Memo: Sanders Favored in Nevada
Authors: Sean McElwee, Executive Director of Data for Progress, Jason Ganz, CTO of Data for Progress, Ryan O’Donnell, Senior Polling Advisor, Data for Progress
Sanders - 35
Warren - 16
Biden - 16
Buttigieg - 15
Data for Progress conducted a poll of 1010 likely Nevada caucusgoers from 2/19/2020 through 2/21/2020. Likely caucusgoers were identified from the Nevada voter file and weighted to a likely electorate. Our margin of error is +/- 2.8 percent.
Tomorrow, Nevada will caucus. The Nevada caucuses have been undercovered by the media, but the state is the first test of how Democrats perform with Democrats of color. We find that Senator Bernie Sanders is poised for a strong victory, with Warren, Biden and Warren all lumped together. Sanders has 35 percent of the vote.
Senator Sanders continues to showcase his strengths with young voters, very liberal voters, voters under 45 and hispanic voters. Meanwhile Joe Biden continues to do best among black voters while Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg perform similarly across demographics.
The recent Democratic debate showed a clear trend of every non-Bernie Sanders candidate running to be the “alternative to Bernie Sanders”. It’s likely that whoever comes in second will themselves vying with former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg to be considered the main option to Sanders.
Speaking of Mayor Bloomberg, his favorables have absolutely plummeted since Wednesday night’s debate. He currently has a net favorable rating of -48, with 49% of likely voters viewing him very unfavorably. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren has the highest favorability, at +39. It seems Warren’s strong performance in the debate performance led voters to view Warren more favorably and turned them off of Bloomberg. This increased favorability has not translated into support for Warren, although its possible late breakers may give her some boost.
With a nearly 20 point lead over his next most supported opponent, Senator Sanders is in a strong position to solidify his frontrunner status with his showing in Nevada. From there we will see the strength of Joe Biden’s “firewall” in South Carolina (2/29), followed shortly by Super Tuesday (3/3). It should be noted however that Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll but you would certainly rather be the Sanders campaign right now then anyone else.
Note: Data for Progress presented results from 2/19-2/20 on Rising. The results presented here include our last day of fielding to account for late deciders.
