Who’s Winning in the TX-06 Special Election? The Democratic Agenda
By Prerna Jagadeesh and Isa Alomran
As we approach the May 1st special election in Texas’ 6th Congressional District, all eyes are watching to see if this historically Republican district’s increasingly suburban Democratic electorate will result in a win for a Democratic candidate.
In a new poll conducted by Data for Progress of 344 likely TX-06 voters between April 5th and April 12th, we find that Republican candidate Susan Wright leads the field by eight points, polling at 22 percent, while the next highest candidate, Democratic candidate Jana Lynne Sanchez, polls at 16 percent. However, with 14 percent of voters supporting one of 16 candidates unlikely to win, the race is still very much in flux.
With no candidate currently receiving the required majority of votes to be declared the winner, our polling indicates the race will likely go to a runoff election. We simulated a runoff between Wright and Sanchez and found that Wright is the likely winner, supported by 53 percent of likely voters; Sanchez trails 10 points behind, with 43 percent support.
Although TX-06 voters are split on supporting a Democratic candidate, they strongly support the Democratic agenda. We asked likely voters if they supported or opposed the American Rescue Plan and found that by an 18 percentage-point margin, TX-06 voters support the proposal. This support extends across self-identified Democrats and independents, who back the ARP by margins of 92 and 21 points, respectively. Republicans, meanwhile, oppose it by a 53-point margin.
Further, we found that TX-06 voters want a Member of Congress who feels the same way about the American Rescue Plan as they do: by a margin of 15 percent, voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate who supported the American Rescue Plan. Across partisanship, Democrats prefer a candidate who supported the American Rescue Plan by 88 points, while a plurality of Independents say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who backed the American Rescue Plan. Republicans prefer a candidate who doesn’t support the American Rescue Plan by 53 points.
TX-06 voters don’t just approve of Biden’s pandemic relief legislation — they also support the Democratic agenda closer to home. Data for Progress asked voters whether they supported or opposed Senate Bill 7 in the Texas legislature, legislation that imposes voting restrictions by limiting early voting hours, bans drive-through voting, and limits the number of polling machines that polling locations in highly populated areas can have. We found that by a margin of 19 points, a strong majority of voters opposed this legislation curtailing Texans’ voting rights. Moreover, voters said they were less likely to vote for a Congressional candidate supporting SB7 by a margin of 12 points.
Data for Progress polling finds that even in a conservative district, Biden’s big investments in COVID relief are popular, while voting restrictions are not. Though the question of whether a Democrat will be the next Member of Congress representing TX-06 is very much still up in the air, what is clear is that Democratic ideas and policies have already won in the eyes of TX-06 voters.
Prerna Jagadeesh (@PrernaJagadeesh) is a writer at Data for Progress.
Isa Alomran is a Polling Analyst at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From April 5 to April 12, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 344 likely special election voters in Texas' 6th Congressional District using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
Question Wording:
If the May 1st special election for the U.S. Congress was being held today, in Texas's 6th District, who would you vote for?
Republican Susan Wright
Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez
Republican Jake Ellzey
Republican Brian Harrison
Democrat Lydia Bean
Democrat Shawn Lassiter
Independent Adrian Mizher
Another candidate
No one
Who would you support in a runoff election if these were the candidates?
Republican Susan Wright
Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez
No one
The American Rescue Plan is a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package that includes $1,400 stimulus checks, money for vaccines and testing, money to reopen schools, grants to businesses affected by the pandemic and expanded unemployment benefits. This bill was signed into law in March, 2021.
Do you support or oppose the American Rescue Plan?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don't know
The American Rescue Plan is a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package that includes $1,400 stimulus checks, money for vaccines and testing, money to reopen schools, grants to businesses affected by the pandemic and expanded unemployment benefits. This bill was signed into law in March, 2021.
Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate that supports the American Rescue Plan?
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
Wouldn't affect my choice
Recently, the Texas Senate passed Senate Bill 7, a new bill that imposes restrictions on voting. The bill limits early voting hours that were previously extended to allow shift workers to vote, bans drive-thru voting, and requires that all polling locations in a county have an equal number of voting machines which outlaws large voting centers that make the voting process quicker in areas with more residents.
Do you support or oppose this bill?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don't know
Recently, the Texas Senate passed Senate Bill 7, a new bill that imposes restrictions on voting. The bill limits early voting hours, bans drive-thru voting, and outlaws large voting centers that make the voting process more efficient in areas with more residents.
Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate that supports this bill?
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
Wouldn't affect my choice