New Polling Shows Partisan Divide on Urgency of Climate Change and Natural Disasters, Consensus on Lack of Faith in Government
By Dara Burke
The Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Congress in August, invests $369 billion to combat climate change and environmental injustice. The investment will be used to aid the transition to clean energy, positioning the nation to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and alleviating the burden of pollution on underserved communities. In an October poll, Data for Progress measured voters’ level of climate concern and their views on the IRA initiatives designed to mitigate this issue.
Sixty percent of voters believe that climate change is a crisis. But when the results are broken down by partisanship, Republicans and Democrats are profoundly divided in their views on the issue. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Independents believe that climate change is a crisis, while only 30 percent of Republicans believe it is a crisis.
Sixty percent of voters, including 75 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of Republicans, believe that the frequency of natural disasters has increased in recent years. Evidently, most Americans have noticed a change, regardless of whether they attribute it to climate change.
Additionally, 47 percent of voters are at least “somewhat concerned” that they will be personally affected by a natural disaster. But levels of concern are highly correlated with partisanship, as 63 percent of Democrats are either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned,” compared to 37 percent of Republicans. Twelve percent of both Republicans and Independents report being “very concerned,” which is half the percentage of Democrats who feel the same.
There is consensus among climate scientists that climate change has increased the intensity of natural disasters. However, only 59 percent of voters agree that there is at least a “somewhat strong” link between climate change and natural disasters. Republicans are much more likely to deny any connection between natural disasters and climate change; only 11 percent believe there is a “very strong” connection, compared to 56 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of Independents.
Notably, only 6 percent of voters feel “very optimistic” that the government can successfully address climate change. Democrats’ high level of concern is not matched by their level of confidence, with 21 percent expressing that they are “not optimistic” about the government’s ability to tackle the issue. Republicans are even less optimistic, with 31 percent expressing zero optimism. Meanwhile, another 31 percent of Republicans believe that climate change does not even need to be addressed.
Through the IRA’s Residential Clean Energy Tax Credit, consumers are eligible to receive a 30 percent refund of their spending on new household clean energy systems. Seventy percent of likely voters report some level of motivation to adopt clean energy, compared to 30 percent who are not motivated at all. Democrats are more motivated than Republicans, with 85 percent of the former reporting some level of motivation, compared to 55 percent of the latter. These results suggest that despite varying levels of motivation, the tax credit is likely to convince at least some Americans to adopt clean energy in their households. However, it is important to note that at least some of the voters who lack motivation to make the switch are likely renters who do not have the authority to install clean energy systems in their homes.
In addition to the Residential Clean Energy Tax Credit, the IRA introduced a tax credit for consumers who purchase a new or used electric vehicle. Thirty-nine percent of voters are at least “somewhat motivated” by the tax credit to purchase an electric vehicle, while 42 percent are “not at all” motivated. In general, voters are less motivated by the electric vehicle tax credit than the clean energy tax credit, perhaps because some are not planning to purchase any vehicle in the near future. As with the clean energy tax credit, Democrats are more motivated to purchase an electric vehicle than Republicans: 61 percent of Democrats are at least “somewhat motivated,” compared to 21 percent of Republicans.
When asked whether low-income communities are more adversely affected by climate change, 49 percent of voters agree. However, 63 percent of Republicans express that they do not believe low-income communities are more adversely affected. This result can likely be partially explained by many Republicans’ belief that climate change does not pose a significant threat to anyone. On the other hand, 71 percent of Democrats believe that low-income communities are, in fact, more adversely affected.
Studies have found that communities of color are disproportionately exposed to environmental health hazards, such as air pollution, compared to majority white communities. But 44 percent of voters don’t believe that communities of color are disproportionately affected by climate change, compared to 40 percent who do. Sixty-seven percent of Republicans believe that communities of color are not more adversely affected, while 63 percent of Democrats believe the opposite. Still, there is an 8-point disparity between Democrats’ attitude about the impacts of climate change on low-income communities and communities of color. Respondents were not informed about the environmental burden faced by communities of color, which is distinct from the burden faced by low-income communities. As a result, a lack of knowledge could account for that difference, especially because a greater percentage of respondents select “don’t know” when asked about communities of color than when asked about low-income communities.
With over half of voters expressing that climate change is a crisis, it is clear that Americans want to see the government take action. But voters across the partisan spectrum still lack faith in the government to create meaningful change on the issue, suggesting a need to more broadly advertise the potential of these initiatives. Successful implementation of the IRA’s climate and environmental justice initiatives, in addition to educating voters on their impact, is crucial for building trust. If these initiatives can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions while lowering energy costs and creating jobs, voters are likely to be won over. There is also potential for voter education on why certain communities are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and how the IRA aims to address that inequality.
Dara Burke is an intern at Data for Progress.