Joe Biden Maintains a Commanding Lead in the Presidential Race

By Ethan Winter and Isa Alomran

In a survey fielded from the 29th of September through October 1st, Data for Progress asked 1,146 likely voters which of the two leading presidential nominees in the upcoming presidential election they would support between the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump. Data for Progress also tested the “generic congressional ballot” (GCB), asking voters whether they were likely to support a Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. 

We find that both Democratic nominee for president Joe Biden and the Democratic Party maintain commanding leads over President Trump and the Republican Party.  

In the presidential race, we find that Biden holds a ten-percentage-point lead over Trump amongst all voters:51 percent of all voters say they would vote for Biden while41 percent say they are voting for Trump (eight percent of voters say they are “not sure” if they are voting for Biden or Trump).  

These results come soon after the first presidential debate which took place on September 29th. We find through a separate survey conducted directly following the debate that Biden emerged as a clear-cut winner who has shown the ability to grow his coalition while Trump’s continues to shrink. 

In the congressional generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by nine-points. In the GCB, Democrats trail Biden by two-points.

How Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis will impact the state of the race remains to be seen. What can be said, more definitively, is that he’s trailing badly. With just over a month until Election Day, Biden and the Democrats are in a comfortable position. 

Authorship & Methodology 

Ethan Winter is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org

Isa Alomran is an intern at Data for Progress. 

From September 30 through October 1, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,146 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.