republican Party.
The right column displays the level of disagreement between Democratic voters and Republican voters on which party is associated with the issue. Low numbers in this column indicate that Democratic and Republican voters agree on which party supports the issue. High numbers in this column indicate that Democratic and Republican voters disagree on which party is associated with the issue — with Democratic voters claiming that their party supports the issue, and Republican voters claiming that their party supports the issue.
Issues That Are Strongly Associated With Democrats
Data for Progress finds Democrats are strongly associated with issues related to funding social programs, protecting the environment, and expanding healthcare.
Democrats are also linked to raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, which 70 percent of voters associate with the Democratic Party and 12 percent associate with the Republican Party — a +58-point margin.
Voters also think that Democrats are in favor of increasing incentives for electric vehicles. Data for Progress finds 64 percent of voters believe that Democrats support electric vehicle incentives, compared with 8 percent associating this policy with the Republican Party. With a +56-point margin, voters clearly find that Democrats strongly support increasing incentives.
Other issues were associated highly with the Democratic Party compared to the Republican Party. These include the $15 minimum wage (64 percent to 9 percent), clean energy investments (61 percent to 7 percent), and requiring background checks for gun sales (59 percent to 10 percent).
Since Democrats have been vocal about passing stricter gun control laws, it’s not surprising that 59 percent of voters associate passing background checks on all gun sales with Democrats.
Voters also affiliate Democrats with supporting affordable housing, Medicare expansion, and affordable childcare. Fifty-two percent of voters associate Democrats with building new affordable housing and 54 percent of voters believe that Democrats support expanding Medicare to cover vision, dental, and hearing. Only 13 percent of voters associate Medicare expansion with Republicans.
As for affordable childcare, 57 percent of voters associate Democrats with this issue. Voters also associate expanding Social Security (53 percent to 15 percent), developing multifamily housing (48 percent to 10 percent), and increasing funding for public schools (50 percent to 13 percent) with Democrats. After Betsy DeVos’ tenure as secretary of education and the Republican Party’s push for “school choice,” it makes sense that voters associate Democrats with funding for public schools.
Issues That Are Weakly Associated With Democrats
While issues like gun control and affordable childcare are strongly associated with Democrats, other issues have a slightly weaker link to the party. However, voters still tend to think of Democrats when they consider the following issues.
Forty-nine percent of voters believe Democrats support allowing Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug costs, while 14 percent of voters believe Republicans support this issue, giving the Democratic Party a +35-point edge.
However, while voters overall clearly view Medicare drug price negotiation as a Democratic policy, Republican voters don’t see it the same way. Twenty-seven percent of Republican voters associate the issue with the Republican Party, compared to just 23 percent associating it with the Democratic Party. This is likely because Republican voters may support allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices and are unwilling to admit that their own party is weaker on this issue.
In contrast, Republican voters may be more willing to admit that the Republican Party is weak on an issue like environmental incentives. Only 9 percent of Republican voters associate the Republican Party with increasing incentives for electric vehicles, for example, indicating that they don’t find this issue as critical to their party platform.
Voters also believe that Democrats support capping the cost of insulin at $35 per month. Forty-nine percent of voters affiliate Democrats with this issue, compared with 16 percent affiliating it with Republicans. Interestingly, Republican voters are also less willing to concede capping the cost of insulin to the Democratic Party. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans believe that the issue is supported by the Republicans, compared to 28 percent associating it with Democrats. This is likely because some Republican voters understand the importance and popularity of the issue and want to believe that members of their own party are on board. In reality, capping insulin costs is a Democratic policy that has been continuously opposed by Republicans in Congress. If Republican voters were aware of their own party’s opposition to the policy, it might affect their support.
Voters associate Democrats with increasing the number of bike lanes in the city (39 percent to 6 percent) and raising fuel efficiency for all cars and trucks (44 percent to 14 percent). Democrats have taken much larger steps to combat climate change than Republicans and, as a result, environmental issues are either loosely or firmly linked to Democrats.
Forty-seven percent of voters also associate Democrats with reducing taxes for Americans making $75,000 or less per year. Only 24 percent of voters associate Republicans with this issue. However, a plurality of Republicans (42 percent to 23 percent) associate the Republican Party with reducing taxes for Americans making $75,000 or less. Republicans are generally in favor of lower taxes, and clearly see the popularity of reducing taxes for Americans. As a result, they want the Republican Party to support this issue.
