Oil Taxes, Rural Subsistence, Public School Funding: These Are a Few of Alaska Voters’ Favorite Things
By Jason Katz-Brown
The Alaska Senate and House of Representatives both have bipartisan majority caucuses containing both Democratic and Republican members, befitting a state where only 37% of voters are registered with one of the two major parties.
So it’s no surprise that new Data for Progress polling finds such bipartisan consensus across a range of Alaska’s priorities, from rural subsistence to insurance coverage of contraception. For the legislature’s top priority, education funding, Data for Progress finds Alaska voters, especially parents, support the majority caucus’s push for a broad increase in per-student funding. As legislators confront a state budget deficit, Alaska voters are united across party and across geography behind oil taxes proposed by the majority caucus. And after heavy use of his veto pen last year, including vetoing bills to increase education funding and to require insurance to cover 12-month contraceptive prescriptions, Governor Mike Dunleavy is viewed increasingly unfavorably, especially by parents.
This new polling extends Data for Progress’ research from last session, which surveyed Alaska’s 2024 legislative priorities and election, and accurately anticipated Donald Trump and Nick Begich’s 2024 winning margins each within 2 points.
Education Funding
School funding has again been a focal point of this year’s legislative session after Dunleavy vetoed a bipartisan education bill last year that would have significantly raised state education funding. Meanwhile, Alaska’s per-student spending has fallen to 15% below the national average and school districts across the state have made plans to close schools, increase class sizes, and cut staff and programs.
We first asked Alaska voters if they think the state should increase, decrease, or keep funding the same for K–12 public schools, the University of Alaska, and homeschool students:
A majority of Alaska voters (55%) think the state should increase funding for K–12 public schools, compared with 17% who think funding should decrease.
About the same share of Alaska voters think the state should increase funding for the University of Alaska (36%) as think it should stay the same (35%).
A plurality of Alaska voters (41%) think the state should keep funding the same for homeschool students, compared with 30% who think funding should increase.
Next, Alaska voters were asked to choose between a “large increase” and a “small or no increase” to the Base Student Allocation (BSA), the amount of money public schools receive per student each year from the state government, after seeing arguments for each side.
Half (50%) of Alaska voters think there should be a large increase in the BSA, while 39% think there should be a small increase or none at all.
A majority (60%) of parents of minors think there should be a large BSA increase, compared with only 34% preferring a small or no increase.
Non-parents 39 years old or younger align with parents, with 70% preferring a large BSA increase.
These results echo last year’s survey, which also found a majority of Alaska voters preferred a large increase to the BSA.
Finally, respondents chose between two competing education proposals: a broad increase to the BSA of $1,808 phased in over three years and tied to inflation, as proposed in the Alaska House; and smaller, targeted funding increases tied to policy changes like allowing the state to approve charter schools, as proposed by Dunleavy.
Alaska voters overall are roughly split on these proposals, with 45% choosing the broad increase to the BSA and 42% choosing the smaller, targeted funding tied to policy changes.
Parents of minors prefer the broad increase to the BSA, with 55% picking it compared with only 36% going for the smaller, targeted funding tied to policy changes.
Non-parents under 40 again align with parents, with 57% choosing the broad BSA increase.
State Budget
Alaska voters were next asked whether they support or oppose several approaches being discussed in Juneau as lawmakers face a potential state budget deficit.
Of the five approaches surveyed, only increasing oil taxes has majority support (61% support to 30% opposed, for a +31-point margin of support). The margin of support for increasing oil taxes is positive in every region of the state.
Only 39% of Alaska voters support introducing a state sales tax. The margin of support for a sales tax is negative in every region of the state except Southeast, which has a +2-point margin of support. A state income tax is even more unpopular, by a −37-point margin.
Paying a Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) of $1,000 or less is also unpopular, by a −23-point margin. Its margin of support is negative across every demographic and region except for college-educated and Southeast respondents, each with a +2-point margin of support.
Only 30% of Alaska voters support drawing from the Constitutional Budget Reserve.
Subsequently, Alaska voters were asked if they support or oppose one oil tax increase long considered by the legislature: changing Alaska’s tax structure so Hilcorp, a major oil and gas producer, would pay state corporate income tax.
Alaska voters decisively support this proposal to make Hilcorp pay state corporate income tax, with 77% in support and only 17% opposed.
Two-thirds of Republicans (66%) support this proposal.
This proposal enjoys broad popular support in every region of Alaska. Even in the Kenai Peninsula, where Southcentral Alaska’s natural gas shortage looms and Hilcorp is the primary producer, voters support Hilcorp paying state corporate income tax by a +50-point margin. The proposal is only more popular in every other part of the state.
As lawmakers balance competing desires to increase education funding and pay out a robust PFD, Alaska voters were posed a similar hypothetical: If the state of Alaska increased its budget by $100 million, would you prefer to increase K–12 public education funding, or increase the PFD? A majority of Alaska voters (54%) prefer to increase school funding, compared with 38% who prefer to increase the PFD.
Covering 12-Month Contraceptive Prescriptions
Currently, most women in Alaska must refill contraceptive prescriptions every month or every three months. Last year’s House Bill 17 would have required insurance to cover up to a 12-month supply of contraceptives when prescribed. Data for Progress’ polling last year showed this proposal to be overwhelmingly popular, and it passed the Senate and House along votes of 16–3 and 26–13, respectively, before being vetoed by Dunleavy.
