In Dealing With Ukraine, Voters Want to Avoid War With Russia
By David Guirgis
Amid rapidly escalating tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border, new Data for Progress polling finds that voters largely want to avoid war with Russia. The majority of voters surveyed prefer that the United States flex its diplomatic muscle against Russia, favoring sanctions and diplomatic deals with as few concessions as possible to Vladimir Putin, whom voters view unfavorably.
Voters support a wide range of economic and diplomatic approaches to handling the situation in Ukraine, as well as some indirect military options. Fifty-four percent of voters overall support sanctions on Russian political leaders, while sanctions on the full Russian economy carry a +30-point margin of support.
Similarly, striking a deal with Russia carries a +24-point margin of support among likely voters, with 47 percent supporting a deal and 23 percent opposing one. But the trend reverses when it is implied that a deal would come with concessions to the Russians; only 21 percent of voters would support a diplomatic deal under these circumstances.
This shift is likely due in part to the high unfavorability of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, among U.S. voters – 72 percent view him unfavorably.
However, when surveyed, 58 percent of voters believe the United States should not take military action to drive Russia out of Ukraine.
Similarly, a majority of voters believe that the United States should not send military personnel into Ukraine.
Likely informing voters’ desire not to enter a war with Russia is the fear of nuclear war; 61 percent of voters overall are concerned that the U.S. and Russia could enter nuclear conflict.
But while a majority of voters do not support direct conflict with Russia, a slim majority of voters do support indirect involvement. By a +10-point margin, voters support sending military equipment to Ukraine. (However, sending aid but no military equipment to the Ukranians carries a wider margin of support.)
Similarly, while voters do not support sending the military into Ukraine, voters do support sending U.S. military personnel into countries neighboring Ukraine that are United States allies; this carries a +15-point margin of support.
It is clear that voters are reluctant to enter direct conflict with the Russians. But while almost a third of voters prefer the United States not get involved at all, 45 percent believe that the United States should pursue economic and diplomatic measures in order to resolve the crisis. In other words, our polling indicates that voters are sympathetic towards Ukraine, and want to see a peaceful resolution.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.