Harris Can Win Swing Voters by Emphasizing Populist Economic Policies and Protecting Freedoms
Introduction
In late May, Data for Progress released our inaugural swing voter report, a deep look into the voters who could determine the outcome of the 2024 election. The report found that swing voters in the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump were less engaged with politics, prioritized economic issues, and were concerned about Biden’s age and ability to handle the job.
Seven weeks later, Biden dropped out of the presidential race after a debate performance that amplified those concerns about his age and fitness. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will now lead the Democratic ticket in the race against Donald Trump in 2024.
Unburdened by age and fitness concerns, Harris has already improved her position in the race against Trump compared to Biden. Biden exited the race with a 3-point deficit against Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. As of August 20, Harris now has a nearly 3-point lead. Data for Progress polling has found a +9-point increase in Harris’ favorability since Biden’s exit, with voter enthusiasm surging among Democrats and Independents.
The voters who are undecided between Harris and Trump today are not the same voters who were undecided between Biden and Trump in May. Using the same methodological approach, updated to replace Biden with Harris, we are now collecting a smaller number of swing voters in our surveys, a sign that Harris has already captured a number of voters who were not certain to vote for Biden.
In May, before Biden exited the race, Data for Progress identified approximately 14% of likely voters as swing voters. Today, Data for Progress’ swing voter sample accounts for only about 8% of the voting population. We find a smaller proportion of Biden 2020 voters in this sample, suggesting that Harris may have “brought home” or won over a significant number of Biden 2020 voters who had been unsure about voting for him again.
With less than 80 days until the election and the race remaining a tossup, Harris will need to persuade swing voters to cast their ballots for her over Trump and third-party candidates. These voters are less certain of their feelings toward Harris than they are of Trump, meaning Harris has a particularly strong opportunity to define herself to swing voters.
Our new report examines who these Harris-Trump swing voters are, from their demographics and ideologies to their top issues — and what Harris can do to win them over.
Key Takeaways
The percentage of swing voters has nearly halved since Biden’s exit from the race.
The current sample of Harris-Trump swing voters is slightly less liberal and less Democratic than the previous sample of Biden-Trump swing voters. In the Harris-Trump swing voter group, 38% report having voted for Trump in 2020, compared to 31% in our past report of Biden-Trump swing voters.
Swing voters continue to prioritize economic issues and broadly trust Trump over Harris to handle the economy.
Swing voters prefer a candidate who “protects our freedoms,” is “honest,” and “fights for the working class.”
A plurality of swing voters say Harris is more moderate than Trump — and a clear majority say Trump is more extreme than Harris.
While Biden-Trump swing voters clearly selected Biden’s age as their top concern, no concern about Harris similarly rises to the top.
Despite largely self-identifying as “moderate,” swing voters select mainstream liberal policies — expanding Medicare coverage, raising taxes on the wealthy, increasing protections for abortion, and raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour — alongside increasing border security as top actions that would win over their votes.
Methodology
From August 1 to August 15, 2024, Data for Progress conducted 6,067 respondent interviews of U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents pooled over five surveys. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote. The surveys were conducted in English.
To identify swing voters, we used the same methodology from our inaugural report, but updated to replace Biden with Harris:
In our surveys, we asked respondents various questions to create our scoring method. These include:
Whom a respondent voted for in the 2020 presidential election;
Whom a respondent would vote for in a two-way 2024 race between Harris and Trump;
Whom a respondent would vote for in a six-way 2024 race between Harris, Trump, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West;
Whom a respondent would vote for in a generic congressional race between an unnamed Democrat and Republican;
A respondent’s levels of favorability for Harris and Trump on a five-point scale;
A respondent’s level of approval for Harris’ job performance as vice president on a five-point scale; and
Whether a respondent says they are considering Harris, Trump, a third-party candidate, and/or not voting in 2024.
If a respondent meets three of the four indicators below, they are considered a swing voter.
Their vote choices between 2020 vote recall, the 2024 two-way ballot, and the 2024 six-way ballot are not consistent (e.g., they do not consistently choose Biden/Harris or Trump).
Their vote choices between the 2024 two-way ballot, the 2024 six-way ballot, and generic congressional ballot are not all consistent.
They report similar ratings for Harris favorability and Trump favorability, or for Harris’ job approval and Trump favorability.
They say they are considering at least two options in 2024 (Harris, Trump, third-party, not voting).
As additional controls, we also exclude all voters who say they are "definitely" voting for a certain candidate on the six-way ballot, along with voters who say they will “definitely not vote” at all in the 2024 presidential election.
When applied to four pooled surveys from August 1 to August 15, 2024, this methodology produces a sample of 464 likely voters (8% of the total likely voter sample).
