Swing State Voters Convinced to Vote for Democrats When Told of GOP Plans to Gut Social Programs to Fund Tax Breaks for the Wealthy

By Anika Dandekar and Evangel Penumaka

A new survey from Data for Progress and Priorities USA of 1,513 likely voters in eight swing states, reveals Democratic messages on Social Security, healthcare, and taxes are seen as the most convincing reasons to vote for Democrats over Republicans in the midterm elections. 

Using a MaxDiff methodology, we asked voters to rank which of 17 Democratic responses to Representative Kevin McCarthy's so-called Commitment to America plan are most persuasive to vote for Democrats. Among all likely swing state voters, the most convincing message details the Republican plan to cut Social Security and Medicare in order to give tax breaks to the wealthy, just like they did in 2017. The second-most convincing message focuses on the GOP’s plan to defund the Affordable Care Act and raise healthcare costs for working families. The third-most convincing message focuses on the GOP blocking future progress that will build on the accomplishments of Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. 

Full messages, in order of voters’ preferences, are listed under Survey Methodology.

 
 

Swing state voters across all parties think the most convincing message to vote for Democrats is the one discussing the GOP cutting programs like Medicare and Social Security and lowering taxes on the wealthy and big corporations just like they did in 2017. Republicans funding tax breaks by cutting public spending on healthcare and preventing progress on a range of issues (i.e., prescription drug pricing, education, climate change) are also viewed among the top four reasons to vote for Democrats by swing state voters across party lines.

For Democratic and Independent swing state voters, Republicans taking extreme policy positions on abortion rather than truly focusing on the economy is among the most convincing reasons to vote for a Democrat in Congress this November.

For Republican swing state voters, GOP threats to the Department of Education, which could decrease or suspend Pell Grants and student loans, are a convincing reason to vote for Democrats in the midterms. 

 
 

Conclusion

Our research reveals that swing state voters do not want to sacrifice essential social programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act in order to line the pockets of wealthy individuals and corporations. Democrats running for office in critical battleground states should stress how GOP leaders like Kevin McCarthy want to pursue such policies in order to make the most effective case to voters this election season.

Toplines for this polling can be found here.


Anika Dandekar (@anikadandekar) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.

Evangel Penumaka is a lead analyst at Data for Progress.

Survey Methodology

From September 13 to 18, 2022, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,513 likely voters using web panel respondents from the following states: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NH, NV, PA, WI. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points. 

The messages with our abbreviations, in order of swing state voters’ preferences, are as follows:

  • [ECONOMY – TAXES] Republicans say that they will fight rising inflation by cutting government spending, including many programs that President Biden enacted through the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats say that this means cutting programs like Medicare and Social Security — and lowering taxes on the wealthy and big corporations just like Republicans did in 2017.

  • [ECONOMY – HEALTHCARE] Republicans say that they will fight rising inflation by cutting government spending, including many programs that President Biden enacted through the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats say that Republicans will gut the ACA, Medicare, and Medicaid to fund tax breaks for the rich and raise healthcare costs for working families.

  • [ECONOMY – PROGRESS] Republicans say that they will fight rising inflation by cutting government spending, including many programs that President Biden enacted through the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats say that this will prevent any progress on improving prescription drug prices, education, healthcare, and climate.

  • [ECONOMY – ABORTION] Republicans say that they will fight rising inflation by cutting government spending, including many programs that President Biden enacted through the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats say that instead of focusing on making our economy stronger, Republicans will pass extreme policies like a national abortion ban.

  • [ACCOUNTABILITY – VOTING RIGHTS] Republicans say that they will reclaim congressional oversight to hold the Biden Administration accountable and restore faith in free and fair elections. Democrats say that Republicans are working to make elections less fair — state Republicans have introduced over 440 voter suppression bills to make it harder for people to vote.

  • [FREE SPEECH – COLLEGE] Republicans say that they will give parents more control over education and promote school choice. Democrats say that Republicans will close the federal Department of Education, which would mean eliminating federal student loans, Pell Grants, and other means that help families afford college.

  • [ACCOUNTABILITY – JAN. 6] Republicans say that they will reclaim congressional oversight to hold the Biden Administration accountable and restore faith in free and fair elections. Democrats say that Republicans will stop the investigation into the attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6th and focus on lies and conspiracy theories instead.

  • [ECONOMY – COVID] Republicans say that they will fight rising inflation by cutting government spending, including many programs that President Biden enacted through the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats say that cutting crucial government funds will make us more vulnerable and less prepared to tackle another national crisis like COVID-19.

  • [ACCOUNTABILITY – STOCKS] Republicans say that they will reclaim congressional oversight to hold the Biden Administration accountable and restore faith in free and fair elections. Democrats say the Republicans will kill a Democratic-led effort to clean up government corruption and prevent members of Congress from trading stocks and enriching themselves from their position of power.

  • [ACCOUNTABILITY – DELIVER] Republicans say that they will reclaim congressional oversight to hold the Biden Administration accountable and restore faith in free and fair elections. Democrats say that Republicans will weaponize congressional investigations to prevent the Biden Administration from delivering for the American people by investigating lies and conspiracy theories.

  • [NATIONAL SECURITY – HYPOCRISY] Republicans say they will keep Americans safe by securing our southern border and standing up against foreign adversaries. Democrats say that Republicans are hypocrites on national security because they continue to defend Trump stealing classified documents, including nuclear secrets, from the White House.

  • [FREE SPEECH – TEACHING HISTORY] Republicans say that they will give parents more control over education and promote school choice. Democrats say that Republicans want to remove teaching of slavery and racism in American history from the classroom.

  • [FREE SPEECH – EDUCATION FUNDING] Republicans say that they will give parents more control over education and promote school choice. Democrats say that Republican plans for school choice will defund public schools and spend taxpayer money on private schools.

  • [FREE SPEECH – LGBTQ RIGHTS] Republicans say that they will give parents more control over education and promote school choice. Democrats say that Republicans have used these policies to fire teachers for being gay and threaten the safety of trans children and their parents.

  • [NATIONAL SECURITY – POLICE REFORM] Republicans say they will keep Americans safe by securing our southern border and standing up against foreign adversaries. Democrats say that Republicans blocked meaningful police reform that would make our communities safer by refusing to hold bad officers accountable.

  • [NATIONAL SECURITY – IMMIGRATION] Republicans say they will keep Americans safe by securing our southern border and standing up against foreign adversaries. Democrats say that if Republicans take back control, they will reinstate cruel Trump-era immigration policies like family separation that Joe Biden has worked to reverse.

  • [NATIONAL SECURITY – WASTEFUL SPENDING] Republicans say they will keep Americans safe by securing our southern border and standing up against foreign adversaries. Democrats say that Republicans will spend taxpayer money to build Donald Trump's racist and useless wall on the Mexican border.