We Polled Black Voters. Here's What We Found.
By Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle, Max McCall, and Leon Sit
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25% of its total voters, and it was Biden’s heavy margins with this group that powered him to the nomination in 2020, thanks to his victory in the South Carolina Democratic Primary after crushing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Four years on, President Biden’s candidacy finds itself on the edge of collapse following his late-June debate debacle against former President Donald Trump, and although key allies like Jim Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) continue to back him publicly, multiple elected officials have openly called for his exit from the Democratic ticket.
Some of the discourse supporting Biden centers around his strength with Black voters, and the backing he has received from this group. While some public polls show erosion with this demographic, there remain virtually no public, post-debate polls specifically studying Black voters and their views.
To get a better sense of this, we partnered with Data For Progress to conduct a survey of 1,011 Black likely voters in the seven core battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll was fielded between July 12 and 14, using an online web panel, and was weighted for age, gender, race, education, geography, and recalled 2020 vote.
To begin with, it remains clear that Black voters retain a broadly favorable view of President Biden, with a 72% favorability rating. However, it should be noted that this is not exactly an indicator of any Biden-specific strength — Biden’s favorability numbers lag behind those of Vice President Kamala Harris (75%), the Democratic Party (78%), and former President Obama (90%).
In terms of actual voting intention, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 76–17 in a head-to-head and 69–15 in a six-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy, Chase Oliver, Cornel West, and Jill Stein. Both of these figures suggest some loss of support with Black voters — our likely voter sample gives him roughly 86% of the two-way Black vote across these states in 2020 (by recalled vote), and currently, he receives 82% in our head-to-head after removing undecideds.
In the head-to-head, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by an identical 76–17 margin, but the Vice President performs better in the “full ballot”, 71–14. This is driven primarily by better numbers with Independent voters, who are significantly more likely to flake off to third-party and Independent candidates. It is worth noting that in a five-way race, Harris does a point or two better with nearly every subgroup of Black voters — across age, gender, education, and party affiliation.
We also tested the generic ballot among Black voters. In the generic congressional matchup, the Democrat leads the Republican 80–13, with 7% of respondents unsure. Overall, we find little evidence to support the theory of massive racial depolarization, but it does seem like Democrats are likely to continue losing a bit of ground with Black voters in 2024. This would simply be in keeping with an ongoing trend observed since President Obama’s high-water marks with this group in 2008.
One potential reason for this phenomenon continuing over time could be a widening generational gap, as older Black voters are far more likely to be Democrats than their younger counterparts are. For example, Biden wins 91% of Black voters over 65 in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, but wins just 64% of Black voters under 45. As these Black voters born after 1960 begin to make up a larger share of the electorate over time, more “racial depolarization” could follow, if this pattern continues.
Although Black voters are ready to back President Biden by large margins if he chooses to stay in the race, it is clear that they are far more split on whether he should. While a clear majority of respondents reject the claim that he is too old to be president, Black voters are noticeably more divided on the question of whether he should step aside.
Our survey finds that 49% of Black voters think that Biden should remain in the race, compared with 43% who believe he should drop out. Notably, there is a clear divide observed among partisan lines; 60% of Black Democrats believe he should stay in, while this figure is just 33% with Independents and 12% with Republicans.
One of the other big dividing lines observed is among age — 62% of Black voters under 30 and 58% of Black voters between the ages of 30 and 44 believe that Biden should step aside. Older respondents, meanwhile, are more opposed to Biden leaving the race, with 68% of Black respondents over 65 favoring Biden staying in. This lines up with the primary elections, where older Black voters were consistently Biden’s strongest group, carrying him to commanding victories in states like South Carolina.
We also asked respondents whether Biden should take time to reconsider running in the presidential election. A majority (52%) agree that Biden should take time to reconsider, compared with 42% who disagree. While a commanding number of Black Independent and Republican respondents agree that Biden should reconsider running, Black Democrats are more divided — they split 49–46 on whether the president should reconsider his bid.
It’s worth noting, however, that if Biden does withdraw from the election, our survey suggests that Black voters are considerably more likely than not to view his decision as strengthening his legacy rather than weakening it, by a margin of 48–34.
In the event of a Biden exit, one way for the Democratic Party to address dissatisfaction among Black voters would be to coalesce around Vice President Kamala Harris. While 44% of Black voters (and 53% of Black Democrats) say they would be “somewhat” or “very” angry if Biden were to withdraw, 68% of them (and 74% of Black Democrats) say they would be “somewhat” or “very” happy if Biden were to withdraw and Harris was to become the nominee.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, our survey finds that couching an appeal for Harris in terms of “identity” doesn’t prove very compelling — despite the overwhelming support for an endorsement of her, just 34% agree with the notion that “Democrats cannot pass over the first Black female vice president and should choose her as the nominee” over the option to “pick the person who has the best chance to beat Donald Trump”.
But in the event that Biden withdraws, 63% of Black voters and 74% of Black Democrats say that he should immediately endorse Harris, rather than endorsing someone else or waiting for the party to settle on a nominee through a competitive process.
There are different ways to interpret and reconcile these two findings. But to us, this suggests that while Kamala Harris is a very popular pick, justifying her selection through an appeal to identity would probably be unnecessary, unconvincing and counterproductive with Black voters. Given that they break for her overwhelmingly when asked, however, it remains clear that in this context, she would be the consensus pick among this demographic if a new nominee becomes necessary.