Harris Heads Into First Debate With Positive Favorability and Popular Economic Proposals
By Abby Springs and Lew Blank
On Tuesday, Sept. 10, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will meet face-to-face for the first time on the debate stage. In a new survey, Data for Progress asked likely voters what they’ve been hearing recently about the election and how they view the candidates as campaign season kicks into high gear.
Among likely voters, 62% say they plan to watch the upcoming debate. This represents a 6-point rise from June, when we asked the same question ahead of the first Biden-Trump debate.
As Harris and Trump prepare for their first debate, Harris is viewed favorably by likely voters by a +5-point margin, while her running mate, Tim Walz, is viewed favorably by a +7-point margin. Meanwhile, both Trump and vice presidential nominee JD Vance are underwater among likely voters, with -11-point net favorability for Trump and -10-point net favorability for Vance.
Half of likely voters expect Harris to win the upcoming debate, while 44% say they believe Trump will win. Among Independent voters, Harris has a 2-point lead on this question.
The survey also reveals that voters are primarily hearing positive information about the Harris-Walz ticket and negative information about the Trump-Vance ticket.
Among likely voters who have heard at least “a little” about Harris, 48% say what they’ve heard has been mostly positive, while 31% say it has been mostly negative. Only 5% of Democrats and 30% of Independents say what they’ve heard is mostly negative.
Voters who have heard at least “a little” about Trump report the inverse for him — 27% have heard mostly positive information, while 56% have heard mostly negative information. One-quarter of Republicans (25%) and a majority of Independents (61%) say that what they’ve heard is mostly negative.
The survey also shows the same pattern for the vice presidential candidates. Forty-six percent of voters who have heard about Walz say they’ve heard mostly positive things about him, while only 26% who have heard about Vance say the same.
Voters were also shown a list of topics relevant to the upcoming election and asked how much they had seen, heard, or read about each issue.
Voters have heard the most about Trump’s criminal cases, followed by abortion bans, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the southern border.
In August, Harris unveiled her economic agenda, a list of policy proposals designed to lower costs for families across the country.
The poll finds that Harris’ proposals are broadly popular, with majority support for each of the economic policies tested. This includes either a majority or plurality of Independents supporting every tested measure in Harris’ agenda. Additionally, 7 of the 10 tested policies are supported by a majority of Republicans.
The most popular proposal is capping out-of-pocket costs for insulin at $35 a month for all Americans, supported by 83% of likely voters overall, as well as 84% of Independents and 80% of Republicans.
Finally, voters think that the Harris-Walz campaign has been more effective than the Trump-Vance campaign by a +11-point margin, including a +8-point margin of Independents.
While only 7% of Democrats think the Trump-Vance campaign has been more effective, 14% of Republicans say the Harris-Walz campaign has been more effective.
These results show positive signs for Harris as she hopes to carry her momentum into her first debate against Trump. At this point in the race, voters believe Harris has run a more effective campaign than Trump, while Trump and Vance have struggled to land a positive message with voters.
Abby Springs (@abby_springs) is the Press Secretary at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a communications strategist at Data for Progress.
Cover photo attributed to Gage Skidmore.