Data for Progress Report on the State of the Race
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HOLDS A LEAD IN BOTH THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
By Ethan Winter and Danielle Deiseroth
Executive Summary
Presumptive Democratic nominee for president, former Vice President Joe Biden, leads President Donald Trump by nine percentage points.
Democrats hold a seven-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot over the Republicans.
As part of an August survey, Data for Progress asked voters who they plan to support in the upcoming presidential election between the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump. In addition, we asked voters who they support on the “generic congressional ballot” (GCB), that is, if they plan to support the Democratic or Republican candidate for the U.S. Congress in their district.
In the presidential race, we find Biden holds a nine-point margin over Trump. Both candidates enjoy high levels of support from their own party: Ninety-three percent of voters who self-identify as Democrats say they are voting for Biden, and 90 percent of Republicans who self-identify as republicans report they are voting for Trump. While only five percent of Democrats say they plan to vote for Trump, eight percent of Republicans say they plan to vote for Biden. Voters who identify as Independents or third party voters favor Biden by a nine-point margin (40 percent support Biden, 31 percent support Trump).
Voters who identify as Democrats and Republicans also express high levels of confidence in their choice: Only two percent of Democrats and Republicans are “not sure” if they are voting for Biden or Trump. However, 29 percent of voters who identify as Independent or third party are “not sure” if they will support Biden or Trump.
Overall, the Democrats hold a seven-point lead over the Republicans on the GCB: Forty-seven percent of voters say they will support the Democratic candidate, while 40 percent say they will support the Republican candidate. On the GCB, Democrats run two points behind Biden, who leads Trump by a nine-point margin. Voting attitudes are, again, correlated with partisanship. Ninety-four percent of voters who identify as Democrats say they will support the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, while 92 percent of voters who identify as Republicans say they will support the Republican candidate. Meanwhile, those who identify as Independents and third party voters favor the Democratic candidate by an eight-point margin (34 percent support the Democrat, 26 percent support the Republican). However, Independent and third party voters are also the least sure of their choice, as 40 percent report they “don’t know” if they would support the Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in their district, compared to only two percent of Democrats and five percent of Republicans.
If the general election were held tomorrow, it is clear that the Democrats would be heavy favorites in both the presidential and congressional elections. Biden leads Trump by a nine-point margin, while a generic Democratic candidate holds a 7-point lead over a generic Republican opponent. Even before a convention bump, Democrats are favored by the current national political environment.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is an analyst at Data for Progress. You can email him at ethan@dataforprogress.org.
Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Climate Data Analyst for Data for Progress. You can email her at danielle@dataforprogress.org
From August 13 through August 14, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,143 likely voters nationally using web-panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.