Swing Voters Can Better Explain What Trump Stands For Than What Harris Stands For
This year, Data for Progress has released multiple swing voter reports to better understand the voters who could decide the 2024 presidential election — covering their demographics and ideologies, the issues they care about most, and the policies that could win over their votes.
In September, Data for Progress conducted a new series of surveys to provide an updated state of the race among swing voters. We find that while a plurality of swing voters say they could explain to a friend what Donald Trump stands for, a plurality say they could not explain what Kamala Harris stands for (although they have trouble explaining both).
These surveys also gauge swing voters’ broader sentiments toward politics and society — finding that they feel less like their lives are on the right track and less proud to live under the U.S. political system than likely voters overall.
An Updated State of the Race for Swing Voters
From September 12 to 27, 2024, Data for Progress conducted 6,152 interviews with U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents pooled over five surveys.
Data for Progress identified 437 swing voters from this sample using its unique swing voter methodology. This represents 7% of our sample, slightly lower than the 8% of likely voters who were identified as swing voters in our previous report.
Swing voters continue to have an unfavorable opinion of both presidential candidates and both vice presidential candidates, although they are slightly more favorable of Harris (-28 net favorability) and Tim Walz (-15) than they are of Trump (-38) and JD Vance (-24).
This survey finds that Harris leads Trump 50% to 45% among all likely voters in a two-way race.
Among swing voters, 28% say they would vote for Harris, 28% would pick Trump, and nearly half (44%) say they are not sure.
With the election quickly approaching, only 28% of swing voters say they’re paying “a great deal” or “a lot” of attention to news about national politics, compared with 48% of likely voters overall.
Familiarity With What Harris and Trump Stand For
Swing voters struggle to explain what both Harris and Trump stand for. Less than half of swing voters say they could explain to a friend what Trump stands for (48%), while the percentage of swing voters who say they could explain to a friend what Harris stands for is 12 points lower, at 36%.
Swing voters’ lower familiarity with Harris than Trump is also reflected in the favorability numbers shown above. While 6% of swing voters say they “haven’t heard enough to say” whether they are favorable or unfavorable of Trump, 10% say the same about Harris.
Sentiments Toward Politics and Society
As Data for Progress’ previous reports have consistently found, swing voters feel significantly less engaged and enthusiastic about politics than likely voters overall. To explore that sentiment more deeply, this survey asked swing voters a series of questions about their attitudes toward politics and society in general.
First, respondents were asked whether they feel more like a winner or loser in society. While 73% of likely voters feel more like a winner in society, only 62% of swing voters say the same. Most of this difference is due to a higher percentage of swing voters selecting “don’t know” (19% vs. 10%).
Similarly, swing voters (58%) say they feel their life is on the right track at a lower rate than likely voters overall (67%).
One of the largest disparities between swing voters and likely voters overall involves feelings of pride about the U.S. political system. While 67% of likely voters overall say they are proud to live under the U.S. political system, only 51% of swing voters say the same.
Levels of Hostile Sexism and Racial Resentment
The survey also analyzed levels of hostile sexism and racial resentment among swing voters.
To measure hostile sexism, the survey included four questions from the University of California-San Diego’s Ambivalent Sexism Inventory. For each response, voters were assigned a point value: 0 for strongly disagree, 1 for somewhat disagree, 2 for don't know, 3 for somewhat agree, and 4 for strongly agree. Cumulative scores of 0-5 represent "low" hostile sexism, scores of 6-11 represent "medium" hostile sexism, and scores of 12-16 represent "high" hostile sexism.
Nearly half of likely voters overall (46%) have low hostile sexism — particularly Democrats (63%). Meanwhile, 20% have high hostile sexism — particularly Republicans (30%).
Swing voters have lower rates of both low (38%) and high (15%) hostile sexism than likely voters overall. Instead, a plurality of swing voters have a medium level of hostile sexism (46%), compared with 33% of likely voters overall.
To measure racial resentment, the survey included the four-question racial resentment scale from the American National Election Study (ANES). For each response, voters were assigned a point value, ranging from 0 for strongly disagree/agree (depending on the question) to 4 for strongly disagree/agree (depending on the question). Cumulative scores of 0-5 represent "low" racial resentment, scores of 6-11 represent "medium" racial resentment, and scores of 12-16 represent "high" racial resentment.
About one-quarter of likely voters overall (27%) have a low level of racial resentment — particularly Democrats (44%). The same percentage of likely voters (27%) have a high level of racial resentment — particularly Republicans (46%).
Swing voters have lower rates of both low (18%) and high (22%) racial resentment than likely voters overall. Instead, a majority of swing voters have a medium level of racial resentment (60%), compared with 46% of likely voters overall.
Conclusion
These results indicate that, as the 2024 presidential election approaches, swing voters are more confident in their ability to explain what Trump stands for than what Harris stands for (although they have trouble explaining both). These voters continue to not pay much attention to national politics.
Swing voters feel less like winners in society and less like their lives are on the right track compared with voters overall, and feel less proud to live under the U.S. political system. They also have lower levels of low and high hostile sexism and racial resentment than likely voters overall, instead falling disproportionately in the middle.
Ahead of the election on November 5, it will be particularly important for the Harris campaign to explain who she is to these swing voters and emphasize that she will work for those who do not feel their lives are on the right track.