This proposal continues to be widely popular, with 73% of Alaska voters in support and only 21% opposed. Notably, Republican voters support this measure by a +21-point margin.
State Employee Retirement Program
Alaska has been without a public employee pension program for new workers since 2006, when the Alaska Legislature abolished it in favor of a 401(k)-like program in which benefits are not guaranteed. Lawmakers have proposed a new retirement program that would return the state's workforce to a pension plan.
The polling reflects majority support to create this new retirement program for state employees, with a +17-point margin of support statewide.
Psychiatric Care for Minors
In the face of reporting about the extensive use of seclusion and restraints on children inside Alaska’s psychiatric facilities, some lawmakers are proposing to increase transparency and oversight of children in the state’s psychiatric hospitals.
This proposal is universally supported, garnering support from more than 3 in 4 Alaska voters (76%), with only 7% opposed.
Alaskans Support Rural Subsistence, Not Trawling
Fish are important to Alaska economically: Alaska harvests more seafood than all other U.S. states combined. But most crucially, fish, especially salmon, are the cornerstone of food security, culture, and community in many parts of Alaska.
Subsistence fishing constitutes about 60% of the diet of rural residents, most of whom are Alaska Native. Salmon are essential to the cultural and spiritual well-being and survival of Alaska Native people. The collapse of salmon runs in Western Alaska in recent years has devastated many rural communities.
Government officials all agree that in rivers where salmon are scarce, fishing should be limited to subsistence use. But there is disagreement about whether subsistence fishing should be limited to rural residents, or open to all residents. Tribal and federal officials have pushed to limit fishing to rural residents. However, the state of Alaska has argued that the state constitution requires opening subsistence fishing to all Alaska residents, not just rural ones.
We find broad support for the rural subsistence priority: 67% of Alaska voters agree fishing should be limited to rural residents when salmon are scarce, compared with only 28% who say fishing should be open to all residents. Support is consistent across party and geography: 52% of Republican voters and large majorities of all regions of Alaska want to prioritize rural subsistence.
This aligns with Data for Progress’ national survey in 2023, which found that by a 2-to-1 margin, American voters think fishing should be limited to rural residents when salmon are scarce in a river.
The poll also finds wide support for banning trawling: Almost 3 in 4 Alaska voters (74%) think the federal government should ban trawling in waters off the coast of Alaska. This level of support is even higher than when Data for Progress asked the same question last year and 67% of Alaska voters supported banning trawling.
Peltola Is Still Popular, While Dunleavy Is Increasingly Unpopular, Especially Among Parents
Our 2024 survey found then-U.S. Representative Mary Peltola had the highest approval among Alaska’s statewide elected officials. Even after losing her 2024 reelection bid, Alaska voters still view Peltola more favorably than any statewide elected official. Senators Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski join Peltola as the only statewide elected officials with positive favorability margins, as Rep. Begich and Dunleavy have −5-point and −8-point favorability margins, respectively. Dunleavy has seen a 10-point drop in net favorability since Data for Progress’ 2024 survey.
Dunleavy is especially unpopular among parents of minors. As shown in the following chart of results among just Alaska voters who are parents of minors, this group views Dunleavy unfavorably by a −21-point margin. In contrast, these parents see Trump favorably by a +13-point margin.
Potential 2026 Matchups
Even with this continued popularity for Peltola, when posed with a hypothetical 2026 rematch against Begich for Alaska’s sole U.S. House seat, voters are evenly split between Peltola and Begich, reflecting a handful of survey respondents who indicated they voted for Begich in 2024, but would not in 2026. The poll also finds Peltola with a lead over current Alaska Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom in a hypothetical 2026 matchup for governor.
Campaign Contribution Limits
Alaskans will also vote in 2026 on a ballot measure that would reimpose financial limits on the amount of money that individuals and groups can give to political candidates and parties. This ballot measure appears likely to pass, with almost two-thirds (65%) of likely voters responding that they would vote Yes on this amendment come the 2026 primary elections in August.
Conclusion
These findings indicate that Alaska voters support proposals to increase funding for public education, with a majority favoring an increase to K-12 spending, a plurality supporting a large increase to the Base Student Allocation, and a majority preferring that new spending be allocated to education over the PFD. Additionally, Alaska voters support numerous policy initiatives: increasing taxes on oil companies, requiring insurance to cover 12-month contraception prescriptions, creating a new retirement program for state employees, increasing transparency in psychiatric care of minors, prioritizing rural subsistence in fishing rights, and limiting contributions to campaigns. Furthermore, while Gov. Dunleavy’s favorability has declined since last year, particularly among parents, former Rep. Peltola remains popular and is tied with Rep. Begich and leading Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom in hypothetical 2026 races.
Jason Katz-Brown (@jasonkatzbrown) is a senior advisor at Data for Progress.
Survey Methodology
From February 28 to March 7, 2025, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,008 likely voters in Alaska using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and recalled vote. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points. Results for subgroups of the sample are subject to increased margins of error. Partisanship reflected in tabulations is based on self-identified party affiliation, not partisan registration. For more information please visit dataforprogress.org/our-methodology.