Voters Favor Diplomacy, Not War, When It Comes to Stopping Iran’s Nuclear Program
By Grace Adcox
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known more commonly as the Iran Nuclear Deal, marked a critical turning point in both international diplomacy and nuclear nonproliferation. This 2015 agreement between the member states of the UN Security Council, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, Germany, and Iran set strict conditions for international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program while lifting burdensome economic sanctions imposed against the country.
Since President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018 and adopted a “maximum pressure” strategy against the state, Iran has taken dramatic steps to advance its nuclear program. Last month's meeting between President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in Israel spotlighted increasing concerns about Iran’s nuclear capabilities, while also raising questions about the pathways America might take going forward to halt Iran’s nuclear advancements, particularly as negotiations to enact a renewed nuclear deal have reached a stalemate.
Recent Data for Progress polling demonstrates that Americans view the prospect of a nuclear Iran as deeply alarming — and are more likely to support members of Congress who prioritize diplomacy.
Nearly half (45 percent) of likely voters say they would be “more likely” or “much more likely” to vote for a candidate who supported a renewed nuclear deal with Iran, as compared to only 15 percent who say a candidate’s support for a renewed deal would make them “less likely” or “much less likely” to vote for them in the fall.
This survey of 1,330 likely voters finds that 80 percent of respondents are “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned” about Iran gaining the ability to produce a nuclear weapon.
When asked about potential approaches to dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, respondents overwhelmingly favor diplomacy over military action across party lines. Among those surveyed, 83 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of Independents, and 72 percent of Republicans agree the U.S. should focus on applying diplomatic tools to end Iran’s nuclear program — as opposed to taking military action — in order to keep the world safer.
As the Biden Administration tries to bring Iran back into compliance with many of the terms set in the original nuclear deal, respondents indicate they would support a renewed agreement. Two-thirds (67 percent) of likely voters support a new agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, including 82 percent of Democrats, 65 percent of Independents, and 56 percent of Republicans.
A majority of likely voters also support Congress granting the president flexibility to broker a deal rather than hindering the Biden Administration’s diplomatic efforts. Fifty-three percent of respondents agree that allowing flexibility in negotiations to eventually reach a deal with Iran is more important than Congress standing its ground and potentially missing an opportunity to broker an agreement.
When thinking about three main pathways that the U.S. could take in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, respondents overwhelmingly favor a diplomatic approach. Among all likely voters, 74 percent of respondents indicate they support the U.S. signing a nuclear agreement, as compared to 8 percent who support the U.S. taking military action against Iran, and 5 percent who support non-intervention and allowing Iran to continue to develop its nuclear program.
With Iran expected to continue developing its nuclear program — and potentially produce a nuclear weapon with the enriched uranium it possesses — respondents are split on whom they would blame should Iran build a nuclear weapon. Among all likely voters, 33 percent say they would blame President Biden, while 34 percent say they would blame former President Trump, who pulled the United States out of the original Iran Nuclear Deal during his tenure in office.
Partisan divides show a majority of Democrats would assign blame to Trump (62 percent), while most Republicans would assign blame to Biden (61 percent), with a split among Independents leaning slightly toward blaming Trump (32 percent Trump, 25 percent Biden).
The strategy of maximum pressure against Iran has failed to curb its nuclear program. Taking a diplomatic approach with the support of not only U.S. allies, but also American voters, can offer a more sustainable solution to prevent further nuclear proliferation. Congress and President Biden should take bold steps forward to ensure a renewed nuclear deal with Iran is an option of first resort, staking a strong claim for peace in the international community.
Grace Adcox (@graceadcox) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.