Demographics and Ideology
Demographics
Swing voters remain younger, less white, and less male than the overall voter population.
Political Engagement
Only 24% of swing voters say they pay “a great deal” or “a lot” of attention to national politics, compared with 46% of likely voters overall.
Partisanship and Ideology
A higher percentage of Harris-Trump swing voters identify as “true Independents” who self-identify as Independent and also do not lean toward either party, compared with swing voters in the Biden-Trump race, and a lower percentage of these voters specifically identify as Democrats.
A plurality of Harris-Trump swing voters (30%) are “true independents,” a slight 5-point increase from our sample of Biden-Trump swing voters. Comparatively, only 8% of likely voters overall are “true Independents.” Meanwhile, 35% of Harris-Trump swing voters identify as a Democrat or an Independent who leans toward Democrats, an 8-point decrease compared with Biden-Trump swing voters.
Like Biden-Trump swing voters, Harris-Trump swing voters identify as moderate (56%) at a higher rate than likely voters overall (36%). However, Harris-Trump swing voters are slightly less liberal (17%) than our previous sample of Biden-Trump swing voters (23%).
The decrease in liberal and Democratic swing voters may indicate that some Democratic and liberal-leaning voters who were once uncertain about voting for Biden have now decided that they will be voting for Harris, making the overall sample of swing voters slightly more conservative.
Plans for Voting in the 2024 Election
Enthusiasm and Engagement
Swing voters remain much less enthusiastic about the election than likely voters overall, even as enthusiasm among Democratic and Independent voters has increased since Biden’s exit.
While 54% of likely voters overall say they’re more enthusiastic than usual about the 2024 election, only 17% of swing voters feel the same way.
Forty percent of swing voters say they’re less enthusiastic than normal, compared with only 13% of likely voters overall.
Favorability of Biden and Trump
Swing voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, Harris, and Trump. Among Harris-Trump swing voters, Biden holds a -48-point net favorability rating, Harris holds a -30-point net favorability rating, and Trump holds a -31-point net favorability rating.
Interestingly, 11% of swing voters don’t know enough about Harris to form an opinion, compared with only 5% for Trump, suggesting that Harris has a stronger opportunity to boost her favorability with swing voters who don’t already know much about her.
Vote Choice
Among Harris-Trump swing voters, a plurality (38%) say they voted for Trump in 2020, while 36% say they voted for Biden. This is a 12-point decrease in Biden 2020 voters and a 7-point increase in Trump 2020 voters compared to our sample of Biden-Trump swing voters. This suggests that Harris may have brought home a significant number of voters who voted for Biden in 2020 but were unsure about voting for him again.
In a two-way race, Harris-Trump swing voters back Trump over Harris by a 34%-28% margin, with 38% unsure.
In a six-way race with third-party candidates included, 12% of swing voters back Harris, 9% back Trump, and 48% back a third-party candidate (a majority of those for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is now expected to drop out of the race, according to reports from after these surveys were fielded). Thirty-one percent are unsure.
Views on Key Issues
Top Issues
Once again, economic issues emerge as the dominant concern for swing voters, far outpacing any other issue on the list. Thirty-seven percent of swing voters say “the economy, jobs, and inflation” is the most important issue for them when deciding who to vote for, compared to 30% of likely voters overall who say the same.
Among voters who select “the economy, jobs, and inflation” as their top issue, 53% select inflation as their top economic concern. Among these voters, a clear majority (64%) say that the cost of food and groceries is the main reason they are concerned about inflation, followed by the cost of rent or home prices (22%).
The second-most selected issue, “programs like Social Security and Medicare,” is selected by 9% of swing voters, followed by immigration (8%) and taxes and government spending (7%). Swing voters select immigration, threats to democracy, and abortion at lower rates than likely voters overall.
While Donald Trump only holds a slight trust advantage over Kamala Harris on economic issues among likely voters overall, he holds a much stronger advantage among swing voters. Swing voters trust Trump more than Harris on inflation (+31-point Trump advantage) and jobs and the economy (+27-point Trump advantage).
Trump also outperforms Harris on immigration (+36-point Trump advantage), national security and foreign policy (+24-point Trump advantage), handling the Israel-Palestine conflict (+19-point Trump advantage), and crime and public safety (+18-point Trump advantage).
However, Harris holds a significant edge over Trump on other issues. These include LGBTQ+ issues (+35-point Harris advantage), abortion (+32-point Harris advantage), race relations (+28-point Harris advantage), climate change and the environment (+27-point Harris advantage), health care (+18-point Harris advantage), and programs like Social Security and Medicare (+11-point Harris advantage).
The candidates perform similarly on threats to democracy (+6-point Trump advantage) and gun policy (+4-point Trump advantage).
