This Choice Matters: Branding Trump on Abortion Will Be Necessary in 2024
By Evangel Penumaka
In the lead-up to the 2024 Iowa caucuses, former President Donald Trump boasted about his role in stripping millions of women of the right to abortion, claiming that he’s “delivered” on abortion by overturning Roe v. Wade and that he’s “proud to have done it.” President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have seized upon these statements with new ads and a series of nationwide events aimed at centering abortion rights as a key issue for the 2024 election.
The Biden campaign is right to capitalize on this soundbite, as Data for Progress polling shows that voters do not currently perceive Trump as a threat to abortion rights.
As the 2024 election approaches, Democrats need to be very clear to voters: Trump is a direct threat to abortion rights, and Democrats will work hard to restore these rights. Democrats must convince voters that their vote in 2024 is not just a vote against Trump and Republican extremism, but also a vote to protect and enshrine fundamental rights that have been lost.
Recent Data for Progress polling shows that voters understand the looming threat of a national abortion ban. Sixty-four percent of all likely voters say they are either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about further restrictions on reproductive rights, such as a national ban on abortion. Voters also understand that Republicans in general will attempt to limit reproductive freedoms if they win control of Congress in November. For example, banning abortion at either 15 weeks or six weeks of pregnancy is among the top policies that voters think Republicans would pass.
However, previous Data for Progress polling has found that when voters are asked what policies Trump will attempt to pass if elected president, only 48% believe he will pursue a national abortion ban.
In addition to viewing Trump as less extreme on abortion, voters also don’t attribute responsibility to him. Following Trump’s recent remarks, a Biden-Harris campaign ad contrasted video of Trump bragging about his role in the Dobbs decision (and stating that “there has to be some form” of punishment for women who get abortions) with examples of the real-life consequences of this decision, such as the story of Kate Cox, a Texas woman who was forced to flee the state to access an abortion.
When voters are asked whom they hold responsible for new bans or restrictions, about half of voters attribute responsibility to the Supreme Court, while one-third attribute blame to Republicans in Congress (34%) and Republicans in state office (33%), and only 24% blame Trump. Understandably, voters attribute more direct responsibility to the Supreme Court, in spite of the hand Trump had in appointing extremist, anti-abortion justices to the court. Biden’s focus on directing the blame to Trump, however, could help voters make more of a connection to the role Trump has played in curtailing abortion rights.
Examining these findings by partisanship, we see that a majority of Democrats (59%) and Independents (56%) view the Supreme Court as responsible for new bans or restrictions on abortions. In contrast, only 24% of Independents blame Trump, compared with 36% of Democrats. These results underscore the urgent need to call out Trump’s responsibility for this curtailing of reproductive rights. Voters are rightly concerned about an outright ban on abortion, and as victories in 2022 have shown, abortion is a mobilizing issue to key groups of voters that will be vital to Democratic victories in November.
Biden’s need to remind voters of Trump’s record on reproductive freedom is also demonstrated by voters’ current opinions on how the upcoming election will impact various issues. We find that only a slim majority of voters say the outcome of the 2024 presidential election is “very important” when it comes to addressing abortion (52%), compared with other issues that land at the top like inflation (71%), taxes and government spending (65%), national security and foreign policy (65%), and immigration (64%).
Since Dobbs, voters have chosen to protect abortion rights at the state level in six ballot initiatives, and groups in a dozen others have made efforts to put abortion on the ballot in November. While state-level initiatives to protect abortion can help turn out voters that may boost the top of the ticket, voters still need to be reminded that federal legislation is also a key part of protecting abortion nationwide, even in states that have bans on the books.
In addition to the challenge Democrats face in raising the salience of Trump’s responsibility for Dobbs and the impact this decision has had, they also must overcome the hopelessness that many voters feel. As we observed in our 2022 youth survey, 40% of 18- to 29-year-olds think the next generation of Americans will have fewer rights, and more than half (53%) think their vote matters “only a little” or “not at all.” Multiple data points from Gallup and Pew Research Center also illustrate a broader decline in the public’s trust of institutions.
Democrats will need to ensure that decreased confidence in voters’ futures and in our government does not lead to decreased civic engagement — where voters decide to stay home come November. This includes giving voters a clear path on how Democrats will protect reproductive rights, codify Roe, and start to create a more positive future.
As Trump waffles on the issue of abortion by taking credit for overturning Roe while also claiming to be more moderate on abortion exceptions, Democrats need to continue pushing the blame on Trump, branding him as extreme on this issue, and raising the salience of abortion rights for this election. It is imperative that voters don’t lose sight of what Trump and Republicans are trying to do: control our bodies and freedoms.
But Democrats also must rebuild the trust of voters, to convince them that Democrats will do everything they can, if given control of the White House and Congress come 2025, to restore and protect fundamental rights, and show voters that our institutions can be responsive to voters and work for the people.
Evangel Penumaka (@evangelpenumaka) is the polling principal at Data for Progress.