Voters Do Not Want New Fossil Fuel Projects Prioritized on Public Lands
By Anika Dandekar
The Willow project is a controversial oil and gas drilling project in Alaska’s Arctic that was first approved by the Trump Administration and is the largest one proposed on federal lands. The project faced legal challenges from environmental groups and generated concerns about carbon emissions and potential negative impacts on wildlife in the ecologically sensitive region. Joe Biden, during his 2020 presidential campaign, promised to curtail new oil drilling on public lands. However, earlier this month, the Biden Administration’s Department of the Interior announced its approval of the Willow project.
New Data for Progress and Fossil Free Media polling, along with newly released polling from October, shows that voters’ approval of the Biden Administration's handling of climate change and the environment has diminished over the past five months, especially among Democrats, Independents, and voters under 50 in conjunction with these same groups hearing more about the Willow project over that time period.
Voters’ Baseline Approval of the Biden Administration on Climate: Five Months Ago and Now
Both in October 2022 and in March 2023 polling, we tested voters’ approval of the Biden Administration's handling of climate change and the environment before mentioning any specific policy or decision.
In October, 82 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of Independents, and 10 percent of Republicans said they approved of the administration’s handling of climate change and the environment. We see now that approval has dropped among Democrats and Independents and increased among Republicans, with 69 percent of Democrats, 30 percent of Independents, and 17 percent of Republicans saying the same.
In October, 48 percent of voters 18-29, 51 percent of voters 30-39, and 37 percent of voters 40-49 said they approved of the administration’s handling of climate change and the environment. This approval has dropped across all three age groups under 50; now only 35 percent of voters 18-29, 45 percent of voters 30-39, and 35 percent of voters 40-49 say they approve of the administration’s handling of climate change and the environment.
Voters’ Views on New Energy Projects on Public Lands
We asked voters if they think the federal government should prioritize new clean energy projects, like wind turbine or solar panel farms, or new fossil fuel projects, like oil and gas drilling sites, on public lands. A majority of voters, by a +21-point margin, say the federal government should prioritize clean energy projects. Majorities of Democrats and Independents say clean energy projects should be prioritized over fossil fuel projects on public lands by +58-point and +29-point margins, respectively. Voters under 50 want new clean energy projects to be prioritized over fossil fuel ones by large margins; over two-thirds of voters 18-29 (by a +47-point margin), 53 percent of voters 30-39 (by a +21-point margin), and 56 percent of voters 40-49 (by a +25-point margin) want clean energy projects like wind and solar farms to be prioritized on public lands over fossil fuel drilling.
Voters’ Awareness of the Willow Project Five Months Ago and Now
Data for Progress polling in October revealed that only 10 percent of voters had heard “a lot” or “some” about the Willow project, while the vast majority reported hearing “only a little” or “nothing at all.” The new polling reveals that over 20 percent of voters have heard a lot or some about the project.
Voters under 50 are those most likely to have heard about the Willow project since October. In October, 18 percent of voters 18-29, 14 percent of voters 30-39, and 12 percent of voters 40-49 said they’d heard a lot or some about the project; now, 29 percent of voters 18-29, 26 percent of voters 30-39, and 24 percent of voters 40-49 say the same.
Voters’ Attitudes Around Biden’s Climate Promises
In our March 2023 survey, we tested voters’ attitudes toward some climate campaign promises Biden made during his 2020 presidential campaign. Voters support:
Taking action against polluters who knowingly cause harm to public health or the environment, by a +68-point margin
Ensuring a clean energy power sector by no later than 2035, by a +25-point margin
Ending new leases on America’s public lands, by a +3-point margin
Voters’ Approval of Biden on Climate Before and After Learning About Willow and Promises
As mentioned, we tested the Biden Administration's approval rating on climate before introducing voters to Biden’s campaign promises and news of the Willow project approval. After introducing these topics, we retested the Biden Administration's approval rating on climate. Among all voters, the approval rating drops, on net, by 4 points with the context of the campaign promise to end new oil and gas drilling and the approval of the Willow project. This drop is most pronounced among Democrats, whose net Biden approval on climate drops by 33 points, and among Independents, whose net Biden approval on climate drops by 12 points. With the context of Biden’s campaign promises and the Willow project, Republicans’ net Biden approval increases by 32 points, but is still significantly underwater, at a -24-point margin.
We see increased disapproval of Biden on climate from voters across age groups, with the exception of those 50-59, when they are exposed to the context of Biden’s campaign promises and decision on Willow. In particular, net approval drops by a point among voters 18-29, by 16 points among voters 30-39, and by 5 points among voters 40-49. We see net approval of Biden’s handling of climate among voters age 60 and older drop as well.
Conclusion
This research shows that voters strongly support transitioning to clean energy projects instead of building fossil fuel projects on public lands. The recent approval of the controversial Willow project, which voters are hearing more about now than before, not only undermines Biden's campaign promise to transition to a fully clean power sector by no later than 2035, but also may explain why Democrats, Independents, and voters under 50 increasingly disapprove of the Biden Administration's handling of climate change and the environment.
Younger generations, most likely to be impacted by the further degradation of the environment, are paying attention. Furthermore, if the move to approve Willow was intended to win the favor of Independents concerned about high energy prices, this research suggests it may not have landed as intended. If the Biden Administration wants to maintain support from these important demographics, it will need to continue taking bold actions to curb emissions and keep its promises.
Anika Dandekar is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.