While voters are slightly divided on which party supports requiring police officers to wear body cameras, they ultimately associate the issue with Democrats. Thirty-seven percent of voters believe that Democrats are in favor of this requirement, and 14 percent associate the requirement with Republicans — a +23-point margin. Data for Progress also finds 41 percent of voters think Democrats are in favor of increasing funding for infrastructure. Only 18 percent of voters believe Republicans want to increase funding.
States governed by Republicans have made it increasingly difficult to vote. For example, Arizona and Mississippi have enacted laws that require proof of citizenship for voter registration, defying the Supreme Court holding in Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona, Inc. Due to these and other restrictive policies, voting rights legislation is affiliated with Democrats rather than Republicans (45 percent to 26 percent). However, Republican voters are split on the issue, with 35 percent associating new voting rights legislation with Democrats and 35 percent associating it with Republicans.
Considering the messaging coming from the Republican Party on this issue, Republicans who consume right-wing media may be associating the restrictive voting policies with “voting rights.” In contrast, some Republicans may understand the gravity of voting rights and are instinctually associating their own party with these policies.
Issues That Are Not Associated With Either Party
Certain issues are more complex in the way that voters think about them. They aren’t necessarily associated with one party over the other, and voters lean toward linking the issue with their own party.
For example, 33 percent of voters believe Democrats are affiliated with spending on veterans benefits and 32 percent of voters associate the issue with Republicans. Fifty-seven percent of Democrats believe the Democratic Party supports spending on veterans benefits, but 57 percent of Republicans also associate this issue with their own party. This implies spending on veterans benefits is clearly a bipartisan policy that voters want to be a strong point for their party platform.
In contrast, raising the speed limit on the highway is generally a neutral issue. Fifty-seven percent of voters believe that neither party supports raising the speed limit on the highway. This includes 53 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Independents, and 56 percent of Republicans.
Voters are a bit more divided on which party they think supports reducing the national debt. Thirty percent of voters believe both parties support the issue, including 38 percent of Democrats, 32 percent of Independents, and 22 percent of Republicans.
Some of these issues are bipartisan and important in nature, so voters want to associate them with their own party. However, voters are less passionate about issues like the highway speed limit, so they’re willing to associate it with neither party.
Issues That Are Associated With Republicans
Republicans are generally associated with issues like military spending and restricting abortion rights. Voters' opinions regarding issues affiliated with the Republican Party are in line with messaging tactics leading up to the midterms.
Data for Progress finds 37 percent of voters believe that Republicans are in favor of constructing new nuclear power plants. This includes 31 percent of Democrats, 36 percent of Independents, and 45 percent of Republicans. Thirty percent of voters also believe that neither party supports the construction of new plants.
Voters largely believe that Republicans are affiliated with military spending. Fifty-six percent of voters think Republicans want to increase military spending, including 49 percent of Democrats, 54 percent of Independents, and 64 percent of Republicans. Only 15 percent of voters associate military spending with Democrats.
Considering the Republican Party’s vocal opposition to protecting the right to choose, it makes sense that 74 percent of voters think that Republicans support banning abortion. This includes 80 percent of Democrats, 71 percent of Independents, and 69 percent of Republicans. Only 12 percent of voters associate banning abortion with Democrats.
Voters think Republicans are affiliated with increasing the number of patrols on the U.S.-Mexico border. Seventy-three percent of voters associate Republicans with this issue, including 61 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of Independents, and 84 percent of Republicans. Just 8 percent of voters associate increasing patrols with Democrats — giving Republicans a -65-point margin.
Conclusion
Overall, Democrats are associated with increased spending and expansion for social programs, while voters generally don’t think of Republicans when it comes to these issues. Republicans are affiliated with issues like military spending and abortion bans, messages and policies that they have campaigned heavily on throughout the midterms.
As we get closer to the midterms, it’s important to understand which issues voters associate with each party. From there, candidates and representatives can have a better idea of which messages are reaching voters. This is especially important for Democratic policies that Republicans associate with the Republican Party, such as capping insulin costs. Democrats need to be vocal about both their accomplishments and Republican efforts to block legislation. Republican voters need to be made aware that their own party has been fundamental in blocking a policy that they support. Campaigning on Democratic issues that Republican voters support can be the key difference in a close election during the midterms.
Sabrina Jacobs is a digital fellow at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.