Virginia Voters Demand Forward Movement on Criminal Justice Reform
By Brian Burton
In the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections, Republican policymakers across the nation attempted to stoke fear in voters by claiming that Democrats weren’t doing enough to combat high crime rates. The same was true for a number of politicians in Richmond, Virginia, where members of the state’s executive branch argued that past criminal justice reforms have made Virginia less safe. However, a recent poll by Data For Progress shows that Virginians do not agree with many of the current administration’s stances on the justice system, which is focused on funding prisons and jails rather than crime prevention programs. Instead, likely voters want to see their leaders push for further reforms in the justice system and are willing to support candidates who will pursue a bold agenda.
We first asked respondents how the safety of their communities has been impacted by reforms implemented in recent years. Across all likely voters in Virginia, we find that residents feel just as safe, if not safer, after a variety of criminal justice reforms were implemented in the state. This can be most clearly seen in residents’ views on recent attempts to explicitly tackle racial profiling and pretextual traffic stops, after which they report feeling as safe or “more safe” in their communities by a +53-point margin. This finding is similarly supported in likely voters’ views on decriminalizing marijuana, offering earned sentence credits, and ending the use of the death penalty in sentencing, after which they feel no less safe by +52-point, +51-point, and +25-point margins, respectively. That these feelings persist despite active fearmongering about increased crime in the state further underlines Virginians’ openness to changing the system.
When asked how they want to see public safety funds being spent today, likely voters in Virginia overwhelmingly prefer investing in crime prevention programs over funding prisons and jails (76 percent support). Additionally, this policy receives consistent support across the political spectrum, with 83 percent of Democrats, 72 percent of Independents, and 73 percent of Republicans preferring funding crime prevention programs. Virginia voters have experienced the positive impacts of criminal justice reforms and they are ready to see public safety funding be spent proactively on strengthening their communities rather than incarcerating even more residents.
This point is further emphasized when we examine voters’ responses to different policy agendas regarding the justice system. We presented respondents with common policies, messages, and stances held by members of the current state executive branch. When asked whether they agree or disagree with each statement, voters express net disagreement with a broad set of stances ranging from pretextual traffic stops (with which voters disagree by a +13-point margin) to attempts to criminalize abortions (a position that is sharply rejected by a +69-point margin). This, in turn, speaks to a larger disconnect between the criminal justice system desired by Virginians and the one being pushed by the state’s current, Republican leadership.
Instead, Virginia voters want to see policymakers continue building on the criminal justice reforms made in the previous Democratic administrations. Specifically, we find that likely voters are more likely to support candidates who pushed for transformative policies across all facets of the criminal justice system, with voters most strongly supporting the state government ensuring resource equity between state prosecutors and public defenders (+65-point margin) and shifting from a carceral approach to a public health one when addressing substance use disorder (+60-point margin). Virginians also support the state significantly reshaping the juvenile justice system, with likely voters supporting prohibiting children from being detained in adult prisons and having juvenile justice handled by the Department of Health and Human Resources by +17-point and +25-point margins, respectively.
Virginians also want to see their fellow residents protected from discrimination after they have served their time. Across all likely voters in the state, more than 75 percent of Virginians support the state government actively preventing discrimination against residents with records. This policy receives robust bipartisan support, with 83 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of Independents, and 72 percent of Republicans supporting these protections. Voters understand that these residents have repaid their debt to society and so they should not be further punished upon their release.
Finally, voters in Virginia are ready to see their state government make serious investments in crime prevention, prison diversion, and other alternative programs. Among all likely voters in the state, reallocating funds away from prisons and toward these types of programs is supported by a +55-point margin. Furthermore, this reallocation receives strong bipartisan support, with 85 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of Independents supporting the measure, along with a majority of Republicans who support reallocating funds by a +36-point margin.
Contrary to what many state lawmakers might argue, Virginians do not support their egregious attempts to undo the progress made in the state’s criminal justice system. Many of their policy stances are deeply unpopular with residents in the state and run counter to the ideals of broad criminal justice reform that Virginians support. Should these representatives continue in their pursuit of such a regressive agenda, or should they choose not to fight to protect the state’s progress, they are likely to be in for a difficult time come Election Day next year.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
From October 22 to 26, 2022, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 654 likely voters in Virginia using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.