New Virginia Poll: VA Voters in Competitive Districts Do Not Trust Youngkin or Republicans When Learning About Candidates’ Positions on Abortion
New polling from Data for Progress finds that likely voters in competitive legislative districts in Virginia do not trust Republican leadership on the issue of abortion and believe politicians should not interfere with a patient’s private medical decisions. The poll was sponsored by Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC and Vote Pro-Choice and surveyed 2,033 likely voters in Virginia across 16 of the state’s most competitive Senate and House Delegate districts using SMS and web panel respondents.
The poll comes just four weeks before the November 7, 2023 elections for the Virginia Senate and Virginia House of Delegates – with the latter currently holding a slim Republican majority. The elections mark the first major elections in Virginia since the 2022 midterms, which saw Democrats win unexpected victories in part due to the Supreme Court’s unpopular decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
The survey asked likely Virginia voters about their trust in different sources when it comes to learning about candidates' positions on abortion and reproductive health care. We find that these voters do not trust Republican candidates by a -17-point margin, with a -27-point margin among Independents. Additionally, these voters do not trust Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin by a -4-point margin, with a -7-point margin among Independents.
Our survey also finds higher trust for learning about candidates’ positions on abortion from Democratic candidates, Planned Parenthood, and Vote Pro-Choice. We find that Virginia voters in competitive districts trust Democratic candidates by a +7-point margin, Planned Parenthood by a +17-point margin, and Vote Pro-Choice by a +19-point margin. Virginia Independents trust Democratic candidates by a +1-point margin, Planned Parenthood by a +16-point margin, and Vote Pro-Choice by a +14-point margin.
Governor Youngkin and many Republican candidates have endorsed a 15-week ban on abortion, which will be a legislative priority if Republicans gain a trifecta in the Virginia legislature. However, our survey finds that this position is not in line with likely Virginia voters in competitive legislative districts. When given two opposing statements on the issue of abortion, roughly two-thirds of these voters say that politicians and the government should not interfere in a patient’s personal reproductive health care decisions. Only one-third say that politicians and the government should restrict some types of health care decisions if it means protecting unborn life.
Survey Methodology
From September 19 to 27, 2023, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 2,033 likely voters in competitive legislative districts in Virginia using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
Competitive legislative districts include: SD-16, SD-17, SD-24, SD-27, SD-30, SD-31, HD-21, HD-22, HD-29, HD-30, HD-57, HD-58, HD-65, HD-82, HD-84, and HD-97.