Electoral College Victory for Joe Biden Could Hinge on Swaying White Working-Class Voters in Key States
By Jason Walsh
White working-class voters in the Midwest were a critical component of Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. If Joe Biden can earn the support of a critical mass of these voters it makes it much more likely he can win back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and secure an Electoral College victory.
But, how can he do that? What are the priorities of these voters? A new poll of 752 white working-class voters released by the BlueGreen Alliance helps answer those questions.
The poll focused on white registered voters with less than a four-year college degree in Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin who are not hardline Trump supporters and are therefore persuadable. The poll found that there is a significant opportunity for Joe Biden to earn the support of a critical mass of these voters with a focus on economic recovery, good jobs, and a clean environment. The poll excluded hardline Trump supporters—defined as voters who self-identify as strong Republicans who strongly approve of Donald Trump, which represents approximately 22 percent of all white registered voters with less than a four-year college degree.
Here’s what the poll found:
Among this critical segment of white working-class voters, a majority of voters who didn’t vote in 2016 or voted for a third-party candidate (51 percent) are already unlikely to vote for Trump in 2020 and 20 percent are undecided.
White working-class people see that Donald Trump values the wealthy and big corporations over working families. Only 33 percent of the voters believe Trump is mainly looking out for regular people; 52 percent of those polled say that Joe Biden mainly looks out for regular people.
However, those numbers for Biden are weaker among key groups in the poll. Third-party/non voters, undecided voters, and younger voters in the survey were less convinced that Biden was looking out for regular people.
These voters are not buying the conservative narrative that environmental laws harm the economy: 51 percent say that environmental laws help the economy and 78 percent say they either help or have no impact on the economy.
The poll also asked prospective voters to rank the jobs that should be prioritized for rebuilding the economy. Manufacturing jobs and clean energy jobs are critical components of economic recovery, with 49 percent and 47 percent respectively rating them as top priorities.
In addition, 55 percent of voters surveyed said ensuring people have clean air to breathe and clean water to drink was a topic they were very interested in hearing presidential candidates speak about during the campaign, with 85 percent very or fairly interested. This trailed only economic recovery, protecting people during the coronavirus outbreak, and affordable health care.
Concerns around Trump’s anti-worker, anti-environment policy actions were very strong. In particular, learning about Trump’s regulatory rollbacks on clean air, clean water, and worker safety gave voters doubts or concerns about re-electing him.
Clearly, bringing together a broad coalition and getting them to the polls—or to mail in their ballots—should be the priority for Biden’s campaign. To ensure an Electoral College victory and to sweep Donald Trump out of the White House, Biden’s campaign should be reaching out to this group of white, working-class voters. Focusing on a strong economic recovery, rebuilding American manufacturing, and highlighting Trump’s attacks on the environment and workers are key messages that resonate with these voters.
Meeting these voters where they are at means talking about the need for pro-worker, pro-environment policies to get our economy back on track, focusing on manufacturing and clean energy as engines for that recovery, and showing them how Trump’s attacks on environmental and worker protections are impacting our efforts to clean up our air and water and keep workers safe on the job. If the Biden campaign does that, some of the very same voters that helped put Donald Trump in the White House can help kick him out.
Jason Walsh is the Executive Director of the BlueGreen Alliance (@BGAlliance)