About one-third of swing voters on average (32%) report that they “don’t know” who they trust on these key issues.
Swing Voters’ Biggest Concerns About Harris and Trump
What Turns Swing Voters Away From Harris and Trump
Since Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, Republicans have deployed attacks on her race, ideology, honesty, credibility, and her handling of the border. Based on previous open-ended data research, Data for Progress provided swing voters with a list of statements and asked which, if any, are reasons they might not vote for Kamala Harris.
Swing voters’ top choices for why they might not vote for Harris are:
“I still need to learn more about Harris” (26%)
“Harris can't manage the border” (25%)
“Harris did not accomplish enough as vice president” (24%)
“Harris is too liberal” (23%)
“Harris was chosen by elites, not voters” (23%)
Still, swing voters are not yet united around any particular concern about Harris to the same degree as Biden — 55% of swing voters in our Biden-Trump report selected Biden’s age as the reason they might not vote for him, followed by 40% who selected “Biden is incompetent.”
When selecting reasons why they might not vote for her, fewer than 1 in 10 swing voters say that they do not want a female president (4%), that Harris is too conservative (4%), or that “Harris is too weird or off-putting” (7%).
The survey also provided swing voters with a list of statements about Trump, again informed by Data for Progress’ previous open-ended data research, and asked them to select the reasons they might not vote for Trump.
A plurality of swing voters (27%) say that “Trump is corrupt,” followed by “Trump is a liar” (26%) and “Trump is a criminal” (25%).
Swing Voters’ Perceptions of Harris and Trump
By a +5-point margin, swing voters say that Kamala Harris is more moderate than Donald Trump, although 51% are unsure. However, swing voters are in much stronger agreement that Trump is the more extreme candidate in the race, with a majority (53%) saying that “extreme” applies more to Trump than Harris (21%).
How Harris Can Win Swing Voters in November
The survey also tested various messaging frames and policies to see which are the most persuasive to swing voters. First, voters were given a list of characteristics and asked to select the qualities that are most important to them in a candidate for president.
Among swing voters, the top choice is a presidential candidate who “protects our freedoms” — and Trump has a +11-point trust advantage over Harris on this attribute.
The good news for Harris is that she has a trust advantage on the next two qualities that swing voters find important, with a +13-point advantage on being “honest” and a +11-point advantage on “fights for the working class”.
The options chosen least by swing voters include “charismatic,” “invests in public programs,” and “patriotic.”
Respondents also read a list of policy positions that included liberal and moderate policies and were asked to choose up to three policies that would convince them to definitely vote for Harris.
The top policy — chosen by 24% of swing voters — is “expand Medicare coverage to include vision, dental, and hearing.” This is followed by “increase border security” (19%), “raise taxes on the wealthy” (19%), “increase protections for abortion” (17%), “raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour” (17%), “cancel student debt for more borrowers” (15%), and “crack down on corporate price gouging” (14%).
The bottom five policies, selected by fewer than 10% of swing voters, are: cutting spending on public programs, conditioning military aid to Israel, increasing oil drilling, adding work requirements to SNAP, and increasing funding for police officers.
Further Insights
Swing voters are a diverse group that pays far less attention to politics than the average voter. Even as inflation has fallen, these voters still prioritize the economy — and high prices in particular — above all other issues. Broadly speaking, they want to see which of the candidates can best protect their freedoms and fight for the working class.
In May, Joe Biden’s largest vulnerability was his age. As a younger, more vigorous candidate, Harris has improved upon Biden’s standing in the polls, likely capturing a number of Biden-Trump swing voters who voted for Biden in 2020 but were unsure about voting for him again.
These swing voters largely identify as moderate and are now slightly more conservative than the previous sample of Biden-Trump swing voters. However, they largely select progressive policy priorities, including populist economic policies and increasing protections for abortion, as top actions that would win over their votes, alongside increasing border security.
Specifically, 4 of the top 5 policies that would draw swing voters to Harris are expanding Medicare coverage, raising taxes on the wealthy, increasing protections for abortion, and raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour.
Meanwhile, 4 of the 5 worst-performing policies are more moderate or conservative ones: cutting spending on public programs, increasing oil drilling, adding work requirements for SNAP, and increasing funding for police officers.
Fortunately for Harris, she has already been campaigning on many of these winning issues. With less than 80 days to go, Harris must prove to voters that she will be better than Trump at protecting their freedoms and continue to raise the volume on populist economic policies that speak to lowering costs and fighting for the working class.
This report was authored by Abby Springs and Lew Blank, with contributions from Rob Todaro, Ryan O’Donnell, Danielle Deiseroth, and the entire Data for Progress team.