Harris Leads Trump by 3, Improves Standing on Economic Issues
One month before the presidential election, a new Data for Progress survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 points among likely voters nationwide. Nearly half of voters (49%), including a plurality of Independents (46%), choose Harris, while 46% choose Trump.
Notably, Harris has a trust advantage on most of the economic measures tested, including: supporting small businesses (+10 points), taxes on middle class Americans (+9), increasing wages (+5), lowering housing costs (+5), handling labor union policy (5%), improving our infrastructure (+3), lowering grocery costs (+2), creating jobs (+1), and protecting domestic manufacturing jobs (+1).
Furthermore, this survey finds Trump with just a +1-point trust advantage over Harris on “reducing inflation,” an issue that voters have consistently ranked as their most important when deciding whom to vote for. Data for Progress’ survey last month found Trump with a +5-point trust advantage over Harris on the issue of “inflation.”
Besides his slight advantage on inflation, Trump maintains a trust advantage on managing trade policy (+3) and lowering gas prices (+3). Voters are split evenly on whom they trust more to reduce the national debt, 44% vs. 44%.
It is unclear whether there will be another presidential debate between Harris and Trump, so the October 1 vice presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance may have been one of the last major public events showcasing the candidates in this election.
When voters who watched or read about the debate are asked who won, 48% say Vance and 46% say Walz. Among Independents, 47% say Vance and 44% say Walz.
However, after the vice presidential debate, Walz still clearly leads Vance in terms of favorability. Walz has a favorability rating of +6 (44% favorable, 38% unfavorable), while Vance’s rating is -6 (40% favorable, 46% unfavorable).
Similarly, Harris’ rating is +2, while Trump’s is -12. President Joe Biden sits at -10.
Lastly, voters were informed that, at the vice presidential debate, Vance refused to say whether he thinks Trump lost the 2020 election and whether he would contest the 2024 vote if Harris wins next month. When asked if they are concerned about this, a majority of voters (54%), including majorities of Democrats (81%) and Independents (52%) and more than a quarter of Republicans (28%), say they are concerned, while 46% say they are not concerned.
These findings suggest that Harris has been effective at improving voters’ perception of how she would handle various economic issues, including top issues like reducing inflation, and by extension, reducing the cost of housing and groceries. While a plurality of voters think Vance won the recent vice presidential debate, voters still have a more favorable opinion of Walz than Vance overall, and choose Harris over Trump by 3 points in a head-to-head race.
Cover photo attributable to Gage Skidmore.