In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly Against Trump
Thursday night was the first presidential election debate of 2024 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia. A new Data for Progress flash poll fielded the following day finds that voters believe Biden performed worse than Trump during the debate. However, there is no clear indication that alternative Democrats would perform better than Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.
Voters’ Perceptions of the First Presidential Debate
Among all likely voters, 47% say they watched the debate live, while 23% say they saw clips from the debate online and 10% say they read about it. Twenty-one percent of voters did not watch footage or read about the debate.
Among those who watched the debate or read about the debate, 32% approve of Biden’s performance, including 63% of Democrats who watched or read about the debate. Fifty-one percent of likely voters who watched or read about the debate say they approve of Trump’s performance, a +19-point margin over Biden.
Biden’s performance is 50 points underwater among Independents who watched or read about the debate, compared to a -5-point disapproval rating among Independents for Trump’s performance.
When asked who won the debate, among voters who watched the debate or read about it, 30% say that Biden won, while 62% say that Trump won.
When asked about the performance of the moderators of the debate, 53% of voters who watched or read about it say the moderators did not do enough to fact-check the candidates. Additionally, 45% say the moderators did not do enough to force candidates to answer a question if they didn’t originally answer it.
When presented with an additional list of statements, likely voters say they have heard the most about the statement: “The only person on this stage [who] is a convicted felon is the man I'm looking at right now” (68% hearing “a lot” or “a little”). This is followed by “I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence” (64%) and “I didn’t have sex with a porn star” (64%).
Voters’ Perceptions of Biden’s Age and Leadership Qualities
Sixty-seven percent of voters say that Biden is too old to be president, while 35% say that Donald Trump is too old to be president. This does not represent a significant change from when Data for Progress previously surveyed this question before and after the State of the Union.
When asked to choose which candidate trait they’re more concerned about, 53% of voters say they are more concerned about Biden’s age and physical and mental health, while 42% say they are more concerned about Trump’s criminal charges and threats to democracy. In an April 19 to May 4 survey with 4,923 respondent interviews, 50% of voters said they were concerned about Biden’s age while 45% said they were more concerned about Trump’s criminal charges.
The survey also gave respondents a list of characteristics and asked whether they better apply to Trump or Biden, while a separate question asked whether they better apply to Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump holds a +14-point advantage over Biden on “fit to run the country,” while that advantage shrinks to just 3 points when compared to Harris.
Voters’ Perceptions of Biden and Alternative Democratic Candidates
Biden’s debate performance has led to significant debate among his supporters over whether he should step down as the Democratic nominee.
When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people, 44% of voters have a favorable view of Joe Biden, while 44% say they have a favorable view of Donald Trump.
Many potential alternative Democratic candidates are still unknown by a majority of voters, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Among those who a majority of voters have heard of, Vice President Kamala Harris has a -7-point approval rating, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has a +2-point approval rating, Senator Cory Booker has a +6-point approval rating, and California Governor Gavin Newsom has a -9-point approval rating.
The survey also asked voters about hypothetical head-to-heads between Trump and Biden, Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, Klobuchar, and Booker.
In a two-way matchup between Biden and Trump, 45% of voters choose Biden and 48% of voters choose Trump. Compared to Data for Progress’ last head-to-head survey, Trump’s vote share across subgroups has remained relatively stable while “don’t know” rates have grown larger. Harris performs the same as Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.
Among alternative candidates, no candidate performs significantly better than Biden against Trump in a head-to-head race, though more voters indicate they are “not sure” compared to the most well-known candidates.
Only 51% of Democrats and 35% of all likely voters say that Joe Biden should remain as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election. This represents a 12-point drop among Democrats since Data for Progress asked the same question in early March.
When asked who the Democratic Party should choose as a replacement nominee if Joe Biden decided to drop out, 39% of Democrats and 27% of all likely voters choose Vice President Harris.
Notably, today, only 68% of voters say that the 2024 presidential election will be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. This is a 12-point drop from a previous survey fielded March 13-15, when 80% said they would be the nominees. In addition to the debate on Thursday, Trump’s felony conviction in Manhattan criminal court occurred during the intervening period as well.
Overall, these results show that voters continue to be concerned about Biden’s age — but there is not yet clear evidence that an alternative nominee would significantly outperform him against Trump in a head-to-head matchup.