Final Data for Progress Swing State Polls Show Harris and Trump in Close Race: Harris Ahead by 2 in PA and NV, 1 in GA; Trump Up by 1 in AZ
Between October 25-31, Data for Progress surveyed likely voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — four battleground states across key regions in the 2024 election. The polls find Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Arizona. Furthermore, Democrats lead Republicans in the race to control the U.S. Senate in each race surveyed in these states. Additionally, ballot measures in Arizona and Nevada that would enshrine a right to abortion in their state constitutions are set to pass with strong majority support.
Race for the White House
Harris’ net favorability rating is higher than Trump’s in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, while they are tied in Arizona.
In the presidential race, Harris slightly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Arizona.
In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by 2 points — 50% to 48%. Pennsylvania’s ballot will also feature Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who receives 1% of the vote, and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, who receives less than 1%.
In Georgia, Harris leads Trump by 1 point — 49% to 48%. Georgia’s ballot will also feature Oliver, who receives 1% of the vote, as well as Stein and Independent Cornel West, both of whom receive less than 1%.
In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by 1 point — 48% to 47%. Arizona’s ballot will also feature Stein, who receives 1% of the vote, and Oliver, who receives less than 1%.
In Nevada, Harris leads Trump by 2 points — 49% to 47%. Nevada’s ballot will also feature Oliver, who receives 1%, and Independent American Party candidate Joel Skousen, who receives less than 1%.
Race for the Senate
Of the four states surveyed, there are elections for the U.S. Senate in three — Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. These polls find the Democrats leading in all three.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick by 4 points — 49% to 45%. The third-party candidates on the ballot each receive 1% of the vote or less.
In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 5 points — 50% to 45%. Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana receives 2% of the vote.
In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by 7 points — 49% to 42%. The third-party candidates on the ballot each receive 2% of the vote or less.
Abortion on the Ballot
Across all four of these swing states, a majority of voters say they are somewhat or very concerned about abortion being banned in their state.
In Arizona and Nevada, voters will have measures on their ballot this year asking whether or not the state constitution should guarantee a right to abortion. Data for Progress finds that these proposals are set to pass, with a strong majority of voters in both states indicating they will vote in favor.
In Arizona, 58% of voters say they would vote yes on Proposition 139, which would create a fundamental right to abortion under the state’s constitution, while 34% say they would vote no. A majority of Democrats (90%) and Independents (61%) in Arizona are supportive of this constitutional amendment, while Republicans are largely opposed (64%).
In Nevada, 66% of voters say they would vote yes on the abortion ballot measure State Question 6, while 26% say they would vote no. The proposed amendment to the Nevada Constitution would “create an individual's fundamental right to an abortion, without interference by state or local governments, whenever the abortion is performed by a qualified healthcare professional until fetal viability or when necessary to protect the health or life of the pregnant individual at any point during the pregnancy.”
A majority of Democrats (91%) and Independents (63%) in Nevada are supportive of this constitutional amendment, while Republicans are more split, with 49% opposed and 42% in support.
Issue Priorities
Similar to what Data for Progress has consistently found over the last year among likely voters nationwide, voters across all four of these swing states rank the “economy, jobs, and inflation” as their top issue when deciding whom to vote for. Following “economy, jobs, and inflation,” voters across these four swing states most frequently choose “threats to democracy,” “abortion,” and “immigration” as their top issues when deciding whom to vote for.
Methodology
The following surveys were conducted and funded internally by Data for Progress, and the samples were weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote. For more information on Data for Progress’ methodology, please visit dataforprogress.org/our-methodology.
Pennsylvania: From October 25 to 31, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 908 likely voters in Pennsylvania using SMS and web panel respondents. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points. The design effect for this survey is 1.63.
Georgia: From October 25 to 31, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 972 likely voters in Georgia using SMS, live caller, and web panel respondents. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points. The design effect for this survey is 1.57.
Arizona: From October 25 to 30, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,079 likely voters in Arizona using SMS, live caller, and web panel respondents. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points. The design effect for this survey is 1.66.
Nevada: From October 25 to 30, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 721 likely voters in Nevada using SMS and web panel respondents. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±4 percentage points. The design effect for this survey is 1.57.