A Bipartisan Majority of Voters Support a Federal Ban on Raw Milk Products in the Face of Bird Flu Threat
By Matthew Cortland and Grace Adcox
In March, federal public health officials announced that the bird flu known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), specifically the H5N1 strain, had been confirmed in American dairy cattle for the first time.
Although H5N1 does not currently transmit easily to humans, according to the World Health Organization there were 889 known cases of human H5N1 infection worldwide between 2003 and April 1, 2024. Of those 889 cases, H5N1 caused 463 deaths (a case fatality rate of 52%). Federal public health officials have confirmed three human cases in the United States, including two exposed to the virus by working in proximity to infected dairy cows.
With the current outbreak impacting not only wild birds and poultry, but also now spreading through dairy cattle, public health experts are concerned that this increased mammal-to-mammal transmission may allow the virus to mutate in such a way that it poses increased danger to humans. Workers in the agricultural industry as well as individuals who consume unpasteurized dairy products are among those at greatest risk. To understand the public salience of these concerns, Data for Progress fielded a survey of 1,213 national likely voters in May.
After reading a description of the U.S. outbreak of avian influenza that was identified in 2022, including its impacts to poultry farms, dairy cattle, and — at the time the survey was fielding — two human workers in these industries, 49% of voters say they are “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned” about avian influenza becoming widespread in the U.S., with heightened concern among Democrats (61%).
In recent weeks, H5N1 fragments have been found in American commercially available milk. Importantly, milk pasteurization, the flash heating of milk to at least 161°F for at least 15 seconds, has been confirmed to destroy the H5N1 virus. When asked whether they believe raw milk and cheeses made from raw milk are safe or dangerous to consume, half of voters say they think unpasteurized dairy products are dangerous. In contrast, only 22% of voters think unpasteurized dairy products are safe to consume, with 27% unsure about the level of risk associated with these food products.
Finding such a high proportion of voters unsure about the safety of these products presents a significant opportunity for public health education about the dangers of unpasteurized dairy products. Pasteurization not only guards against H5N1, it also destroys other pathogens commonly found in raw milk, including salmonella, E. coli, and listeria.
After reading that some health experts have recommended banning the sale of foods made from raw dairy products in order to lower the risk of H5N1 spreading, 65% of likely voters say they would support banning the sale of raw dairy products. Support for a ban exists across party lines, with 80% of Democrats and 56% of both Independents and Republicans in favor.
Federal law currently bans the interstate sale of raw milk, but does not prohibit in-state sales.
Matthew Cortland (@mattbc) is a senior resident fellow at Data for Progress.
Grace Adcox (@GraceAdcox)is the Senior Climate Strategist at Data for Progress.
Survey Methodology
From May 17 to 19, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,213 U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points. Results for subgroups of the sample are subject to increased margins of error. Partisanship reflected in tabulations is based on self-identified party affiliation, not partisan registration. For more information please visit https://dataforprogress.org/our-methodology.