Voters Across Party Lines Disapprove of Arizona’s Abortion Ban
By Lew Blank
In a new national survey, Data for Progress tested public opinion on the Arizona Supreme Court’s recent decision to uphold an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions in the state.
The survey, fielded in the days immediately after the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision, finds that a majority of likely voters have heard either “a lot” (34%) or “a little” (46%) about the ban.
After being informed that the ruling would ban nearly all abortions in Arizona — including in cases of rape and incest, and with exceptions only for when the life of the mother is in danger — 66% of voters say they disapprove of the ban. This includes 82% of Democrats, 66% of Independents, and 49% of Republicans.
Next, voters were asked in a split test whether they think Trump and congressional Republicans would expand or restrict abortion access if they gained power, or if they’d keep abortion access roughly the same. Forty-seven percent of voters think Trump will restrict abortion access if he wins the November 2024 election, while 51% think Republicans in Congress will restrict abortion access if they control both the House and Senate.
The largest gap comes from Independent voters — 51% say Republicans in Congress will restrict abortion access, while just 41% say Trump will restrict abortion access. Notably, nearly 1 in 5 Independent voters say they are unsure what Trump would do.
Voters were then asked specifically about Trump’s statement that abortion policy should be left up to the states, not the federal government. Respondents were evenly split on whether Trump is being honest (45%) or dishonest (45%). Views are highly divided by partisanship, with a strong majority of Democrats (81%) saying Trump is being dishonest and a strong majority of Republicans (80%) saying Trump is being honest.
Among Independents, 44% believe Trump is being honest while 41% believe he is being dishonest, with 15% unsure.
When asked who they think has the greatest influence over abortion policy, 18% of voters say the president and 24% say members of the U.S. Congress. Nearly half of voters think their state representatives (23%) or state officials like their governor or attorney general (24%) have the most influence.
The findings mirror recent Data for Progress polling which finds that about one-third of voters hold Republicans in Congress (34%) and Republicans in state office (33%) responsible for new abortion bans, while only 24% blame Trump.
This survey underscores the unpopularity of the Arizona Supreme Court’s recent decision on abortion among likely voters and reveals that voters are split on whether they think Trump is being honest or dishonest when he says abortion policy should be left up to the states, not the federal government.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a communications strategist at Data for Progress.
Survey Methodology
From April 11 to 12, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,207 U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points.