Voters Affirm the Senate’s Mandate to Fill Judicial Vacancies Ahead of the Midterm Elections
By Bella Kumar and Grace Adcox
Ahead of the midterm elections, there are over 79 vacancies in the United States federal judiciary. As these elections approach, cautious observers have questioned whether leaving these seats unfilled might result in another Republican blockade on confirming nominees to these vacancies, much like the 2016 GOP refusal to hold a confirmation hearing for President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland. The Senate Judiciary Committee is also facing massive bottlenecks and struggling to schedule hearings for nominees in these critical months ahead of the midterm elections — the outcomes of which may determine whether we must wait until 2024 to fill these seats.
New Demand Justice and Data for Progress polling shows 68 percent of voters report some knowledge of federal judge positions and how these positions are filled, including 68 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of Independents, and 68 percent of Republicans. Notably, federal judges receive lifetime appointments, meaning across decades they can greatly impact state laws and even federal laws through their influence in the broader judicial system. Eleven percent of likely voters report knowing “a lot,” 57 percent report knowing “a little,” and 32 percent report knowing “nothing at all” about these positions in the judiciary.
Based on current vacancies, pending nominees, and time remaining for the Senate Judiciary Committee to hold hearings, experts expect that the Senate could leave dozens of these judicial positions unfilled by the end of the year. Seventy-one percent of voters say it is “very urgent” or “somewhat urgent” for the Senate to fill these empty federal judge positions. This includes 86 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Independents, and 58 percent of Republicans.
A few proposals have been made to fill federal judicial vacancies ahead of the midterm elections. Voters support the Senate holding additional hearings to consider more of President Biden's nominees for federal judge positions by a +17-point margin, including 80 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Independents.
With limited time before the midterms, attention has turned to the Senate Judiciary Committee’s agenda. In recent weeks, a number of hearings and letters signed by members of the committee have highlighted some potential priorities that may be addressed during these remaining weeks. When asked in another recent Demand Justice and Data for Progress poll what should be the top priority for the committee, voters resoundingly agree that the Senate Judiciary Committee should focus on uncovering evidence related to the January 6th riot at the Capitol and on confirming pro-choice judicial nominees to fill federal court vacancies. Among likely Democratic voters in particular, confirming pro-choice judicial nominees rises to the top priority for respondents by a wide margin.
In comparison to these top priorities, likely voters across partisan identity strongly oppose the Senate Judiciary Committee holding hearings to take action on antitrust exemptions for Major League Baseball. Other committee priorities fall somewhere in the middle, including holding hearings to identify threats to election workers, examining data privacy risks on major social media platforms like Twitter, and examining market competition in the credit card industry as well as high card fees.
Recently, President Biden nominated Julie Rikelman, a prominent reproductive rights attorney who represented the abortion clinic in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and supports the right to an abortion, to a lifetime appointment in the federal judiciary. Forty-six percent of voters agree that President Biden should nominate more judges like this nominee, while 41 percent of voters said he should nominate fewer judges like this nominee. Supporters include 76 percent of Democrats, 50 percent of Independents, and 16 percent of Republicans.
With Roe v. Wade effectively overturned by the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization earlier this summer, states are taking up the issue of legislating abortion rights. Federally-appointed judges will likely hear cases over the coming months and years about these state abortion laws and issue decisions in response to these cases. When asked about nominating and confirming federal judges who support protecting abortion rights, a majority (62 percent) of likely voters indicate this is “very important” or “somewhat important” to them. This includes an overwhelming 90 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Independents, and 37 percent of Republicans.
With the midterm elections only a few months away, the Senate should take this remaining time to respond to the strong majority of likely voters who view judicial nominee confirmation as an urgent priority. Voters want to see the Senate prioritize hearing and confirming federal nominees to the judiciary, and the Senate should heed these demands ahead of decisive midterm elections.
Bella Kumar (@bellakkumar) is a communications intern at Data for Progress.
Grace Adcox (@graceadcox) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.