Voters See Trump as a Greater Threat to Democracy, Think Trials Are Fair and Should Be Expedient
A new survey from Data for Progress, in collaboration with Zeteo, examines the state of the 2024 presidential election race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, voters’ opinions on Trump’s legal woes, and which of the two candidates they think is a greater threat to democracy.
The polling finds that, in a two-way race, Biden receives 47% of the vote and Trump receives 46% of the vote. This includes a 45% to 41% edge for Biden among Independent voters.
The survey then asked voters for their choice in a six-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West. With these third-party candidates included, Biden’s vote share drops by 7 points to 40%, while Trump’s drops by 5 points to 41%. Kennedy receives 12% of the vote, including 19% of Independents, and West and Stein both receive 1% of the vote each.
These findings are consistent with Data for Progress’ last head-to-head survey, conducted March 27-29, in which Biden was up 1 point over Trump in the two-way race, but lost more of his vote share to third-party candidates compared with Trump in the six-way race.
Furthermore, the survey also finds that Biden’s favorability rating among the electorate is -11 points, with 55% of voters saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him and 44% saying they have a favorable opinion. In comparison, Trump’s favorability rating is -15, with 57% of voters saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him and 42% saying they have a favorable opinion. Trump has a slightly worse rating than Biden among Independents.
Kennedy is the only presidential candidate with a positive favorability rating (+8) among likely voters, which is driven by Republicans (+27) and Independents (+9). Of the 45% of voters who have a favorable opinion of Kennedy, 33% have a “somewhat favorable” opinion and only 12% have a “very favorable” opinion. Notably, nearly 1 in 5 voters also haven't heard enough to say whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kennedy.
A majority of voters (51%), including 53% of Independents, say Trump poses a greater threat to American democracy, compared with 44% who say Biden poses a greater threat.
When voters are asked about the timing of Trump's trial regarding the events of January 6, 2021, a plurality of voters (49%), including majorities of Democrats (85%) and Independents (54%), say Trump should face a trial before the November 2024 election. Thirty-nine percent of voters, including 78% of Republicans, say Trump should not face a trial for the events on January 6th at all, while 6% of voters say the trial should be after the election.
Data for Progress also measured voters’ reactions to Trump’s response to his indictment related to his alleged role in a hush money payment scheme and cover-up involving adult film star Stormy Daniels around the 2016 presidential election. Trump claimed the indictment is a "Witch-Hunt" by "Radical Left Democrats" to "destroy the Make America Great Again movement." When asked for their view, 54% of voters, including 90% of Democrats and 56% of Independents, believe the indictment “is fair legal action against fraud,” while 44% of voters, including 77% of Republicans and 34% of Independents, say the indictment “is unfair political play by Democrats.”
These findings underscore that the 2024 presidential race remains a dead heat — and that a majority of voters think Trump is a greater threat to democracy than Biden. In a six-way race, Biden loses more of his vote share to third-party candidates than Trump. However, a majority of Independents also think Trump’s Manhattan-based indictment is “fair legal action against fraud,” and that he should face a trial for the events on January 6th prior to the November 2024 election.
Survey Methodology
From May 1 to 2, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,240 U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points.