The Economy Remains Key Issue for Midterm Voters, But Abortion Rights Have Risen in Importance Post-Dobbs
By Abby Springs
While the 2022 midterm elections are still several months away, voters are already considering the key factors that will contribute to their choices in November. To understand the issues most important to Americans, as well as the shifts in the electorate after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Data for Progress conducted two surveys to determine which issues are at the top of voters’ minds ahead of the midterms.
In a pre-Dobbs June 15-22 poll, Data for Progress asked voters to choose which out of 11 issues is the most important to their decision to vote in the midterms. Prior to Roe being overturned, a plurality of voters (48 percent) said the economy was their singular top issue — including 59 percent of Republicans and 35 percent of Democrats.
Among Democrats, the Republican agenda, abortion rights, climate change, and threats to democracy were the next most common topics ranked as the top issue by voters. Meanwhile, Republicans prioritized Democratic extremism, as well as corruption and threats to democracy as their key motivations in November.
As the midterm elections draw closer, our polling shows that voters’ priorities are still in flux. After the monumental Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, key constituencies for Democrats are increasingly considering abortion rights as their main motivator.
In our pre-Dobbs v. Jackson polling, we found that 6 percent of likely voters viewed abortion rights as the most important factor in their vote. In a July survey conducted soon after the Supreme Court’s ruling on Roe, Data for Progress again asked voters to select the most important issue to them in the midterms. We find that 13 percent of likely voters now view abortion rights as the most important contributor to their vote — a 7-point increase in issue importance. The most notable shifts are by partisanship, gender, and age. Prior to the Dobbs decision, 11 percent of Democrats, 9 percent of women, and 9 percent of voters under 45 selected abortion rights as their most important issue. Following the Supreme Court’s decision, nearly a quarter of Democrats (23 percent), 17 percent of women, and 22 percent of those under 45 perceive abortion rights as the their top issue in November.
But while abortion has risen in salience for Democratic voters, Americans across the political spectrum still see the economy as the most important issue factoring into their vote. If prices on food, gas, and other household goods remain high heading into November, it’s likely Democrats will take a hit — especially if they fail to achieve legislative victories that lower costs before the midterms.
With a Democratic trifecta in the federal government, voters expect Democrats to deliver for them on the issues affecting their day-to-day lives. If voters don’t see Democrats in office fighting to lower prices or defending bodily autonomy, the results in November will likely reflect that perception. Those running for office should focus on the key concerns to their voters, and those already in power must show Americans that Democrats are listening.
Abby Springs (@abby_springs) is the Press Assistant at Data for Progress.