DeSantis Leads Trump in 2024 Florida GOP Primary
By Ethan Winter
In a new Data for Progress survey of 777 likely Republican primary voters in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis leads a field of twelve potential candidates, beating out former President Donald Trump by a two percentage point margin (44 percent DeSantis, 42 percent Trump).
Likely Republican primary voters in Florida generally have a favorable opinion of all potential candidates for the party’s nomination in 2024. DeSantis has a net favorable rating of +81 points, while Trump is viewed favorably by a +62 point margin.
In a head-to-head matchup, the Governor beats the former President by an eleven percentage point margin. Trump’s vote share declines by one point when tested in the large field, while DeSantis grows his share of the vote by eight points.
We also tested two other head-to-head matchups against Trump, pitting him against former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. In both of these scenarios, Trump wins easily. Trump beats Pence by a 58 percentage point margin (76 percent Trump, 18 percent Pence).
Additionally, Trump beats Scott by a 59 percentage point margin (75 percent Trump, 16 percent Scott).
While Florida Republican primary voters generally like Trump’s position on policy, attitudes towards Trump’s tone are much more mixed. Fifty-four percent say they like the former president’s tone while 46 percent say they dislike it.
Republican primary voters in Florida overwhelmingly approve of the job Trump did as president. The former president has a net job approval rating of +84 points (92 percent approve, eight percent disapprove), with 78 percent of likely primary voters “strongly” approving of the job he did. Trump holds a high job approval among both Trump voters (+98 points) and among DeSantis supporters (+74 points).
In addition, likely primary voters who see themselves more as supporters of Trump or of the Republican Party both strongly approve of the job he did, with him holding a net approval rating of +96 points and +84 points, respectively.
Read the full crosstabs below.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is a Lead Analyst at Data for Progress.